Extracting the Cyclical Component in Hours Worked: a Bayesian Approach

The series on average hours worked in the manufacturing sector is a key leading indicator of the U.S. business cycle. The paper deals with robust estimation of the cyclical component for the seasonally adjusted time series. This is achieved by an unobserved components model featuring an irregular component that is represented by a Gaussian mixture with two components. The mixture aims at capturing the kurtosis which characterizes the data. After presenting a Gibbs sampling scheme, we illustrate that the Gaussian mixture model provides a satisfactory representation of the data, allowing for the robust estimation of the cyclical component of per capita hours worked. Another important piece of evidence is that the outlying observations are not scattered randomly throughout the sample, but have a distinctive seasonal pattern. Therefore, seasonal adjustment plays a role. We ¯nally show that, if a °exible seasonal model is adopted for the unadjusted series, the level of outlier contamination is drastically reduced.Gaussian Mixtures, Robust signal extraction, State Space Models, Bayesian model selection, Seasonality

Electro-optical modulation at 1550 nm in an as-deposited hydrogenated amorphous silicon p-i-n waveguiding device.

Hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H) has been already considered for the objective of passive optical elements, like waveguides and ring resonators, within photonic integrated circuits at λ = 1.55 μm. However the study of its electro-optical properties is still at an early stage, therefore this semiconductor in practice is not considered for light modulation as yet. We demonstrated, for the first time, effective electrooptical modulation in a reverse biased a-Si:H p-i-n waveguiding structure. In particular, phase modulation was studied in a waveguide integrated Fabry-Perot resonator in which the Vπ·Lπ product was determined to be 63 V·cm. Characteristic switch-on and switch-off times of 14 ns were measured. The device employed a wider gap amorphous silicon carbide (a-SiC:H) film for the lower cladding layer instead of silicon oxide. In this way the highest temperature involved in the fabrication process was 170°C, which ensured the desired technological compatibility with CMOS processes. © 2011 Optical Society of America

Hydrogenated amorphous silicon multi-SOI waveguide modulator with low voltage-length product

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Extracting the Cyclical Component in Hours Worked: a Bayesian Approach

The series on average hours worked in the manufacturing sector is a key leading indicator of the U.S. business cycle. The paper deals with robust estimation of the cyclical component for the seasonally adjusted time series. This is achieved by an unobserved components model featuring an irregular component that is represented by a Gaussian mixture with two components. The mixture aims at capturing the kurtosis which characterizes the data. After presenting a Gibbs sampling scheme, we illustrate that the Gaussian mixture model provides a satisfactory representation of the data, allowing for the robust estimation of the cyclical component of per capita hours worked. Another important piece of evidence is that the outlying observations are not scattered randomly throughout the sample, but have a distinctive seasonal pattern. Therefore, seasonal adjustment plays a role. We ¯nally show that, if a °exible seasonal model is adopted for the unadjusted series, the level of outlier contamination is drastically reduced

A rare case of true carcinosarcoma of the breast

AbstractBackgroundTrue carcinosarcoma of the breast is an extremely rare condition, accounting for 0.08–0.2% of all breast malignancies.The correct definition of this tumor requires both a carcinomatous component and a malignant non-epithelial component of mesenchymal origin, without evidence of a transition zone between the two elements.Case presentationWe present a case of a 49-year-old woman presenting with a 4cm mass at the level of her left breast upper-outer quadrant with a histologic diagnosis of true carcinosarcoma of the breast.DiscussionThe most appropriate therapeutic regimens for breast carcinosarcoma are still unclear because of the rarity of this condition, but Breast Conserving Treatment (BCT) followed by adjuvant chemotherapy seems to provide a prognosis equalling that of usual Invasive Ductal Carcinoma of the breast

Pareto-Optimization of HTS CICC for High-Current Applications in Self-Field

The ENEA superconductivity laboratory developed a novel design for Cable-in-Conduit Conductors (CICCs) comprised of stacks of 2nd-generation REBCO coated conductors. In its original version, the cable was made up of 150 HTS tapes distributed in five slots, twisted along an aluminum core. In this work, taking advantage of a 2D finite element model, able to estimate the cable's current distribution in the cross-section, a multiobjective optimization procedure was implemented. The aim of optimization was to simultaneously maximize both engineering current density and total current flowing inside the tapes when operating in self-field, by varying the cross-section layout. Since the optimization process involved both integer and real geometrical variables, the choice of an evolutionary search algorithm was strictly necessary. The use of an evolutionary algorithm in the frame of a multiple objective optimization made it an obliged choice to numerically approach the problem using a nonstandard fast-converging optimization algorithm. By means of this algorithm, the Pareto frontiers for the different configurations were calculated, providing a powerful tool for the designer to achieve the desired preliminary operating conditions in terms of engineering current density and/or total current, depending on the specific application field, that is, power transmission cable and bus bar systems

Characterization of HTS coils for superconducting rotating electric machine applications : challenges, material selection, winding process, and testing

The second-generation high-Temperature superconducting tapes (2G-HTS) such as the REBCO coated conductors are known for their strong mechanical properties and high current carrying capacity with low ac losses compared with first-generation HTS tapes as well as low-Temperature superconductors. Therefore, they seem to be good candidates to assemble coils for superconducting rotating electric machines (SuREMs). In this article, to investigate the influence of a soft magnetic composite (SMC) material on the dc and ac HTS coil performances at cryogenic temperatures, GdBCO-and YBCO-based commercial tapes from different manufactures were used to assemble ten HTS coils in double-pancake configuration. These tapes were wound using two different core structures, i.e., fixed and movable cores, having the same circular shape but different diameters as well as materials, i.e., fiberglass and SMC. Critical currents and ac transport current losses of these coils were measured using the electrical method. To evaluate the parallel and perpendicular components of the profile of magnetic flux density for each assembled HTS coil, a finite element model has been developed using Maxwell 2D. Eventually, the performance of different coils for SuREM application was discussed

A case of 20-week abortion in a rare communicating rudimentary horn of a misinterpreted unicornuate uterus, incorrectly diagnosed as bicornuate: A serious hazard!

Female genital malformations, as the unicornuate uterus, are deviations from normal anatomy that could impair the reproductive potential of a woman or her health. We present a rare case of a 20-week spontaneous abortion in a 24 years old patient affected by a misunderstood unicornuate uterus with communicating rudimentary horn, previously diagnosed as bicornuate, and for this reason subjected to induction of abortive labor, using mifepristone and gemeprost. Following the ultrasound exam and MRI, performed due to the failure of the abortive procedure, revealed the diagnosis of unicornuate uterus with (not clear) communicating accessory horn pregnancy, then treated with laparotomy. 3D-ultrasonography, and above all MRI, should be performed in all those cases of suspected uterine anomalies, especially in presence of pregnancy or abortion, with the aim of avoiding wrong treatments, which leads to a high risk of uterine rupture. In this case, given the uncertainty of imaging exams performed in such an advanced second trimester of pregnancy, only the surgical approach was able to discover the real communication

Urine 8-isoprostane in relation to adiposity and insulin resistance in individuals at high cardiometabolic risk

Oxidative stress has been implicated in the pathogenesis of many conditions, including insulin resistance and obesity. However, in vivo data concerning these relationships are scarce and conflicting. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the association of oxidative stress with abdominal adiposity and insulin resistance in individuals at high cardiometabolic risk

Improvement in accuracy of diagnosis of carotid artery stenosis with duplex ultrasound scanning with combined use of linear array 7.5 MHz and convex array 3.5 MHz probes: validation versus 489 arteriographic procedures1 1Competition of interest: none.Published online Mar 6, 2003.

AbstractObjective: Validity of a method to improve the accuracy of carotid artery duplex scanning was tested in comparison with arteriography.Study Design: In 489 patients who had not previously undergone arteriography, 978 carotid arteries were examined with duplex ultrasound scanning. In method A, a linear array 7.5 MHz transducer with pulsed-wave 4.7 MHz Doppler scanning was used. For the diagnosis and grading of carotid stenosis, peak systolic and end-diastolic velocity of the Doppler waves were recorded. Method B consisted of complete ultrasound imaging and color-flow mapping with a convex array 3.5 MHz transducer with pulsed-wave 2.8 MHz Doppler scanning in all patients who had previously undergone method A. Further velocity measurements were performed at the sites of stenosis. The results of methods A and B were compared with data from neurologic assessment and arteriographic studies.Results: Method B showed significantly higher diagnostic agreement with arteriography than did method A (K 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.87–0.93 vs 0.79–0.85; P < .05), and the number of mistakes in grading stenosis was significantly lower (primarily because of decreased overestimation) in patients with internal carotid kinking (>60 degrees of angulation) (P < .05), distal stenosis (>20 mm from bifurcation) (P < .01), or wide acoustic shadowing (>1 cm) (P < .01) and in those without these conditions (P < .05). Compared with arteriography, diagnostic accuracy with the new method proved higher for carotid stenoses 50% or greater, 60% or greater, 70% or greater, and 80% or greater; no statistically significant difference was found for carotid stenosis 96% or greater or for carotid occlusion. Compared with data from neurologic assessment and arteriography, method B proved more accurate than method A in designating patients for carotid endarterectomy (P = .014).Conclusions: The new method significantly improved diagnostic reliability of duplex ultrasound scanning, especially in carotid arteries with kinking, distal stenosis, or wide acoustic shadowing (32.2% of all arteries studied). In clinical practice, we suggest additional use of a lower frequency transducer in cases in which these three conditions are found or suspected at first scanning