Estimating HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis need and impact in Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia: A geospatial and risk-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), a WHO-recommended HIV prevention method for people at high risk for acquiring HIV, is being increasingly implemented in many countries. Setting programmatic targets, particularly in generalised epidemics, could incorporate estimates of the size of the population likely to be eligible for PrEP using incidence-based thresholds. We estimated the proportion of men and women who would be eligible for PrEP and the number of HIV infections that could be averted in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia using prioritisation based on age, sex, geography, and markers of risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analysed the latest nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia to determine the proportion of adults who report behavioural markers of risk for HIV infection. We used prevalence ratios (PRs) to quantify the association of these factors with HIV status. Using a multiplier method, we combined these proportions with the number of new HIV infections by district, derived from district-level modelled HIV estimates. Based on these numbers, different scenarios were analysed for the minimum number of person-years on PrEP needed to prevent 1 HIV infection (NNP). An estimated total of 38,000, 108,000, and 46,000 new infections occurred in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia in 2016, corresponding with incidence rates of 0.43, 0.63, and 0.57 per 100 person-years. In these countries, 9%-20% of new infections occurred among people with a sexually transmitted infection (STI) in the past 12 months and 40%-42% among people with either an STI or a non-regular sexual partner (NP) in the past 12 months (STINP). The models estimate that around 50% of new infections occurred in districts with incidence rates ≥1.0% in Mozambique and Zambia and ≥0.5% in Malawi. In Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, 35.1%, 21.9%, and 12.5% of the population live in these high-incidence districts. In the most parsimonious scenario, if women aged 15-34 years and men 20-34 years with an STI in the past 12 months living in high-incidence districts were to take PrEP, it would take a minimum of 65.8 person-years on PrEP to avert 1 HIV infection per year in Malawi, 35.2 in Mozambique, and 16.4 in Zambia. Our findings suggest that 3,300, 5,200, and 1,700 new infections could be averted per year in the 3 countries, respectively. Limitations of our study are that these values are based on modelled estimates of HIV incidence and self-reported behavioural risk factors from national surveys. CONCLUSIONS: A large proportion of new HIV infections in these 3 African countries were estimated to occur among people who had either an STI or an NP in the past year, providing a straightforward means to set PrEP targets. Greater prioritisation of PrEP by district, sex, age, and behavioural risk factors resulted in lower NNPs thereby increasing PrEP cost-effectiveness, but also diminished the overall impact on reducing new infections

Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: Matching Demand and Supply with Quality and Efficiency in a High-Volume Campaign in Iringa Region, Tanzania

Hally Mahler and colleagues evaluate a six-week voluntary medical male circumcision campaign in Iringa province of Tanzania, providing a model for matching supply with demand for services and showing that high-volume circumcisions can be performed without compromising client safety

Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of condomless-sex-concentrated PrEP in KwaZulu-Natal accounting for drug resistance

INTRODUCTION: Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the form of tenofovir-disoproxil-fumarate/emtricitabine is being implemented in selected sites in South Africa. Addressing outstanding questions on PrEP cost-effectiveness can inform further implementation. METHODS: We calibrated an individual-based model to KwaZulu-Natal to predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of PrEP, with use concentrated in periods of condomless sex, accounting for effects on drug resistance. We consider (i) PrEP availability for adolescent-girls-and-young-women (aged 15-24; AGYW) and female sex workers (FSW), and (ii) availability for everyone aged 15-64. Our primary analysis represents a level of PrEP use hypothesized to be attainable by future PrEP programmes. RESULTS: In the context of PrEP use in adults aged 15-64 there was a predicted 33% reduction in incidence, and 36% reduction in women aged 15-24. PrEP was cost effective, including in a range of sensitivity analyses, although with substantially reduced (cost) effectiveness under a policy of ART initiation with efavirenz- rather than dolutegravir-based regimens due to PrEP undermining ART effectiveness by increasing HIV drug resistance. CONCLUSIONS: PrEP use concentrated during time periods of condomless sex has the potential to substantively impact HIV incidence and be cost-effective

Provider Attitudes toward the Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Scale-Up in Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania and Zimbabwe.

Countries participating in voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) scale-up have adopted most of six elements of surgical efficiency, depending on national policy. However, effective implementation of these elements largely depends on providers' attitudes and subsequent compliance. We explored the concordance between recommended practices and providers' perceptions toward the VMMC efficiency elements, in part to inform review of national policies. As part of Systematic Monitoring of the VMMC Scale-up (SYMMACS), we conducted a survey of VMMC providers in Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. SYMMACS assessed providers' attitudes and perceptions toward these elements in 2011 and 2012. A restricted analysis using 2012 data to calculate unadjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the country effect on each attitudinal outcome was done using logistic regression. As only two countries allow more than one cadre to perform the surgical procedure, odds ratios looking at country effect were adjusted for cadre effect for these two countries. Qualitative data from open-ended responses were used to triangulate with quantitative analyses. This analysis showed concordance between each country's policies and provider attitudes toward the efficiency elements. One exception was task-shifting, which is not authorized in South Africa or Zimbabwe; providers across all countries approved this practice. The decision to adopt efficiency elements is often based on national policies. The concordance between the policies of each country and provider attitudes bodes well for compliance and effective implementation. However, study findings suggest that there may be need to consult providers when developing national policies.\u

Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: Strategies for Meeting the Human Resource Needs of Scale-Up in Southern and Eastern Africa

Kelly Curran and colleagues conducted a program review to identify human resource approaches that are being used to improve voluntary medical male circumcision volume and efficiency, identifying several innovative responses to human resource challenges

Implementation and resource needs for long-acting PrEP in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION: Several low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are preparing to introduce long-acting pre-exposure prophylaxis (LAP). Amid multiple pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) options and constrained funding, decision-makers could benefit from systematic implementation planning and aligned costs. We reviewed national costed implementation plans (CIPs) to describe relevant implementation inputs and activities (domains) for informing the costed rollout of LAP. We assessed how primary costing evidence aligned with those domains. METHODS: We conducted a rapid review of CIPs for oral PrEP and family planning (FP) to develop a consensus of implementation domains, and a scoping review across nine electronic databases for publications on PrEP costing in LMICs between January 2010 and June 2022. We extracted cost data and assessed alignment with the implementation domains and the Global Health Costing Consortium principles. RESULTS: We identified 15 implementation domains from four national PrEP plans and FP-CIP template; only six were in all sources. We included 66 full-text manuscripts, 10 reported LAP, 13 (20%) were primary cost studies-representing seven countries, and none of the 13 included LAP. The 13 primary cost studies included PrEP commodities (n = 12), human resources (n = 11), indirect costs (n = 11), other commodities (n = 10), demand creation (n = 9) and counselling (n = 9). Few studies costed integration into non-HIV services (n = 5), above site costs (n = 3), supply chains and logistics (n = 3) or policy and planning (n = 2), and none included the costs of target setting, health information system adaptations or implementation research. Cost units and outcomes were variable (e.g. average per person-year). DISCUSSION: LAP planning will require updating HIV prevention policies, technical assistance for logistical and clinical support, expanding beyond HIV platforms, setting PrEP achievement targets overall and disaggregated by method, extensive supply chain and logistics planning and support, as well as updating health information systems to monitor multiple PrEP methods with different visit schedules. The 15 implementation domains were variable in reviewed studies. PrEP primary cost and budget data are necessary for new product introduction and should match implementation plans with financing. CONCLUSIONS: As PrEP services expand to include LAP, decision-makers need a framework, tools and a process to support countries in planning the systematic rollout and costing for LAP

Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: Modeling the Impact and Cost of Expanding Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in Eastern and Southern Africa

Emmanuel Njeuhmeli and colleagues estimate the impact and cost of scaling up adult medical male circumcision in 13 priority countries in eastern and southern Africa, finding that reaching 80% coverage and maintaining it until 2025 would avert 3.36 million new HIV infections

Point-of-care testing with Xpert HPV for single-visit, screen-and-treat for cervical cancer prevention: a demonstration study in South Africa

Abstract Human papillomavirus (HPV)-based screen-and-treat (SAT) is recommended but implementation presents operational challenges. We implemented HPV-SAT at a research site in Khayelitsha, South Africa, screening 3062 women aged 30–65 years (44% women living with HIV [WHIV]). All were screened using point-of-care Xpert HPV and almost all received their HPV results on the same day. HPV-positivity occurred in 41.5% of WHIV and 17.4% of women without HIV (WNoH) reducing to 26.2% in WHIV and 10.4% in WNoH applying treatment eligibility criteria based on high viral load in the channels detecting HPV16, 18, 45, 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 52, 58. Among those eligible for treatment, 91.3% were considered suitable for ablative therapy, and 94.6% underwent thermal ablation on the same day, with no serious adverse events. Twelve months later, 39.0% of WHIV and 65.2% of WNoH treated with ablative therapy were clear of HPV. In women who were HPV-positive but ineligible for treatment, 19.1% and 12.9% had histologically-confirmed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) at 12 months. SAT programs need to weigh trade-offs between overtreatment versus delayed or no treatment for women who test positive for HPV. Treatment modalities for precancerous lesions need to be improved

Costs and impacts of scaling up voluntary medical male circumcision in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND:Given the proven effectiveness of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) in preventing the spread of HIV, Tanzania is scaling up VMMC as an HIV prevention strategy. This study will inform policymakers about the potential costs and benefits of scaling up VMMC services in Tanzania. METHODOLOGY:The analysis first assessed the unit costs of delivering VMMC at the facility level in three regions-Iringa, Kagera, and Mbeya-via three currently used VMMC service delivery models (routine, campaign, and mobile/island outreach). Subsequently, using these unit cost data estimates, the study used the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) to estimate the costs and impact of a scaled-up VMMC program. RESULTS:Increasing VMMC could substantially reduce HIV infection. Scaling up adult VMMC to reach 87.9% coverage by 2015 would avert nearly 23,000 new adult HIV infections through 2015 and an additional 167,500 from 2016 through 2025-at an additional cost of US$253.7 million through 2015 and US$302.3 million from 2016 through 2025. Average cost per HIV infection averted would be US$11,300 during 2010-2015 and US$3,200 during 2010-2025. Scaling up VMMC in Tanzania will yield significant net benefits (benefits of treatment costs averted minus the cost of performing circumcisions) in the long run-around US$4,200 in net benefits for each infection averted. CONCLUSION:VMMC could have an immediate impact on HIV transmission, but the full impact on prevalence and deaths will only be apparent in the longer term because VMMC averts infections some years into the future among people who have been circumcised. Given the health and economic benefits of investing in VMMC, the scale-up of services should continue to be a central component of the national HIV prevention strategy in Tanzania

Correction: Age Targeting of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Programs Using the Decision Makers' Program Planning Toolkit (DMPPT) 2.0.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0156909.]