Burden, duration and costs of hospital bed closures due to acute gastroenteritis in England per winter, 2010/11-2015/16.

BACKGROUND: Bed closures due to acute gastroenteritis put hospitals under pressure each winter. In England, the National Health Service (NHS) has monitored the winter situation for all acute trusts since 2010/11. AIM: To estimate the burden, duration and costs of hospital bed closures due to acute gastroenteritis in winter. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of routinely collected time-series data of bed closures due to diarrhoea and vomiting was conducted for the winters 2010/11 to 2015/16. Two key issues were addressed by imputing non-randomly missing values at provider level, and filtering observations to a range of dates recorded in all six winters. The lowest and highest values imputed were taken to represent the best- and worst-case scenarios. Bed-days were costed using NHS reference costs, and potential staff absence costs were based on previous studies. FINDINGS: In the best-to-worst case, a median of 88,000-113,000 beds were closed due to gastroenteritis each winter. Of these, 19.6-20.4% were unoccupied. On average, 80% of providers were affected, and had closed beds for a median of 15-21 days each winter. Hospital costs of closed beds were £5.7-£7.5 million, which increased to £6.9-£10.0 million when including staff absence costs due to illness. CONCLUSIONS: The median number of hospital beds closed due to acute gastroenteritis per winter was equivalent to all general and acute hospital beds in England being unavailable for a median of 0.88-1.12 days. Costs for hospitals are high but vary with closures each winter

Multiple long-term conditions within households and use of health and social care: a retrospective cohort study

Background: The daily management of long-term conditions falls primarily on individuals and informal carers, but the impact of household context on health and social care activity among people with multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs) is understudied. Aim: To test whether co-residence with a person with MLTCs (compared with a co-resident without MLTCs) is associated with utilisation and cost of primary, community, secondary health care, and formal social care. Design & setting: Linked data from health providers and local government in Barking and Dagenham for a retrospective cohort of people aged ≥50 years in two-person households in 2016–2018. Method: Two-part regression models were applied to estimate annualised use and cost of hospital, primary, community, mental health, and social care by MLTC status of individuals and co-residents, adjusted for age, sex, and deprivation. Applicability at the national level was tested using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Results: Forty-eight per cent of people with MLTCs in two-person households were co-resident with another person with MLTCs. They were 1.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.00 to 1.30) times as likely to have community care activity and 1.24 (95% CI = 0.99 to 1.54) times as likely to have mental health care activity compared with those co-resident with a healthy person. They had more primary care visits (8.5 [95% CI = 8.2 to 8.8] versus 7.9 [95% CI = 7.7 to 8.2]) and higher primary care costs. Outpatient care and elective admissions did not differ. Findings in national data were similar. Conclusion: Care utilisation for people with MLTCs varies by household context. There may be potential for connecting health and community service input across household members

Understanding the impact of interventions to prevent antimicrobial resistant infections in the long-term care facility; a review and practical guide to mathematical modelling

(1) To systematically search for all dynamic mathematical models of infectious disease transmission in long-term care facilities (LTCFs); (2) to critically evaluate models of interventions against antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in this setting; and (3) to develop a checklist for hospital epidemiologists and policy makers by which to distinguish good quality models of AMR in LTCFs. The CINAHL, EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE, and Scopus databases were systematically searched for studies of dynamic mathematical models set in LTCFs. Models of interventions targeting methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in LTCFs were critically assessed. Using this analysis, we developed a checklist for good quality mathematical models of AMR in LTCFs. Overall, 18 papers described mathematical models that characterized the spread of infectious diseases in LTCFs, but no models of AMR in gram-negative bacteria in this setting were described. Future models of AMR in LTCFs require a more robust methodology (ie, formal model fitting to data and validation), greater transparency regarding model assumptions, setting-specific data, realistic and current setting-specific parameters, and inclusion of movement dynamics between LTCFs and hospitals. Mathematical models of AMR in gram-negative bacteria in the LTCF setting, where these bacteria are increasingly becoming prevalent, are needed to help guide infection prevention and control. Improvements are required to develop outputs of sufficient quality to help guide interventions and policy in the future. We suggest a checklist of criteria to be used as a practical guide to determine whether a model is robust enough to test policy

Excess length of stay and mortality due to Clostridium difficile infection: a multi-state modelling approach.

BACKGROUND: The burden of healthcare-associated infections, such as healthcare-acquired Clostridium difficile (HA-CDI), can be expressed in terms of additional length of stay (LOS) and mortality. However, previous estimates have varied widely. Although some have considered time of infection onset (time-dependent bias), none considered the impact of severity of HA-CDI; this was the primary aim of this study. METHODS: The daily risk of in-hospital death or discharge was modelled using a Cox proportional hazards model, fitted to data on patients discharged in 2012 from a large English teaching hospital. We treated HA-CDI status as a time-dependent variable and adjusted for confounders. In addition, a multi-state model was developed to provide a clinically intuitive metric of delayed discharge associated with non-severe and severe HA-CDI respectively. FINDINGS: Data comprised 157 (including 48 severe) HA-CDI cases among 42,618 patients. HA-CDI reduced the daily discharge rate by nearly one-quarter [hazard ratio (HR): 0.72; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.61-0.84] and increased the in-hospital death rate by 75% compared with non-HA-CDI patients (HR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.16-2.62). Whereas overall HA-CDI resulted in a mean excess LOS of about seven days (95% CI: 3.5-10.9), severe cases had an average excess LOS which was twice (∼11.6 days; 95% CI: 3.6-19.6) that of the non-severe cases (about five days; 95% CI: 1.1-9.5). CONCLUSION: HA-CDI contributes to patients' expected LOS and risk of mortality. However, when quantifying the health and economic burden of hospital-onset of HA-CDI, the heterogeneity in the impact of HA-CDI should be accounted for

Seasonality of urinary tract infections in the United Kingdom in different age groups: longitudinal analysis of The Health Improvement Network (THIN)

Evidence regarding the seasonality of urinary tract infection (UTI) consultations in primary care is conflicting and methodologically poor. To our knowledge, this is the first study to determine whether this seasonality exists in the UK, identify the peak months and describe seasonality by age. The monthly number of UTI consultations (N = 992 803) and nitrofurantoin and trimethoprim prescriptions (N = 1 719 416) during 2008-2015 was extracted from The Health Improvement Network (THIN), a large nationally representative UK dataset of electronic patient records. Negative binomial regression models were fitted to these data to investigate seasonal fluctuations by age group (14-17, 18-24, 25-45, 46-69, 70-84, 85+) and by sex, accounting for a change in the rate of UTI over the study period. A September to November peak in UTI consultation incidence was observed for ages 14-69. This seasonality progressively faded in older age groups and no seasonality was found in individuals aged 85+, in whom UTIs were most common. UTIs were rare in males but followed a similar seasonal pattern than in females. We show strong evidence of an autumnal seasonality for UTIs in individuals under 70 years of age and a lack of seasonality in the very old. These findings should provide helpful information when interpreting surveillance reports and the results of interventions against UTI

Associations between parental mental health and other family factors and healthcare utilisation among children and young people: a retrospective, cross-sectional study of linked healthcare data

Objective: To identify the degree to which parental diagnosis of depression or other long-term conditions, parental health-seeking behaviours and household factors were associated with a healthcare utilisation among children and young people (CYP) (0-15 years). Design: Retrospective, cross-sectional study of electronic health records, from 25 252 patients registered at a large, London-based primary care provider. The associations between children's healthcare utilisation and the characteristics of the child, their parents/carers and their household structure were examined using multivariable regression. Results: Controlling for parental utilisation, parental depression (vs not) was significantly associated with increased healthcare utilisation for CYP. Odds ratios for CYP with siblings=1.41 (95% CI 1.10 to 1.80) for emergency department (ED) attendances, 1.67 (95% CI 1.32 to 2.11) for outpatient appointments, 1.47 (95% CI 1.07 to 2.03) for inpatient admission, and rate rato=1.28 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.78) for general practitioner (GP) consultations.After adjusting for child and parental characteristics, parental general practice attendance (+1 from mean) was predictive of increased CYP general practice attendance, rate ratio 1.07 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.08) for CYP with siblings. Parental ED attendance also increased the risk of CYP ED attendance, with OR 1.27 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.44) for CYP with siblings. Conclusions: Parental depression is associated with increased utilisation of ED, outpatient and inpatient services by CYP, as well as with increased GP consultations among adolescents. Our results demonstrate that healthcare utilisation by CYP is associated with the health-seeking behaviour of adults in their household