Russia in a changing climate

Climate change will shape the future of Russia, and vice versa, regardless of who rules in the Kremlin. The world\u27s largest country is warming faster than Earth as a whole, occupies more than half the Arctic Ocean coastline, and is waging a carbon-intensive war while increasingly isolated from the international community and its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Officially, the Russian government argues that, as a major exporter of hydrocarbons, Russia benefits from maintaining global reliance on fossil fuels and from climate change itself, because warming may increase the extent and quality of its arable land, open a new year-round Arctic sea route, and make its harsh climate more livable. Drawing on the collective expertise of a large group of Russia-focused social scientists and a comprehensive literature review, we challenge this narrative. We find that Russia suffers from a variety of impacts due to climate change and is poorly prepared to adapt to these impacts. The literature review reveals that the fates of Russia\u27s hydrocarbon-dependent economy, centralized political system, and climate-impacted population are intertwined and that research is needed on this evolving interrelationship, as global temperatures rise and the international economy decarbonizes in response. This article is categorized under: Policy and Governance \u3e National Climate Change Policy Trans-disciplinary Perspectives \u3e National Reviews Trans-disciplinary Perspectives \u3e Regional Reviews. © 2023 The Authors. WIREs Climate Change published by Wiley Periodicals LLC

State-society relations in contemporary Russia: New forms of political and social contention

Much existing analysis of Russian state–society relations focuses on public, active forms of contention such as the “opposition” and protest movements. There is need for a more holistic perspective which adds study of a range of overt, “co-opted”, and hidden forms of interaction to this focus on public contention. A theoretical and empirical basis for understanding state–society relations in today's Russia involves broadening the concept of “contentious politics” to include models of “consentful” as well as “dissentful” contention. A diffused model of contentious politics can situate claim-making along the axes of consentful and dissentful motivations, and compliant and contentious behaviours

Replication data for: The Apathetic Democrat and Other Non-Activists: University Students in Post-Soviet Transition

During critical moments of political uncertainty, university students are traditionally a dynamic force in society. Why, then, have university students been politically inactive during the period of sweeping political and economic transformation across the former Soviet republics? Two factors account for student passivity: the behavior of the state and the political attitudes of students. In Russia, the state acted first with extreme coercion and then with extreme permissiveness and did not provoke students by alternately liberalizing and cracking down. The students, for their part, generally supported the leadership-initiated transition to a democratic political system and market economy. Most large-scale student protests of the magnitude of the Tiananmen Square, Czechoslovak, or other protests were preempted by swift and extensive reform that corresponded with student preferenc es. In Central Asia, states balanced liberalism and repression more precariously, but like in Russia, their reform policies generally corresponded with student preferences. Student protests were uncommon because both the students and governments of Central Asia shared a reluctance to reform. These findings do not support theories of protest which focus on psychological motivations, resources, and economic opportunities. Instead, the findings suggest that attitudes play a critical role in determining political behavior, specifically, in their link with the macro-political situation. Pro-reform attitudes in Russia nurture political apathy. Pro-reform attitudes in Central Asia nurture quite the opposite. I provide evidence from an original survey of over 2,000 students chos en at random from the physics, economics, history, and philology departments of state universities in Russia (Novosibirsk, Kazan, Moscow), Ukraine (Kiev, Kharkiv, Lviv), and Central Asia (Bishkek, Almaty, Dushanbe)

Non‐Governmental Monitoring of Local Governments Increases Compliance with Central Mandates: A National‐Scale Field Experiment in China

Central governments face compliance problems when they rely on local governments to implement policy. In authoritarian political systems, these challenges are pronounced because local governments do not face citizens at the polls. In a national-scale, randomized field experiment in China, we test whether a public, non-governmental rating of municipal governments' compliance with central mandates to disclose information about the management of pollution increased compliance. We find significant and positive treatment effects on compliance after only one year that persist with reinforcement into a second post-treatment year. The public rating appears to decrease the costs of monitoring compliance for the central government without increasing public and media attention to pollution, highlighting when this mode of governance is likely to emerge. These results reveal important roles that nonstate actors can play in enhancing the accountability of local governments in authoritarian political systems

Expert opinion on extinction risk and climate change adaptation for biodiversity

Abstract Despite projections of biodiversity loss and proposed adaptations to climate change, few data exist on the feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation strategies in minimizing biodiversity loss. Given the urgent need for action, scientific experts can fill critical information gaps by providing rapid and discerning risk assessment. A survey of 2,329 biodiversity experts projects, on average, that 9.5% of species will become extinct due to climate change within the next 100 years. This average projection is low relative to previously published values but substantial in absolute terms, because it amounts to a loss of hundreds of thousands of species over the next century. The average projection increases to 21% when experts are asked to estimate the percentage of species that will become extinct within the next 100 years due to climate change in combination with other causes. More than three-quarters of respondents reported being uncertain about their extinction estimates. A majority of experts preferred protected areas or corridors to reduce extinction risk but identified ex situ conservation and no intervention as the most feasible strategies. Experts also suggest that managed relocation of species, a particular adaptation strategy, is justifiable and effective in some situations but not others. Justifiable circumstances include the prevention of species extinction and overcoming human-made barriers to dispersal, and while experts are divided on the potential effectiveness of managed relocation for most taxonomic groups, higher percentages predict it effective for woody plants, terrestrial insects, and mammals. Most experts are open to the potential benefits of managed relocation but are concerned about unintended harmful consequences, particularly putting non-target species at risk of extinction. On balance, published biodiversity scientists feel that managed relocation, despite controversy about it, can be part of the conservation adaptation portfolio