Deriving Supply-side Variables to Extend Geodemographic Classification

The traditional proprietary geodemographic information systems that are on the market today use well-established methodologies. Demographic indicators are selected as a proxy for affluence and are then often linked to customer databases to derive a measure of the level of consumption expected from the different area typologies. However, these systems ignore fundamental relationships in the retail market by focusing upon demand characteristics in a ‘vacuum’ and ignore the supply side and consumer-supplier interaction. This paper argues that there may be considerable advantages to including supply-side indicators within geodemographic systems. Whilst the term ‘supply’ in this context might imply the number of consumer services already in an area, equally important for understanding demand are variables such as the supply of jobs and houses. We suggest that profiling an area in terms of its labour market characteristics gives a better insight into the income chain while the supply of houses could be argued to be a crucial factor in household formation that in turn will impact upon demographic structure. Using the regional example of Yorkshire and Humberside in northern England, we indicate how a suite of supply-side variables relating to the labour market can be assembled and used alongside a suite of demand variables to generate a new area classification. Spatial interaction models are calibrated to derive some of the variables that take into account zonal self-containment and catchment size

Understanding Geodemographic Classification: Creating The Building Blocks For An Extension

Despite the inclusion of some non-Census variables, the traditional proprietary geodemographic classification systems remain purely demand based and static. Nevertheless it has been shown that geodemographics can be extended using supply-side and change variables to create a classification system that measures small areas on the characteristics of the labour market and their propensity to change over time, in addition to the likely levels of affluence more commonly found in such systems. This paper presents a number of methods that will later be used to evaluate the success of adding these supply-side and change variables. A static demand classification is created in the style of traditional geodemographic system. Various techniques are then used to evaluate the robustness of the classification and to identify the most important cluster formative variables. Furthermore, this classification is benchmarked against an existing geodemographic system, Experían Ltd's GB MOSAIC system. It is hoped that this will show that the demand variables used here provide a suitable base to operationalise the theories behind extending geodemographics. In order to show how the evaluation techniques can be used to monitor the success of adding different supply-side and dynamic datasets, a suite of property transaction variables are added to the classification. The effect of these variables upon the robustness of the taxonomy and the importance of the individual variables is then displayed

Information-based agency

Successful negotiators look beyond a purely utilitarian view. We propose a new agent architecture that integrates the utilitarian, information, and semantic views allowing the definition of strategies that take these three dimensions into account. Information-based agency values the information in dialogues in the context of a communication language based on a structured ontology and on the notion of commitment. This abstraction unifies measures such as trust, reputation, and reliability in a single framework

Unifying trust, honour and reliability

An argumentation based negotiation model is supported by information theory. Argumentative dialogues change the models of agents with respect to ongoing relationships. Trust and Honour are key components. Trust measures expected deviations of behaviour in the execution of commitments. Honour measures the expected integrity of the arguments exchanged. We understand rhetorical moves in dialogues as actions to project the current relationships into the future. © 2008 IEEE

A map of trust between trading partners

A pair of 'trust maps' give a fine-grained view of an agent's accumulated, time-discounted belief that the enactment of commitments by another agent will be in-line with what was promised, and that the observed agent will act in a way that respects the confidentiality of previously passed information. The structure of these maps is defined in terms of a categorisation of utterances and the ontology. Various summary measures are then applied to these maps to give a succinct view of trust. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2008

An agent architecture for an uncertain world

Successful negotiators look beyond a purely utilitarian view. We propose a new agent architecture that was inspired by the observation that "Everything that an agent says gives away (valuable) information." It is intended for agents who are uncertain about their environment. Information-based agency uses tools from information theory, and includes techniques for managing information exchange including: the acceptance of contracts, the estimation of trust, reliability, honour and confidence. © 2008 IEEE

An agent supports constructivist and ecological rationality

An agent architecture supports the two forms of deliberation used by human agents. The work is founded on the two forms of rationality described by the two Nobel Laureates Friedrich Hayek and Vernon Smith. Cartesian, constructivist rationalism leads to game theory, decision theory and logical models. Ecological rationalism leads to deliberative actions that are derived from agents' prior interactions and are not designed; i.e., they are strictly emergent. This paper aims to address the scant attention paid by the multiagent systems community to the predominant form of deliberation used by mankind. © 2009 IEEE