Jihadist Foreign Fighter Phenomenon in Western Europe: A Low-Probability, High-Impact Threat

The phenomenon of foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq is making headlines. Their involvement in the atrocities committed by terrorist groups such as the so-called “Islamic State” and Jabhat al-Nusra have caused grave concern and public outcry in the foreign fighters’ European countries of origin. While much has been written about these foreign fighters and the possible threat they pose, the impact of this phenomenon on Western European societies has yet to be documented. This Research Paper explores four particular areas where this impact is most visible: a) violent incidents associated with (returned) foreign fighters, b) official and political responses linked to these incidents, c) public opinion, and d) anti-Islam reactions linked to these incidents. The authors conclude that the phenomenon of jihadist foreign fighters in European societies should be primarily regarded as a social and political threat, not a physical one. They consider the phenomenon of European jihadist foreign fighters a “low-probability, high-impact” threat

Returning Western Foreign Fighters: The Case of Afghanistan, Bosnia and Somalia

Authorities are increasingly worried about the large number of Western foreign fighters present in Syria. However, the conflict in Syria is not the first to attract foreign fighters. In this Background Note, Jeanine de Roy van Zuijdewijn and Prof. Dr. Edwin Bakker investigate three historical cases of foreign fighting: Afghanistan (1980s), Bosnia (1990s) and Somalia (2000s). In this Background Note they aim to give insight into what happened to these foreign fighters after their fight abroad had ended. The authors distinguish eight possible pathways for foreign fighters that can help to contribute to a more nuanced understanding of this complex phenomenon

Convergence of the Salience of Terrorism in the European Union Before and After Terrorist Attacks

Many European countries have been the target of jihadist terrorist attacks between 2015 and 2017. While the chance of becoming a victim of a terrorist attack is low, terrorism scholars have emphasized that terrorism does not revolve around statistics and casualty numbers. Terrorists use attacks to reach an audience and affect groups beyond the direct victims. To this date, little is known about how terrorist attacks might affect the salience of terrorism beyond national borders. This paper investigates possible convergence of issue salience of terrorism among citizens within the European Union for ten jihadist attacks in the period 2015–2017 using Eurobarometer survey data. The results indicate that it is not simply a question of convergence or divergence of salience of terrorism after a terrorist attack. The connection is multidirectional and depending upon a variety of factors. Most importantly, we observed convergence on the EU-level, but divergence on the national level. This raises important questions about the transnationality of the effects of terrorism. As this research does not test nor find a causal mechanism and is solely dependent on existing data, further research is necessary to test some of its findings

Pathways of Foreign Fighters: Policy Options and Their (Un)Intended Consequences

In this Policy Brief, Dr. Alastair Reed, Jeanine de Roy van Zuijdewijn and Prof. Dr. Edwin Bakker look at the (un)intended consequences of policies addressing the foreign fighter phenomenon on the different pathways foreign fighters could take once they have arrived in Syria or Iraq. They specifically focus on four policies: reintegration programmes, prosecution of returning foreign fighters, revoking nationality of foreign fighters and finally, military interventions against foreign fighters