Effects of climate change and land management on soil organic carbon dynamics and carbon leaching in northwestern Europe

Climate change and land management practices are projected to significantly affect soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leaching from soils. In this modelling study, we adopted the Century model to simulate past (1906-2012), present, and future (2013-2100) SOC and DOC levels for sandy and loamy soils typical of northwestern European conditions under three land use types (forest, grassland, and arable land) and several future scenarios addressing climate change and land management change. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the Century model has been applied to assess the effects of climate change and land management on DOC concentrations and leaching rates, which, in combination with SOC, play a major role in metal transport through soil. The simulated current SOC levels were generally in line with the observed values for the different kinds of soil and land use types. The climate change scenarios result in a decrease in both SOC and DOC for the agricultural systems, whereas for the forest systems, SOC is projected to slightly increase and DOC to decrease. An analysis of the sole effects of changes in temperature and changes in precipitation showed that, for SOC, the temperature effect predominates over the precipitation effect, whereas for DOC the precipitation effect is more prominent. A reduction in the application rates of fertilisers under the land management scenario leads to a decrease in the SOC stocks and the DOC leaching rates for the arable land systems, but it has a negligible effect on SOC and DOC levels for the grassland systems. Our study demonstrated the ability of the Century model to simulate climate change and agricultural management effects on SOC dynamics and DOC leaching, providing a robust tool for the assessment of carbon sequestration and the implications for contaminant transport in soils

The Impact of Climate Change on Metal Transport in a Lowland Catchment

This study investigates the impact of future climate change on heavy metal (i.e., Cd and Zn) transport from soils to surface waters in a contaminated lowland catchment. The WALRUS hydrological model is employed in a semi-distributed manner to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes in the Dommel catchment in the Netherlands. The model is forced with climate change projections and the simulated fluxes are used as input to a metal transport model that simulates heavy metal concentrations and loads in quickflow and baseflow pathways. Metal transport is simulated under baseline climate (“2000–2010”) and future climate (“2090–2099”) conditions including scenarios for no climate change and climate change. The outcomes show an increase in Cd and Zn loads and the mean flux-weighted Cd and Zn concentrations in the discharged runoff, which is attributed to breakthrough of heavy metals from the soil system. Due to climate change, runoff enhances and leaching is accelerated, resulting in enhanced Cd and Zn loads. Mean flux-weighted concentrations in the discharged runoff increase during early summer and decrease during late summer and early autumn under the most extreme scenario of climate change. The results of this study provide improved understanding on the processes responsible for future changes in heavy metal contamination in lowland catchments

Determinants of land-use change patterns in the Netherlands

Land-use-change patterns are the result of the complex interaction between the human and the physical environment. Case studies of the determinants of land-use change can help to analyse which theory is appropriate in a particular region and stimulate the development of new theoretic understandings. In this paper an empirical method is presented to analyse the pattern of land-use change that allows a wide range of factors, from different disciplines, to contribute to the explanation of land-use change. The method is applied to the Netherlands, based on an extensive database of land-use change and its potential determinants. Historic as well as recent land-use changes are studied. Historic land-use change is related mainly to the variation in the biophysical environment. Levels of explanation are low because of the inability to address the temporal variation in location factors. For the recent changes in land use high levels of explanation are obtained. The most important changes during this period are expansions of residential, industrial/commercial, and recreational areas. The location of these changes can be explained by a combination of accessibility measures, spatial policies, and neighbourhood interactions. On the basis of these results it is possible to define priority topics for in-depth analysis of land-use-change processes and suggest factors, relations, and processes that need to be included in dynamic land-use-change models that support land-use-planning policies.

The Impact of Climate Change on Metal Transport in a Lowland Catchment

This study investigates the impact of future climate change on heavy metal (i.e., Cd and Zn) transport from soils to surface waters in a contaminated lowland catchment. The WALRUS hydrological model is employed in a semi-distributed manner to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes in the Dommel catchment in the Netherlands. The model is forced with climate change projections and the simulated fluxes are used as input to a metal transport model that simulates heavy metal concentrations and loads in quickflow and baseflow pathways. Metal transport is simulated under baseline climate (“2000–2010”) and future climate (“2090–2099”) conditions including scenarios for no climate change and climate change. The outcomes show an increase in Cd and Zn loads and the mean flux-weighted Cd and Zn concentrations in the discharged runoff, which is attributed to breakthrough of heavy metals from the soil system. Due to climate change, runoff enhances and leaching is accelerated, resulting in enhanced Cd and Zn loads. Mean flux-weighted concentrations in the discharged runoff increase during early summer and decrease during late summer and early autumn under the most extreme scenario of climate change. The results of this study provide improved understanding on the processes responsible for future changes in heavy metal contamination in lowland catchments

The Impact of Climate Change on Metal Transport in a Lowland Catchment

This study investigates the impact of future climate change on heavy metal (i.e., Cd and Zn) transport from soils to surface waters in a contaminated lowland catchment. The WALRUS hydrological model is employed in a semi-distributed manner to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes in the Dommel catchment in the Netherlands. The model is forced with climate change projections and the simulated fluxes are used as input to a metal transport model that simulates heavy metal concentrations and loads in quickflow and baseflow pathways. Metal transport is simulated under baseline climate (“2000–2010”) and future climate (“2090–2099”) conditions including scenarios for no climate change and climate change. The outcomes show an increase in Cd and Zn loads and the mean flux-weighted Cd and Zn concentrations in the discharged runoff, which is attributed to breakthrough of heavy metals from the soil system. Due to climate change, runoff enhances and leaching is accelerated, resulting in enhanced Cd and Zn loads. Mean flux-weighted concentrations in the discharged runoff increase during early summer and decrease during late summer and early autumn under the most extreme scenario of climate change. The results of this study provide improved understanding on the processes responsible for future changes in heavy metal contamination in lowland catchments

Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change

C52, C53, Q15, Q24, R14, R52,