Accounting for the effects of employment, equity, and risk aversion in cost-benefit analysis: An application to an adaptation project

This paper sets out to explore to what extent integrating employment effects, equity, and risk aversion within cost-benefit analysis (CBA) affect the economic appraisal of a climate change adaptation project designed to protect against flood risk in a region of Bilbao (Basque Country, Spain). Four CBAs are conducted: (i) a standard CBA; (ii) a standard CBA considering equity; (iii) a standard CBA considering equity and employment; and (iv) a standard CBA considering equity, employment and risk aversion. All CBAs are conducted using a time frame of 2014- 2080 and considering a 100-year return period under a middle of the road emission scenario (RCP4.5). A sensitivity analysis is also undertaken. Results suggest that the economic efficiency of the adaptation investment is contingent on what types of considerations are included within CBA. Integrating elements of employment, equity and risk aversion can strengthen or weaken the case for action (leading to higher or lower net-present values) and (depending on the discount rate chosen) may even be the deciding factor for determining whether a particular action should be carried out or not (whether the net-present value is positive or negative). © The Author(s), 2021.Acknowledgments: The funding for this work was provided by the European Commission 7th Framework Programme ECONADAPT project on the “Economics of climate change adaptation in Europe” under the grant agreement No. 603906. This research is also supported by the Basque Government through the BERC 2018-2021 program and by Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness MINECO through BC3 María de Maeztu excellence accreditation MDM-2017-0714

Presentación

El cambio climático es uno de los mayores retos a los que se enfrentan nuestras sociedades. Muchos de los cambios previstos por la ciencia son ya evidentes y el Panel Intergubernamental sobre el Cambio Climático (IPCC, en sus siglas en inglés) en su informe especial Calentamiento global de 1,5º C advertía de la vulnerabilidad de determinados sistemas naturales o humanos que podrían verse gravemente afectados incluso por pequeños aumentos de la temperatura media del planeta. Para evitar riesgos intolerables resulta ineludible y urgente implementar, en las próximas décadas, políticas de mitigación y adaptación (IPCC, 2018a

COP23: Technical profile with relevant political support

La Conferencia de las Partes de la Con-vención Marco de Naciones Unidas para el Cambio Climático (UNFCCC, por sus siglas en inglés), conocida como la COP 23, se celebró en Bonn (Alemania) entre los días 7 y 18 de noviembre de 2017. Aunque la República de Fiji, en Melanesia, ocupa-ba la Presidencia de la COP23 y era, por tanto, la anfitriona de la misma, ésta se celebró en la sede central de UNFCCC en Bonn, con el apoyo del gobierno alemán como coanfitrión, debido a la falta de in-fraestructuras necesarias para alojar a las decenas de miles de delegados y observa-dores esperados en la Conferencia de Fiji. Los seis órganos de UNFCCC se reunieron, siguiendo sus agendas correspondientes, a lo largo de dos semanas. Las Partes envia-ron a 11.300 delegados a Bonn, un 25% menos que en la Cumbre de París. Más de 6.000 representantes de agencias es-pecializadas, organizaciones interguber-namentales, ONGs y órganos estadouni-denses también estuvieron presentes, así como 1.600 periodistas acreditados. En total, más de 19.000 delegados se despla-zaron a Bonn, una cifra muy lejana a la de París en 2015

Avoidable costs of physical treatments for chronic back, neck and shoulder pain within the Spanish National Health Service: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Back, neck and shoulder pain are the most common causes of occupational disability. They reduce health-related quality of life and have a significant economic impact. Many different forms of physical treatment are routinely used. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost of physical treatments which, despite the absence of evidence supporting their effectiveness, were used between 2004 and 2007 for chronic and non-specific neck pain (NP), back pain (BP) and shoulder pain (SP), within the Spanish National Health Service in the Canary Islands (SNHSCI).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Chronic patients referred from the SNHSCI to private physical therapy centres for NP, BP or SP, between 2004 and 2007, were identified. The cost of providing physical therapies to these patients was estimated. Systematic reviews (SRs) and clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) for NP, BP and SP available in the same period were searched for and rated according to the Oxman and AGREE criteria, respectively. Those rated positively for ≥70% of the criteria, were used to categorise physical therapies as Effective; Ineffective; Inconclusive; and Insufficiently Assessed. The main outcome was the cost of physical therapies included in each of these categories.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>8,308 chronic cases of NP, 4,693 of BP and 5,035 of SP, were included in this study. Among prescribed treatments, 39.88% were considered Effective (physical exercise and manual therapy with mobilization); 23.06% Ineffective; 13.38% Inconclusive, and 23.66% Insufficiently Assessed. The total cost of treatments was € 5,107,720. Effective therapies accounted for € 2,069,932.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Sixty percent of the resources allocated by the SNHSCI to fund physical treatment for NP, BP and SP in private practices are spent on forms of treatment proven to be ineffective, or for which there is no evidence of effectiveness.</p

COP23: PERFIL TÉCNICO CON EL APOYO POLÍTICO

La Conferencia de las Partes de la Con-vención Marco de Naciones Unidas para el Cambio Climático (UNFCCC, por sus siglas en inglés), conocida como la COP 23, se celebró en Bonn (Alemania) entre los días 7 y 18 de noviembre de 2017. Aunque la República de Fiji, en Melanesia, ocupa-ba la Presidencia de la COP23 y era, por tanto, la anfitriona de la misma, ésta se celebró en la sede central de UNFCCC en Bonn, con el apoyo del gobierno alemán como coanfitrión, debido a la falta de in-fraestructuras necesarias para alojar a las decenas de miles de delegados y observa-dores esperados en la Conferencia de Fiji. Los seis órganos de UNFCCC se reunieron, siguiendo sus agendas correspondientes, a lo largo de dos semanas. Las Partes envia-ron a 11.300 delegados a Bonn, un 25% menos que en la Cumbre de París. Más de 6.000 representantes de agencias es-pecializadas, organizaciones interguber-namentales, ONGs y órganos estadouni-denses también estuvieron presentes, así como 1.600 periodistas acreditados. En total, más de 19.000 delegados se despla-zaron a Bonn, una cifra muy lejana a la de París en 2015

Comparing urban coastal flood risk in 136 cities under two alternative sea-level projections: RCP 8.5 and an expert opinion-based high-end scenario

The high degree of uncertainty associated with the extent of future sea-level rise stems primarily from the potential mass loss of the Greenland and Antarctica ice-sheets. We explore the impact of this uncertainty on economic damage due to sea-level rise for 136 major coastal cities. We compare the probability distribution for damage under the assumption of no adaptation for two relative sea-level projections: the RCP 8.5 scenario from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and a High-end scenario that incorporates expert opinion on additional ice-sheet melting. We use the 50th and 95th percentiles to estimate expected damage and one risk measure, the Expected Shortfall ES (95%), which represents the impact of low-probability, high-damage coastal flood risk (above the 95th percentile). Aggregate expected damage by 2050 under RCP 8.5 is US$1,600 billion, while the aggregate risk measure ES(95$3,082 billion. Under the High-end scenario, ES(95%) figures in Guangzhou and New Orleans by 2050 are twice as high as the expected damage. The city of Guangzhou leads the ranking under both scenarios, followed by Mumbai and New Orleans. Our results suggest that it is critical to incorporate the possibility of High-end scenarios into coastal adaptation planning for future sea-level rise, especially for risk-averse decision-making