What are the best indicators of systemic risk?

After the financial crisis of 2007-2008, the need of reliable indicators of financial stability became increasingly important. In a first stage, we review the current literature about ten systemic risk indicators (measures/early warnings). The second part is dedicated to an empirical study where we evaluate the performance of some indicators in order to know which is the best measure/early warning of systemic risk. We test only five indicators from the US and Europe that we consider as simple and easily available to everyone: market volatility (VIXX & VSTOXX), interbank rates (Ted spread), Yield curve slope, Return of the bank equity indices and CDS indices (CDX IG, Itraxx & Itraxx Financials). These monthly data are the independent variables for the US and Europe by means of which we try to see whether we can predict systemic risk. We test the performance of each of these indicators from 0 to 6 lags (in months). When the indicators are tested with 0 lags, we are testing the performance of the indicator as measure of systemic risk. When the indicators are tested from 1 to 6 lags, we are testing the performance of the indicator as early warning of systemic risk. We also choose two systemic stress indicators: the Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS) for Europe and the Cleveland Financial Stress Index (CFSI) for the US. They act as dependent variables which will tell us whether there is or there is no systemic risk. We use three methods to test the performance of the indicators. The first one is the Logit regression and we take the highest McFadden R² and Count R² as criteria of selection of the best performing indicator of systemic risk. The second one is the KLR signal approach and we take the smallest noise-to-signal ratio as criterion of selection of the best performing indicator of systemic risk. The third and last one is the Granger causality test and we take the Akaike Information Criterion as criterion of selection. After having computed the results for all these three methods, the purpose is to see if their results are consistent.Master [120] en Ingénieur de gestion, Université catholique de Louvain, 201

Isolation of Basidiobolus ranarum from ectotherms in Antwerp zoo with special reference to characterization of the isolated strains36685

Ten Basidiobolus ranarum (= Basidiobolus haptosporus) strains, isolated from faeces of 102 different lower vertebrates (ectotherms) exhibited in Antwerp Zoo, or from their environment were studied for their temperature requirements, haemolysis and other enzyme activities in vitro. All isolates grew well at 25 and 37 degrees C. Three strains that produced undulated zygospore walls were haemolytic and positive for hyaluronidase. All the isolates produced urease, N-acetyl-beta-glucosaminidase, trypsin, lipase, lecithinase, gelatinase, collagenase and elastase, but failed to produce amylase, keratinase and beta-glucosidase. Three isolates failed to produce phosphatase. Only one strain failed to produce DNase. Aesculin was not hydrolysed. Chitinase activity was inconclusive. The results of this study illustrate the importance of exotic animals kept in temperate regions as carriers of potentially pathogenic organisms. In addition to the morphological characteristics, the identification can be based on enzymatic profiles. Enzymatic activity detection may help to explain the pathogenic mechanism of the fungus</p

Isolation of Cryptococcus neoformans var. neoformans in the aviaries of the Antwerp Zoological Gardens3636617

[No abstract available]</p