Bridging troubled water : electoral availability in European party systems in the aftermath of the Great Recession (2009-2014) : an application of Bayesian ideal point estimation

How is electoral competition structured in Europe? This fundamental problem lies at the core of democracy, as popular sovereignty depends on the existence of a real policy choice, and requires the most preferred alternative being selected and implemented (Dahl 1956). However, there is no consensus yet regarding the actual occurrence of this mechanism of responsive electoral competition (Schumpeter 1942). I develop a new empirical design to test whether a structure of electoral competition in Europe actually exists, based on the idea that greater party system polarization should be associated with a smaller propensity for voters to switch between electoral blocks. To do so, I identify two potential loci of electoral competition in Europe: the left-right dimension (Downs 1957; Bartolini and Mair 1990), and the more recently introduced integration-demarcation cleavage (Kriesi 1998; Kriesi et al. 2006). Data from the European Election Survey (2009, 2014) allow the implementation of the novel design in order to study electoral competition in 27 EU member states. For this thesis to empirically address the question of electoral competition in Europe a preliminary, methodological development has to be made. Indices of political polarization are generally produced using survey respondents’ average perceptions of party positions. I show that this approach leads to systematic measurement error: the problem, known as Differential Item Functioning (DIF), depends on the fact that voter perceptions are subjective and cannot be directly compared, neither within nor between countries. To separate the actual polarization from perceptual bias, I develop a two-stage Bayesian Aldrich-McKelvey (2S-BAM) scaling procedure and apply Dalton’s index on DIF-corrected measures of party positions (ideal points) on both dimensions. Results show that when standard DIF-inflated polarization indices are used, left-right ideology seems to be still structuring European electoral competition. However, once the indices are optimized, using party ideal points, the integration-demarcation cleavage gains the upper hand over the left-right dimension in structuring electoral competition in contemporary Europe. Thus, this thesis makes both a methodological and theoretical, as well as an empirical contribution to the literature in this field

Prediction of turbulence control for arbitrary periodic spanwise wall movement

In order to generalize the well-known spanwise-oscillating-wall technique for drag reduction, non-sinusoidal oscillations of a solid wall are considered as a means to alter the skin-friction drag in a turbulent channel flow. A series of Direct Numerical Simulations is conducted to evaluate the control performance of nine different temporal waveforms, in addition to the usual sinusoid, systematically changing the wave amplitude and the period for each waveform. The turbulent average spanwise motion is found to coincide with the laminar Stokes solution that is constructed, for the generic waveform, through harmonic superposition. This allows us to define and compute, for each waveform, a new penetration depth of the Stokes layer which correlates with the amount of turbulent drag reduction, and eventually to predict both turbulent drag reduction and net energy saving rate for arbitrary waveforms. Among the waveforms considered, the maximum net energy saving rate is obtained by the sinusoidal wave at its optimal amplitude and period. However, the sinusoid is not the best waveform at every point in the parameter space. Our predictive tool offers simple guidelines to design waveforms that outperform the sinusoid for given (suboptimal) amplitude and period of oscillation. This is potentially interesting in view of applications, where physical limitations often preclude the actuator to reach its optimal operating conditions

Positive with Strangers, Negative with Friends: How Interpersonal Closeness Affects Word-of-Mouth Valence through Self-Construal

Three experiments show that the closer consumers feel to a message recipient, the greater the likelihood that they will share negative relative to positive word-of-mouth. We attribute this effect to high vs. low interpersonal closeness activating interdependent vs. independent self-construal and subsequently affecting information sharing

Issue Yield and Party Strategy in Multiparty Competition

The issue yield model introduced a theory of the herestethic use of policy issues as strategic resources in multidimensional party competition. We extend the model by systematically addressing the specificities of issue yield dynamics in multiparty systems, with special regard to parties\u2019 issue yield rankings (relative position) and issue yield heterogeneity (differentiation) on each issue. Second, we introduce a novel research design for original data collection that allows for a more systematic testing of the model, by featuring (a) a large number of policy issues, (b) the use of Twitter content for coding parties\u2019 issue emphasis, and (c) an appropriate time sequence for measuring issue yield configurations and issue emphasis. We finally present findings from a pilot implementation of such design, performed on the occasion of the 2014 European Parliament election in Italy. Findings confirm the soundness of the design and provide support for the newly introduced hypotheses about multiparty competition

New survey evidence: Renzi’s support is damaging the chances of a Yes vote in Italy’s referendum

When the Italian constitutional referendum was called, Italy’s Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, linked the result to the fate of his government, suggesting that he would resign in the case of a No vote. Based on new survey evidence, Céline Colombo, Andrea De Angelis and Davide Morisi write that this strategy appears to have been counterproductive. They illustrate that voter support for the reform declines when it is explicitly linked to the government, but that if the Yes campaign focuses solely on the content of the reform, they may find consensus among a majority of voters on some of the key elements of the proposal

Do Others Influence What We Say? The Impact of Interpersonal Closeness on Word-of-Mouth Valence

Three experiments show that the closer consumers feel to a message recipient, the greater the likelihood that they will share negative relative to positive word-of-mouth. We attribute this effect to high vs. low interpersonal closeness activating low vs. high construal level and subsequently affecting information sharing

Smoke, alcohol and drug addiction and male fertility

In recent decades, the decline in human fertility has become increasingly more worrying: while therapeutic interventions might help, they are vexing for the couple and often burdened with high failure rates and costs. Prevention is the most successful approach to fertility disorders in males and females alike. We performed a literature review on three of the most common unhealthy habits - tobacco, alcohol and drug addiction - and their reported effects on male fertility. Tobacco smoking is remarkably common in most first-world countries; despite a progressive decline in the US, recent reports suggest a prevalence of more than 30% in subjects of reproductive age - a disturbing perspective, given the well-known ill-effects on reproductive and sexual function as well as general health. Alcohol consumption is often considered socially acceptable, but its negative effects on gonadal function have been consistently reported in the last 30 years. Several studies have reported a variety of negative effects on male fertility following drug abuse - a worrying phenomenon, as illicit drug consumption is on the rise, most notably in younger subjects. While evidence in these regards is still far from solid, mostly as a result of several confounding factors, it is safe to assume that cessation of tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption and recreational drug addiction might represent the best course of action for any couple trying to achieve pregnancy

Zero-sum stopper vs. singular-controller games with constrained control directions

We consider a class of zero-sum stopper vs.\ singular-controller games in which the controller can only act on a subset $d_0<d$ of the $d$ coordinates of a controlled diffusion. Due to the constraint on the control directions these games fall outside the framework of recently studied variational methods. In this paper we develop an approximation procedure, based on $L^1$-stability estimates for the controlled diffusion process and almost sure convergence of suitable stopping times. That allows us to prove existence of the game's value and to obtain an optimal strategy for the stopper, under continuity and growth conditions on the payoff functions. This class of games is a natural extension of (single-agent) singular control problems, studied in the literature, with similar constraints on the admissible controls.Comment: 3