Maker-Breaker Percolation Games I: Crossing Grids

Motivated by problems in percolation theory, we study the following 2-player positional game. Let $\Lambda_{m \times n}$ be a rectangular grid-graph with $m$ vertices in each row and $n$ vertices in each column. Two players, Maker and Breaker, play in alternating turns. On each of her turns, Maker claims $p$ (as-yet unclaimed) edges of the board $\Lambda_{m \times n}$, while on each of his turns Breaker claims $q$ (as-yet unclaimed) edges of the board and destroys them. Maker wins the game if she manages to claim all the edges of a crossing path joining the left-hand side of the board to its right-hand side, otherwise Breaker wins. We call this game the $(p,q)$-crossing game on $\Lambda_{m \times n}$. Given $m,n\in \mathbb{N}$, for which pairs $(p,q)$ does Maker have a winning strategy for the $(p,q)$-crossing game on $\Lambda_{m \times n}$? The $(1,1)$-case corresponds exactly to the popular game of Bridg-it, which is well understood due to it being a special case of the older Shannon switching game. In this paper, we study the general $(p,q)$-case. Our main result is to establish the following transition: $\bullet$ If $p\geqslant 2q$, then Maker wins the game on arbitrarily long versions of the narrowest board possible, i.e. Maker has a winning strategy for the $(2q, q)$-crossing game on $\Lambda_{m \times(q+1)}$ for any $m\in \mathbb{N}$; $\bullet$ if $p\leqslant 2q-1$, then for every width $n$ of the board, Breaker has a winning strategy for the $(p,q)$-crossing game on $\Lambda_{m \times n}$ for all sufficiently large board-lengths $m$. Our winning strategies in both cases adapt more generally to other grids and crossing games. In addition we pose many new questions and problems.Comment: 29 pages, 7 figure

Mean winds, temperatures and the 16- and 5-day planetary waves in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over Bear Lake Observatory (42° N, 111° W)

Atmospheric temperatures and winds in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere have been measured simultaneously using the Aura satellite and a meteor radar at Bear Lake Observatory (42° N, 111° W), respectively. The data presented in this study is from the interval March 2008 to July 2011. <br><br> The mean winds observed in the summer-time over Bear Lake Observatory show the meridional winds to be equatorward at meteor heights during April−August and to reach monthly-mean velocities of −12 m s<sup>−1</sup>. The mean winds are closely related to temperatures in this region of the atmosphere and in the summer the coldest mesospheric temperatures occur about the same time as the strongest equatorward meridional winds. The zonal winds are eastward through most of the year and in the summer strong eastward zonal wind shears of up to ~4.5 m s<sup>−1</sup> km<sup>−1</sup> are present. However, westward winds are observed at the upper heights in winter and sometimes during the equinoxes. Considerable inter-annual variability is observed in the mean winds and temperatures. <br><br> Comparisons of the observed winds with URAP and HWM-07 reveal some large differences. Our radar zonal wind observations are generally more eastward than predicted by the URAP model zonal winds. Considering the radar meridional winds, in comparison to HWM-07 our observations reveal equatorward flow at all meteor heights in the summer whereas HWM-07 suggests that only weakly equatorward, or even poleward flows occur at the lower heights. However, the zonal winds observed by the radar and modelled by HWM-07 are generally similar in structure and strength. <br><br> Signatures of the 16- and 5-day planetary waves are clearly evident in both the radar-wind data and Aura-temperature data. Short-lived wave events can reach large amplitudes of up to ~15 m s<sup>−1</sup> and 8 K and 20 m s<sup>−1</sup> and 10 K for the 16- and 5-day waves, respectively. A clear seasonal and short-term variability are observed in the 16- and 5-day planetary wave amplitudes. The 16-day wave reaches largest amplitude in winter and is also present in summer, but with smaller amplitudes. The 5-day wave reaches largest amplitude in winter and in late summer. An inter-annual variability in the amplitude of the planetary waves is evident in the four years of observations. Some 41 episodes of large-amplitude wave occurrence are identified. Temperature and wind amplitudes for these episodes, A<sub><i>T</i></sub> and A<sub><i>W</i></sub>, that passed the Student T-test were found to be related by, A<sub><i>T</i></sub> = 0.34 A<sub><i>W</i></sub> and A<sub><i>T</i></sub> = 0.62 A<sub><i>W</i></sub> for the 16- and 5-day wave, respectively

Beyond just sea-level rise: considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change

Due to their position at the land-sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea-level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate change-related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea-level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands

An inventory of supranational antimicrobial resistance surveillance networks involving low- and middle-income countries since 2000.

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) shoulder the bulk of the global burden of infectious diseases and drug resistance. We searched for supranational networks performing antimicrobial resistance (AMR) surveillance in LMICs and assessed their organization, methodology, impacts and challenges. Since 2000, 72 supranational networks for AMR surveillance in bacteria, fungi, HIV, TB and malaria have been created that have involved LMICs, of which 34 are ongoing. The median (range) duration of the networks was 6 years (1-70) and the number of LMICs included was 8 (1-67). Networks were categorized as WHO/governmental (n = 26), academic (n = 24) or pharma initiated (n = 22). Funding sources varied, with 30 networks receiving public or WHO funding, 25 corporate, 13 trust or foundation, and 4 funded from more than one source. The leading global programmes for drug resistance surveillance in TB, malaria and HIV gather data in LMICs through periodic active surveillance efforts or combined active and passive approaches. The biggest challenges faced by these networks has been achieving high coverage across LMICs and complying with the recommended frequency of reporting. Obtaining high quality, representative surveillance data in LMICs is challenging. Antibiotic resistance surveillance requires a level of laboratory infrastructure and training that is not widely available in LMICs. The nascent Global Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System (GLASS) aims to build up passive surveillance in all member states. Past experience suggests complementary active approaches may be needed in many LMICs if representative, clinically relevant, meaningful data are to be obtained. Maintaining an up-to-date registry of networks would promote a more coordinated approach to surveillance

Bactericidal activities and post-antibiotic effects of ofloxacin and ceftriaxone against drug-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi.

BACKGROUND: The clinical response to ceftriaxone in patients with typhoid fever is significantly slower than with ofloxacin, despite infection with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi) isolates with similar susceptibilities (MIC 0.03-0.12 mg/L). The response to ofloxacin is slower if the isolate has intermediate susceptibility (MIC 0.25-1.0 mg/L). OBJECTIVES: To determine the bactericidal activity and post-antibiotic effect (PAE) of ceftriaxone and ofloxacin against S. Typhi. METHODS: The mean time to reach a 99.9% reduction in log10 count (bactericidal activity) and PAE of ceftriaxone and ofloxacin were determined for 18 clinical isolates of S. Typhi in time-kill experiments (MIC range for ofloxacin 0.06-1.0 mg/L and for ceftriaxone 0.03-0.12 mg/L). RESULTS: The mean (SD) bactericidal activity of ofloxacin was 33.1 (15.2) min and 384.4 (60) min for ceftriaxone. After a 30 min exposure to ofloxacin, the mean (SD) duration of PAE was 154.7 (52.6) min. There was no detectable PAE after 1 h of exposure to ceftriaxone. For ofloxacin, bactericidal activity and PAE did not significantly differ between isolates with full or intermediate susceptibility provided ofloxacin concentrations were maintained at 4×MIC. CONCLUSIONS: Infections with S. Typhi with intermediate ofloxacin susceptibility may respond to doses that maintain ofloxacin concentrations at 4×MIC at the site of infection. The slow bactericidal activity of ceftriaxone and absent PAE may explain the slow clinical response in typhoid

Narrative-based computational modelling of the Gp130/JAK/STAT signalling pathway.

BACKGROUND: Appropriately formulated quantitative computational models can support researchers in understanding the dynamic behaviour of biological pathways and support hypothesis formulation and selection by "in silico" experimentation. An obstacle to widespread adoption of this approach is the requirement to formulate a biological pathway as machine executable computer code. We have recently proposed a novel, biologically intuitive, narrative-style modelling language for biologists to formulate the pathway which is then automatically translated into an executable format and is, thus, usable for analysis via existing simulation techniques. RESULTS: Here we use a high-level narrative language in designing a computational model of the gp130/JAK/STAT signalling pathway and show that the model reproduces the dynamic behaviour of the pathway derived by biological observation. We then "experiment" on the model by simulation and sensitivity analysis to define those parameters which dominate the dynamic behaviour of the pathway. The model predicts that nuclear compartmentalisation and phosphorylation status of STAT are key determinants of the pathway and that alternative mechanisms of signal attenuation exert their influence on different timescales. CONCLUSION: The described narrative model of the gp130/JAK/STAT pathway represents an interesting case study showing how, by using this approach, researchers can model biological systems without explicitly dealing with formal notations and mathematical expressions (typically used for biochemical modelling), nevertheless being able to obtain simulation and analysis results. We present the model and the sensitivity analysis results we have obtained, that allow us to identify the parameters which are most sensitive to perturbations. The results, which are shown to be in agreement with existing mathematical models of the gp130/JAK/STAT pathway, serve us as a form of validation of the model and of the approach itself