Efficient Design and Inference for Multi-stage Randomized Trials of Individualized Treatment Policies

Increased clinical interest in individualized ‘adaptive’ treatment policies has shifted the methodological focus for their development from the analysis of naturalistically observed strategies to experimental evaluation of a pre-selected set of strategies via multi-stage designs. Because multi-stage studies often avoid the ‘curse of dimensionality’ inherent in uncontrolled studies, and hence the need to parametrically smooth trial data, it is not surprising in this context to find direct connections among different methodological approaches. We show by asymptotic and algebraic proof that the maximum likelihood (ML) and optimal semi-parametric estimators of the mean of a treatment policy and its standard error are equal under certain experimental conditions. The two methodologies offer conceptually different formulations, which we exploit to develop a unified and efficient approach to design and inference for multi-stage trials of policies that adapt treatment according to discrete responses. We derive a sample size formula expressed in terms of a parametric (regression-based) version of the optimal semi-parametric population variance. Non-parametric (sample-based) ML estimation performed well in simulation studies, in terms of achieved power, even though sample sizes relied on parametric re-expression. For a variety of simulated scenarios, ML outperformed the semi-parametric approach, which used a priori rather than estimated randomization probabilities, because the test statistic was sensitive to even small differences arising in finite samples

Association of Renal Manifestations with Serum Uric Acid in Korean Adults with Normal Uric Acid Levels

Several studies have reported that hyperuricemia is associated with the development of hypertension and cardiovascular disease. Increasing evidences also suggest that hyperuricemia may have a pathogenic role in the progression of renal disease. Paradoxically, uric acid is also widely accepted to have antioxidant activity in experimental studies. We aimed to investigate the association between glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and uric acid in healthy individuals with a normal serum level of uric acid. We examined renal function determined by GFR and uric acid in 3,376 subjects (1,896 men; 1,480 women; aged 20-80 yr) who underwent medical examinations at Gangnam Severance Hospital from November 2006 to June 2007. Determinants for renal function and uric acid levels were also investigated. In both men and women, GFR was negatively correlated with systolic and diastolic blood pressures, fasting plasma glucose, total cholesterol, uric acid, log transformed C reactive protein, and log transformed triglycerides. In multivariate regression analysis, total uric acid was found to be an independent factor associated with estimated GFR in both men and women. This result suggests that uric acid appears to contribute to renal impairment in subjects with normal serum level of uric acid

The impact of intolerance of uncertainty and cognitive behavioural instructions on safety learning

Background Difficulty updating threat associations to safe associations has been observed in individuals who score high in self-reported Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU). Here we sought to determine whether an instruction based on fundamental principles of Cognitive Behavioural Therapy could promote safety learning in individuals with higher levels of IU, whilst controlling for self-reported trait anxiety (STICSA). Methods We measured skin conductance response, pupil dilation and expectancy ratings during an associative threat learning task in which participants either received a cognitive behavioural instruction or no instruction prior to threat extinction (n = 92). Results Analyses revealed that both self-reported IU and STICSA similarly predicted differences in skin conductance response. Only individuals with lower IU/STICSA in the cognitive behavioural instruction condition displayed successful safety learning via skin conductance response. Conclusions These initial results provide some insight into how simple cognitive behavioural instructions combined with exposure are applied differently in individuals with varying levels of self-reported anxiety. The results further our understanding of the role of basic cognitive behavioural principles and self-reported anxiety in safety learning