The population dynamics of Plasmodium within the mosquito

Malaria remains one of the world’s most devastating vector-borne parasitic diseases and existing control tools may not be enough to meet the challenge of eliminating malaria in areas of high transmission. Understanding the population dynamics of Plasmodium within the mosquito vector is essential for developing, optimising, and evaluating novel control measures aimed at reducing transmission by targeting this important interface. Malaria research and mathematical models of transmission classically assume that the processes involved in the progression and development of the Plasmodium parasite within Anopheles mosquitoes are independent of parasite density. The research presented in this thesis challenges this assumption, investigating the impact of parasite density on population processes and regulation. A multidisciplinary approach has been taken, including statistical analyses, practical experimentation, and mathematical modelling. The results show that the progression of the rodent malaria Plasmodium berghei through Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes depends nonlinearly on parasite density, with the presence of both negative and positive density-dependent processes in operation. Analyses of other Plasmodium– Anopheles species combinations also indicate that the traditional assumption of density independence may be an oversimplification. Experimental investigation of mosquito mortality illustrates that the survival of a mosquito depends both on mosquito age and parasite density, again in contrast to the assumptions of malaria transmission modelling. A framework for a mathematical model tracking Plasmodium density within the mosquito has been developed as part of this thesis. Further investigation of sporogonic processes will allow this model to be further refined and extended for use in the future design and evaluation of interventions which target the mosquito or the parasite whilst within the vector

Progression of Plasmodium berghei through Anopheles stephensi Is Density-Dependent

It is well documented that the density of Plasmodium in its vertebrate host modulates the physiological response induced; this in turn regulates parasite survival and transmission. It is less clear that parasite density in the mosquito regulates survival and transmission of this important pathogen. Numerous studies have described conversion rates of Plasmodium from one life stage to the next within the mosquito, yet few have considered that these rates might vary with parasite density. Here we establish infections with defined numbers of the rodent malaria parasite Plasmodium berghei to examine how parasite density at each stage of development (gametocytes; ookinetes; oocysts and sporozoites) influences development to the ensuing stage in Anopheles stephensi, and thus the delivery of infectious sporozoites to the vertebrate host. We show that every developmental transition exhibits strong density dependence, with numbers of the ensuing stages saturating at high density. We further show that when fed ookinetes at very low densities, oocyst development is facilitated by increasing ookinete number (i.e., the efficiency of ookinete–oocyst transformation follows a sigmoid relationship). We discuss how observations on this model system generate important hypotheses for the understanding of malaria biology, and how these might guide the rational analysis of interventions against the transmission of the malaria parasites of humans by their diverse vector species

Population biology of malaria within the mosquito: density-dependent processes and potential implications for transmission-blocking interventions

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The combined effects of multiple density-dependent, regulatory processes may have an important impact on the growth and stability of a population. In a malaria model system, it has been shown that the progression of <it>Plasmodium berghei </it>through <it>Anopheles stephensi </it>and the survival of the mosquito both depend non-linearly on parasite density. These processes regulating the development of the malaria parasite within the mosquito may influence the success of transmission-blocking interventions (TBIs) currently under development.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An individual-based stochastic mathematical model is used to investigate the combined impact of these multiple regulatory processes and examine how TBIs, which target different parasite life-stages within the mosquito, may influence overall parasite transmission.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The best parasite molecular targets will vary between different epidemiological settings. Interventions that reduce ookinete density beneath a threshold level are likely to have auxiliary benefits, as transmission would be further reduced by density-dependent processes that restrict sporogonic development at low parasite densities. TBIs which reduce parasite density but fail to clear the parasite could cause a modest increase in transmission by increasing the number of infectious bites made by a mosquito during its lifetime whilst failing to sufficiently reduce its infectivity. Interventions with a higher variance in efficacy will therefore tend to cause a greater reduction in overall transmission than a TBI with a more uniform effectiveness. Care should be taken when interpreting these results as parasite intensity values in natural parasite-vector combinations of human malaria are likely to be significantly lower than those in this model system.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A greater understanding of the development of the malaria parasite within the mosquito is required to fully evaluate the impact of TBIs. If parasite-induced vector mortality influenced the population dynamics of <it>Plasmodium </it>species infecting humans in malaria endemic regions, it would be important to quantify the variability and duration of TBI efficacy to ensure that community benefits of control measures are not overestimated.</p

Trials

Background Optimising hearing and vision function may be important in improving a range of outcomes for people living with dementia (PwD) and their companions. The SENSE-Cog cross-national randomised controlled trial (RCT) is evaluating the effectiveness of a sensory intervention (SI) to improve quality of life for PwD with concurrent hearing and/or vision impairment, in five European countries. To ascertain how or why the intervention will, or will not, achieve its outcomes, we have designed a process evaluation to explore potential discrepancies between expected and observed outcomes. This will also help us to understand how context may influence the outcomes. Here we describe the protocol for this process evaluation, which is embedded within the RCT. Methods/design We will use a mixed methods approach with a theoretical framework derived from the UK Medical Research Council’s’ guidance on process evaluations. It will include the following: (1) evaluating how key aspects of the intervention will be delivered, which will be important to scale the intervention in real world populations; (2) characterising the contextual issues, which may shape the delivery and the impact of the intervention in different countries; and (3) investigating possible causal mechanisms through analyses of potential moderators and mediators. To avoid bias, we will analyse the process data before the analysis of the main effectiveness outcomes. Discussion This evaluation will provide insight into how the complex SENSE-Cog SI will be tailored, enacted and received across the different European contexts, all of which have unique health and social care economies. The findings will provide insight into the causal mechanisms effecting change, and will determine whether we should implement the intervention, if effective, on a wider scale for PwD and concurrent sensory impairment

Machine learning algorithms performed no better than regression models for prognostication in traumatic brain injury

Objective: We aimed to explore the added value of common machine learning (ML) algorithms for prediction of outcome for moderate and severe traumatic brain injury. Study Design and Setting: We performed logistic regression (LR), lasso regression, and ridge regression with key baseline predictors in the IMPACT-II database (15 studies, n = 11,022). ML algorithms included support vector machines, random forests, gradient boosting machines, and artificial neural networks and were trained using the same predictors. To assess generalizability of predictions, we performed internal, internal-external, and external validation on the recent CENTER-TBI study (patients with Glasgow Coma Scale <13, n = 1,554). Both calibration (calibration slope/intercept) and discrimination (area under the curve) was quantified. Results: In the IMPACT-II database, 3,332/11,022 (30%) died and 5,233(48%) had unfavorable outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale less than 4). In the CENTER-TBI study, 348/1,554(29%) died and 651(54%) had unfavorable outcome. Discrimination and calibration varied widely between the studies and less so between the studied algorithms. The mean area under the curve was 0.82 for mortality and 0.77 for unfavorable outcomes in the CENTER-TBI study. Conclusion: ML algorithms may not outperform traditional regression approaches in a low-dimensional setting for outcome prediction after moderate or severe traumatic brain injury. Similar to regression-based prediction models, ML algorithms should be rigorously validated to ensure applicability to new populations

Case Reports1. A Late Presentation of Loeys-Dietz Syndrome: Beware of TGFβ Receptor Mutations in Benign Joint Hypermobility

Background: Thoracic aortic aneurysms (TAA) and dissections are not uncommon causes of sudden death in young adults. Loeys-Dietz syndrome (LDS) is a rare, recently described, autosomal dominant, connective tissue disease characterized by aggressive arterial aneurysms, resulting from mutations in the transforming growth factor beta (TGFβ) receptor genes TGFBR1 and TGFBR2. Mean age at death is 26.1 years, most often due to aortic dissection. We report an unusually late presentation of LDS, diagnosed following elective surgery in a female with a long history of joint hypermobility. Methods: A 51-year-old Caucasian lady complained of chest pain and headache following a dural leak from spinal anaesthesia for an elective ankle arthroscopy. CT scan and echocardiography demonstrated a dilated aortic root and significant aortic regurgitation. MRA demonstrated aortic tortuosity, an infrarenal aortic aneurysm and aneurysms in the left renal and right internal mammary arteries. She underwent aortic root repair and aortic valve replacement. She had a background of long-standing joint pains secondary to hypermobility, easy bruising, unusual fracture susceptibility and mild bronchiectasis. She had one healthy child age 32, after which she suffered a uterine prolapse. Examination revealed mild Marfanoid features. Uvula, skin and ophthalmological examination was normal. Results: Fibrillin-1 testing for Marfan syndrome (MFS) was negative. Detection of a c.1270G > C (p.Gly424Arg) TGFBR2 mutation confirmed the diagnosis of LDS. Losartan was started for vascular protection. Conclusions: LDS is a severe inherited vasculopathy that usually presents in childhood. It is characterized by aortic root dilatation and ascending aneurysms. There is a higher risk of aortic dissection compared with MFS. Clinical features overlap with MFS and Ehlers Danlos syndrome Type IV, but differentiating dysmorphogenic features include ocular hypertelorism, bifid uvula and cleft palate. Echocardiography and MRA or CT scanning from head to pelvis is recommended to establish the extent of vascular involvement. Management involves early surgical intervention, including early valve-sparing aortic root replacement, genetic counselling and close monitoring in pregnancy. Despite being caused by loss of function mutations in either TGFβ receptor, paradoxical activation of TGFβ signalling is seen, suggesting that TGFβ antagonism may confer disease modifying effects similar to those observed in MFS. TGFβ antagonism can be achieved with angiotensin antagonists, such as Losartan, which is able to delay aortic aneurysm development in preclinical models and in patients with MFS. Our case emphasizes the importance of timely recognition of vasculopathy syndromes in patients with hypermobility and the need for early surgical intervention. It also highlights their heterogeneity and the potential for late presentation. Disclosures: The authors have declared no conflicts of interes

Frequency of fatigue and its changes in the first 6 months after traumatic brain injury: results from the CENTER-TBI study

Background: Fatigue is one of the most commonly reported subjective symptoms following traumatic brain injury (TBI). The aims were to assess frequency of fatigue over the first 6 months after TBI, and examine whether fatigue changes could be predicted by demographic characteristics, injury severity and comorbidities. Methods: Patients with acute TBI admitted to 65 trauma centers were enrolled in the study Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in TBI (CENTER-TBI). Subj