Performance Analysis of Fundamentally-Weighted Indices in the Croatian Capital Market

The work of Arnott et al. (2005) presented an interesting fact that the fundamentally- weighted indices generally outperform the market capitalisation-weighted counterparts in the US stock market. The research results prompted the introduction of fundamentally-weighted indices in the US market. Since research dealing with Croatian capital market also points out the inefficiency of the risk return trade-off of the cap-weighted (CROBEX) index this paper examines more closely the risk return characteristics of the potential fundamentally-weighted alternative and analyses the source of higher returns in the case of fundamentally-weighted indices. We use the original and propose a modified Fama French three factor model in order to try to capture specific sources of risk in the small and illiquid market. We find evidence in support of the view that better risk return trade-off of the fundamentally-weighted indices is driven by additional exposure to risk factors in comparison to CROBEX index

Analysis of forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for the Croatian economy

The paper provides, for the first time, the analysis of the quality of the GDP growth and inflation forecasts by multiple forecasters for the Croatian economy. Forecast data of 6 different institutions in the 2006–2015 period are analysed. Efficiency and biasedness test are conducted following the Davies and Lahiri econometric framework based on a three-dimensional panel dataset which includes multiple individual forecasters, target years and forecast horizons. In order to assess directional accuracy we follow the approach by Pesaran and Timmermann. Based on MAE values we find the forecasts to be accurate on a scale comparable to the European Commission’s forecast reported in 2016 for the EU and the euro area. GDP growth forecasts exhibit a strong bias related to a notable tendency to over-predict GDP growth. In the case of inflation forecasting the bias is still present for all forecasters, albeit less pronounced and not statistically significant for all of them. There is evidence of forecast inefficiency regarding both analysed variables. Overall, inflation forecasting presents less of a challenge due to specific monetary policy strategy and inaccurate national accounts data accompanied by extended revision process of the GDP data by the government’s statistics office

Comparison of a re-analyzed vaginal hysterectomy to a classical one

Objective. To evaluate advantages of a re-analyzed vaginal hysterectomy (the ten-step vaginal hysterectomy – TSVH) as compared to a traditional technique of vaginal hysterectomy. Patients and methods. A prospective randomized study involving 66 patients with pelvic organ prolapse; 46 operations were performed using the classical technique of vaginal hysterectomy (modifi ed Heaney method) and 20 using the TSVH. Results. TSVH results in shorter operating time, shorter hospital stay, and signifi cantly less need for analgesia compared to the Heaney method. There is no difference in blood loss, pain intensity and degree of patient satisfaction 7 days after surgery. Conclusion. The ten-step vaginal hysterectomy which is a structured method based on the analysis of several possible surgical steps seems to be simple to perform, teach and learn. Because of its didactic presentation, this method can successfully promote vaginal hysterectomy when teaching new generations of gynecological surgeons, and should be adopted for routine clinical use

Comparison of a re-analyzed vaginal hysterectomy to a classical one

Objective. To evaluate advantages of a re-analyzed vaginal hysterectomy (the ten-step vaginal hysterectomy – TSVH) as compared to a traditional technique of vaginal hysterectomy. Patients and methods. A prospective randomized study involving 66 patients with pelvic organ prolapse; 46 operations were performed using the classical technique of vaginal hysterectomy (modifi ed Heaney method) and 20 using the TSVH. Results. TSVH results in shorter operating time, shorter hospital stay, and signifi cantly less need for analgesia compared to the Heaney method. There is no difference in blood loss, pain intensity and degree of patient satisfaction 7 days after surgery. Conclusion. The ten-step vaginal hysterectomy which is a structured method based on the analysis of several possible surgical steps seems to be simple to perform, teach and learn. Because of its didactic presentation, this method can successfully promote vaginal hysterectomy when teaching new generations of gynecological surgeons, and should be adopted for routine clinical use

Međuovisnost prinosa i rizika dionica u uvjetima visoke i niske volatilnosti tržišta na Zagrebačkoj burzi

Rad ispituje temeljnu međuovisnost prinosa i rizika koristeći beta koeficijent i standardnu devijaciju kao mjere rizičnosti ulaganja u dionice na Zagrebačkoj burzi. Iako je beta koeficijent kao mjera sistematskog rizika često testiran u sklopu empirijskih testiranja moderne teorije portfolija i modela procjenjivanja kapitalne imovine, pri čemu je u istraživanjima u svijetu bilo prijepora, u ovom istraživanju ispituje se mogućnost da je slaba povezanost promatranih varijabli povezana s utjecajem volatilnosti tržišta. U svrhu ispunjavanja navedenog cilja u radu je korišten model promjene režima kako bi se detektirali režimi visoke i niske volatilnosti na tržištu te je međuovisnost prinosa i rizika promatrana zasebno u navedenim režimima. Za ispitivanje su korištene dionice iz sastava CROBEX10 indeksa. Nalazi istraživanja pokazuju da u analiziranom vremenskom periodu (2016. ̶ 2020.) nije pronađena statistički značajna međuovisnost beta koeficijenta i prinosa dionica bez obzira na promatrane režime na tržištu. Suprotno navedenom, nalazi istraživanja za standardnu devijaciju prinosa dionica statistički su značajni

Application of Luenberger Shortage Function on the Zagreb Stock Exchange: Analysis of Efficient Market Portfolios

In order to apply the CAPM in practice, the estimation of the market portfolio presents one of the biggest challenges. Even more so after the research in early 1990\u27s pointed out the mean-variance inefficiency of stock market capitalization-weighted indices. In the paper we perform an in-sample optimization for the CROBEX index constituents to test its efficiency ex post. Selected CROBEX index revisions from the period March 2005 – September 2017 are analysed. We find the index to be inefficient which confirms the results of earlier studies. However, since mean-variance optimization often yields extreme portfolio weights, thus reducing the effective number of stocks in the portfolio, the focus of this research is on testing if improvement in efficiency over the CROBEX index is possible, with respect to the portfolio deconcentration level. The Luenberger’s shortage function is added to the optimization algorithm in order to increase the number of efficient portfolios analysed

Normal reference ranges for laboratory tests in pregnancy

Trudnoća je stanje u kojem se javlja niz fizioloških promjena u organizmu, koje se očituju i u promijenjenim vrijednostima nekih laboratorijskih parametara. Vrijednosti laboratorijskih parametara u trudnoći zahtijevaju stoga interpretaciju u sasvim drukčijim okvirima referentnih intervala, koji moraju biti specifični za trudnoću, jer se vrijednosti parametara krvne slike, jetrenih funkcija, koagulacijskih faktora, CRP-a, SE-a i brojnih drugih laboratorijskih parametara značajno razlikuju u odnosu na negravidno stanje žene. Opstetričari, ali i liječnici ostalih specijalnosti koji skrbe o trudnicama, pritom trebaju razumjeti fiziološki mehanizam adaptacije i poznavati granične vrijednosti pojedinih laboratorijskih parametara, kako ne bi došlo do pogreške u njihovoj interpretaciji, što bi moglo rezultiratineopravdanim liječenjem zdravih trudnica, odnosno previdom razvoja patoloških stanja u trudnoći. Medicinsko-biokemijski laboratoriji zdravstvenih ustanova koje skrbe o trudnicama trebali bi uključiti u svoje popise referentnih vrijednosti i vrijednosti specifične za trudnoću, što bi pridonijelo kvaliteti praćenja trudnoće.Pregnancy is a state that induces a number of physiological changes in the organism, which result in changes in laboratory values. Consequently, laboratory values during pregnancy should be interpreted based on the very different set of pregnancy-specific reference ranges, considering that blood count, liver parameters, coagulation factors, C-reactive protein, sedimentation, and other factors differ significantly compared to their non-gravid values. Obstetricians and other physicians, who participate in pregnancy management, should understand the physiological mechanism of adaptation and be able to recognise the threshold laboratory values of each parameter in order to prevent not only misinterpretation and subsequent unjustified treatment of healthy pregnant women, but also failure to recognize pathological findings in pregnancy. Healthcare laboratories that provide care to pregnant women should include pregnancy-specific referent ranges to their standard laboratory values tables in order to improve the quality of pregnancy management

Primjena indeksa temeljenih na fundamentalnim pokazateljima na hrvatskom tržištu kapitala

U nastojanjima da se najpoznatiji jedno-faktorski model, model procjenjivanja kapitalne imovine (CAPM), primijeni u praksi često su se koristili dionički indeksi temeljeni na tržišnoj kapitalizaciji. Istraživanja su, međutim, pokazala da takvi indeksi najčešće ne predstavljaju efikasan portfolio svojih sastavnica pa su u posljednjih 10-ak godina razvijani pristupi koji bi investitorima trebali ponuditi efikasnije indekse. Istraživanja za hrvatsko tržište upućuju na otežanu primjenu takvih istraživanja zbog specifičnosti malog i nelikvidnog tržišta. U ovom radu kao alternativa tržišnoj kapitalizaciji testiraju se fundamentalni pokazatelji slijedeći istraživanje Arnott et al. (2005.). Ispituje se više fundamentalnih pokazatelja, a performanse indeksa uspoređuju se s CROBEX indeksom za revizije indeksa u razdoblju 2009.-2016. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju bolje performanse određenih testiranih indeksa u vidu većih odnosa rizika i nagrade, ali uz slabu robusnost. Također, veći odnosi rizika i nagrade proizlaze iz relativno većeg povećanja prinosa u odnosu na rizik što sugerira potrebu za provođenje daljnjih istraživanja