Modeling land-climate coupling in Europe: Impact of land surface representation on climate variability and extremes

Land-climate coupling has been shown to be important for European summer climate variability and extreme events. However, the sensitivity of these feedbacks to land surface model (LSM) choice has been little investigated up to now. In this study, we assess the impact of the LSM on the simulated climate variability in a regional climate model (RCM). The experiments were conducted with the COSMO-CLM2RCM. COSMO-CLM2can be run with two alternative LSMs, the 2nd-generation LSM TERRA_ML or the more sophisticated 3rd-generation LSM Community Land Model (CLM3.5). The analyzed simulations include control and sensitivity experiments with prescribed soil moisture (dry or wet). Using CLM3.5 instead of TERRA_ML improves the simulated temperature variability by alleviating an overestimation of temperature inter-annual variability in the RCM. Also, the representation of the probability density functions of daily maximum summer temperature is improved when using the more advanced LSM. The reduced climate variability is linked to a larger ground heat flux and smaller variability in soil moisture and short-wave radiation. The latter effect results from the coupling of the LSM to the atmospheric module. In addition, using CLM3.5 reduces the sensitivity of COSMO-CLM2to extreme soil moisture conditions. An analysis assessing the relationship between the standard precipitation index and the subsequent number of hot days in summer reveals a better representation of this relationship using CLM3.5. Hence, we find that biases in climate variability and extremes can be reduced and the representation of land-climate coupling can be improved with the use of the more sophisticated LSM

Pembuatan Website E-Commerce Penjualan Barang Untuk Perusahaan PT. X Dengan Fitur Data Mining Generalize Sequential Pattern

PT. X is a company that sell cars and car\u27s spare parts by retail that use brick and mortar as base. PT. X want to make e-commerce website with hope that the website will help them expanding their market area for facing the rivalry with similar companies.The website poses online market feature that will help the users make their purchase and tracking their transaction they have done, users are divided into two category users and admin, admin are the PT. X promoting and selling their goods, while the users are the one who purchase through the website. This web is scripted using PHP, Ajax, and JavaScript, and user MySQL for creating the database. The development is done using notepad++ software.The data mining feature is based on generalize sequential pattern algorithm, where this feature is used to analyze the customers purchase behaviors and patterns by finding the connection between sold items based on time. Data is processed using the algorithm resulting frequent item sets that will turn into association rules in form of generalize sequential pattern table

Weather on Other Worlds. II. Survey Results: Spots Are Ubiquitous on L and T Dwarfs

We present results from the "Weather on Other Worlds" Spitzer Exploration Science program to investigate photometric variability in L and T dwarfs, usually attributed to patchy clouds. We surveyed 44 L3-T8 dwarfs, spanning a range of $J-K_s$ colors and surface gravities. We find that 14/23 (61%; 95% confidence interval: 41%-78%) of our single L3-L9.5 dwarfs are variable with peak-to-peak amplitudes between 0.2% and 1.5%, and 5/16 (31%; 95% confidence interval: 14%-56%) of our single T0-T8 dwarfs are variable with amplitudes between 0.8% and 4.6%. After correcting for sensitivity, we find that 80% (95% confidence interval: 53%-100%) of L dwarfs vary by >0.2%, and 36% (95% confidence interval: 19%-52%) of T dwarfs vary by >0.4%. Given viewing geometry considerations, we conclude that photospheric heterogeneities causing >0.2% 3-5-micron flux variations are present on virtually all L dwarfs, and probably on most T dwarfs. A third of L dwarf variables show irregular light curves, indicating that L dwarfs may have multiple spots that evolve over a single rotation. Also, approximately a third of the periodicities are on time scales >10 h, suggesting that slowly-rotating brown dwarfs may be common. We observe an increase in the maximum amplitudes over the entire spectral type range, revealing a potential for greater temperature contrasts in T dwarfs than in L dwarfs. We find a tentative association (92% confidence) between low surface gravity and high-amplitude variability among L3-L5.5 dwarfs. Although we can not confirm whether lower gravity is also correlated with a higher incidence of variables, the result is promising for the characterization of directly imaged young extrasolar planets through variability.Comment: 42 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables, accepted by Ap

Vertical Atmospheric Structure in a Variable Brown Dwarf: Pressure-dependent Phase Shifts in Simultaneous Hubble Space Telescope-Spitzer Light Curves

Heterogeneous clouds or temperature perturbations in rotating brown dwarfs produce variability in the observed flux. We report time-resolved simultaneous observations of the variable T6.5 brown dwarf 2MASSJ22282889-431026 over the wavelength ranges 1.1-1.7 microns and broadband 4.5 microns. Spectroscopic observations were taken with Wide Field Camera 3 on board the Hubble Space Telescope and photometry with the Spitzer Space Telescope. The object shows sinusoidal infrared variability with a period of 1.4 hr at most wavelengths with peak-to-peak amplitudes between 1.45% and 5.3% of the mean flux. While the light curve shapes are similar at all wavelengths, their phases differ from wavelength to wavelength with a maximum difference of more than half of a rotational period. We compare the spectra with atmospheric models of different cloud prescriptions, from which we determine the pressure levels probed at different wavelengths. We find that the phase lag increases with decreasing pressure level, or higher altitude. We discuss a number of plausible scenarios that could cause this trend of light curve phase with probed pressure level. These observations are the first to probe heterogeneity in an ultracool atmosphere in both horizontal and vertical directions, and thus are an ideal test case for realistic three dimensional simulations of the atmospheric structure with clouds in brown dwarfs and extrasolar planets.Comment: Accepted to ApJL, 6 pages, 3 figures. Minor language updates from v1 to match published versio

"How to project customer retention" revisited: the role of duration dependence

Cohort-level retention rates typically increase over time, and the beta-geometric (BG) distribution has proven to be a robust model for capturing and projecting these patterns into the future. According to this model, the phenomenon of increasing cohort-level retention rates is purely due to cross-sectional heterogeneity; an individual customer’s propensity to churn does not change over time. In this paper we present the beta-discrete-Weibull (BdW) distribution as an extension to the BG model, one that allows individual-level churn probabilities to increase or decrease over time. In addition to capturing the phenomenon of increasing cohort-level retention rates, this new model can also accommodate situations in which there is an initial dip in retention rates before they increase (i.e., a U-shaped cohort-level retention curve). A key finding is that even when aggregate retention rates are monotonically increasing, the individual-level churn probabilities are unlikely to be declining over time, as conventional wisdom would suggest. We carefully explore these connections between heterogeneity, duration dependence, and the shape of the retention curve, and draw some managerially relevant conclusions, e.g., that accounting for cross-sectional heterogeneity is more important than accounting for any individual-level dynamics in churn propensities

Extrasolar StormsExtrasolar~Storms: Pressure-dependent Changes In Light Curve Phase In Brown Dwarfs From Simultaneous HubbleHubble and SpitzerSpitzer Observations

We present $Spitzer$/IRAC Ch1 and Ch2 monitoring of six brown dwarfs during 8 different epochs over the course of 20 months. For four brown dwarfs, we also obtained simulataneous $HST$/WFC3 G141 Grism spectra during two epochs and derived light curves in five narrow-band filters. Probing different pressure levels in the atmospheres, the multi-wavelength light curves of our six targets all exhibit variations, and the shape of the light curves evolves over the timescale of a rotation period, ranging from 1.4 h to 13 h. We compare the shapes of the light curves and estimate the phase shifts between the light curves observed at different wavelengths by comparing the phase of the primary Fourier components. We use state-of-the-art atmosphere models to determine the flux contribution of different pressure layers to the observed flux in each filter. We find that the light curves that probe higher pressures are similar and in phase, but are offset and often different from the light curves that probe lower pressures. The phase differences between the two groups of light curves suggest that the modulations seen at lower and higher pressures may be introduced by different cloud layers.Comment: 34 pages, 22 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Can climate‐effective land management reduce regional warming?

Limiting global warming to well below 2°C is an imminent challenge for humanity. However, even if this global target can be met, some regions are still likely to experience substantial warming relative to others. Using idealized global climate simulations, we examine the potential of land management options in affecting regional climate, with a focus on crop albedo enhancement and irrigation (climate-effective land management). The implementation is performed over all crop regions globally to provide an upper bound. We find that the implementation of both crop albedo enhancement and irrigation can reduce hot temperature extremes by more than 2°C in North America, Eurasia, and India over the 21st century relative to a scenario without management application. The efficacy of crop albedo enhancement scales with the magnitude, where a cooling response exceeding 0.5°C for hot temperature extremes was achieved with a large (i.e., ≥0.08) change in crop albedo. Regional differences were attributed to the surface energy balance response with temperature changes mostly explained by latent heat flux changes for irrigation and net shortwave radiation changes for crop albedo enhancement. However, limitations do exist, where we identify warming over the winter months when climate-effective land management is temporarily suspended. This was associated with persistent cloud cover that enhances longwave warming. It cannot be confirmed if the magnitude of this feedback is reproducible in other climate models. Our results overall demonstrate that regional warming of hot extremes in our climate model can be partially mitigated when using an idealized treatment of climate-effective land management