Use of very high resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling: baseline performance and future flood changes

Increasingly, data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to drive hydrological models, to investigate the potential water-related impacts of climate change, particularly for flood and droughts. Generally, some form of further downscaling of RCM data has been required, but recently the first decadal-length runs of very high resolution RCMs (with convection-permitting scales) have been performed. Here, a set of such runs for southern Britain has been used to drive a gridded hydrological model. Results using a 1.5km RCM nested in a 12km RCM driven by European-reanalysis boundary conditions show that the 1.5km RCM generally performs worse than the 12km RCM for simulating river flows in 32 example catchments. The clear spatial patterns of bias are consistent with bias patterns shown in the RCM precipitation data. Results using 1.5km and 12km RCM runs for the current climate and a potential future climate (driven by GCM boundary conditions) show clear differences in projected changes in flood peaks. The 1.5km RCM tends towards larger increases than the 12km RCM, particularly in spring and winter. If robust, this could have important consequences for adaptation planning under climate change, but further research is required, particularly given the greater biases in the baseline flow simulations driven by 1.5km RCM data, and the use of only a single short future climate projection

Q-switched laser damage of infrared nonlinear materials

Q-switched laser-damage thresholds have been determined for six materials (proustite – Ag3AsS3, pyrargyrite – Ag3SbS3, cinnabar – HgS, silver thiogallate – AgGaS2, tellurium – Te, and gallium arsenide – GaAs) of interest for nonlinear optics in the medium infrared. Four TEM00 mode lasers were employed with outputs at wavelengths of 694 nm, 1.06, 2.098, and 10.6 µm. Damage has been found to be confined to the surface of the crystals and occurs for radiation intensities between 3 and 75 MW/cm2. Particular care is needed in the cutting and polishing of tellurium crystals if a high-damage threshold is to be achieved

Regional freshwater nitrogen budgets for Scotland

Following Carnell et al. (2019) which provided a nitrogen (N) budget for Scotland, this short project aims to provide freshwater N budgets for 10 Scottish hydrometric regions. The regional N budgets quantify key N flows across the hydrosphere and terrestrial systems (agricultural and semi-natural) and include N from human waste and atmospheric deposition. The freshwater model used here ‘LTLS-FM’ provides estimates of total N inputs to freshwater in 2010. The results indicate that total N inputs vary between regions, from 1.7 kT N for Orkney and Shetland, to 33.2 kT N for NE Scotland. However, when N inputs are divided by the area of the region, it becomes apparent that two of the smallest regions, Tweed and Forth, have the highest N inputs/km2. Across Scotland, LTLS-FM estimates of losses of freshwater N to coastal waters (151 kT N) and to the atmosphere (17.3 kT N) in 2010 were substantial, with more than half of the N losses originating from just 3 regions (Tay, Solway and NE Scotland). As much as 68% of Scotland’s N in freshwaters comes from agricultural land management, for which improved nutrient use efficiency could increase environmental as well as economic benefits. These data will contribute to the development of the Scottish Nitrogen Balance Sheet (SNBS), which is mandated under the Scottish Climate Change Act 2019

An assessment of the possible impacts of climate change on snow and peak river flows across Britain

A temperature-based snow module has been coupled with a grid-based distributed hydrological model, to improve simulations of river flows in upland areas of Britain subject to snowfall and snowmelt. The coupled model has been driven with data from an 11-member perturbed-parameter climate model ensemble, for two time-slices (1960-1990 and 2069-2099), to investigate the potential impacts of climate change. The analysis indicates large reductions in the ensemble mean of the number of lying snow days across the country. This in turn affects the seasonality of peak river flows in some parts of the country; for northerly regions, annual maxima tend to occur earlier in the water year in future. For more southerly regions the changes are less straightforward, and likely driven by changes in rainfall patterns rather than snow. The modelled percentage changes in peak flows illustrate high spatial variability in hydrological response to projected climate change, and large differences between ensemble members. When changes in projected future peak flows are compared to an estimate of current natural variability, more changes fall outside the range of natural variability in southern Britain than in the north

Static quantities of the W boson in the SU_L(3) X U_X(1) model with right-handed neutrinos

The static electromagnetic properties of the $W$ boson, $\Delta \kappa$ and $\Delta Q$, are calculated in the SU_L(3)} \times U_X(1) model with right-handed neutrinos. The new contributions from this model arise from the gauge and scalar sectors. In the gauge sector there is a new contribution from a complex neutral gauge boson $Y^0$ and a singly-charged gauge boson $Y^\pm$. The mass of these gauge bosons, called bileptons, is expected to be in the range of a few hundreds of GeV according to the current bounds from experimental data. If the bilepton masses are of the order of 200 GeV, the size of their contribution is similar to that obtained in other weakly coupled theories. However the contributions to both $\Delta Q$ and $\Delta \kappa$ are negligible for very heavy or degenerate bileptons. As for the scalar sector, an scenario is examined in which the contribution to the $W$ form factors is identical to that of a two-Higgs-doublet model. It is found that this sector would not give large corrections to $\Delta \kappa$ and $\Delta Q$.Comment: New material included. Final version to apppear in Physical Review

Long-range forecasts of UK winter hydrology

Seasonal river flow forecasts are beneficial for planning agricultural activities, river navigation, and for management of reservoirs for public water supply and hydropower generation. In the United Kingdom (UK), skilful seasonal river flow predictions have previously been limited to catchments in lowland (southern and eastern) regions. Here we show that skilful long-range forecasts of winter flows can now be achieved across the whole of the UK. This is due to a remarkable geographical complementarity between the regional geological and meteorological sources of predictability for river flows. Forecast skill derives from the hydrogeological memory of antecedent conditions in southern and eastern parts of the UK and from meteorological predictability in northern and western areas. Specifically, it is the predictions of the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic that provides the skill at the seasonal timescale. In addition, significant levels of skill in predicting the frequency of winter high flow events is demonstrated, which has the potential to allow flood adaptation measures to be put in place

An assessment of the potential for natural flood management to offset climate change impacts

Natural Flood Management (NFM) aims to work with natural processes to reduce flood risk, and can potentially contribute to integrated flood risk management (alongside engineering solutions) by providing landscape-based resilience to climate change impacts. Here, two approaches are used to assess the extent to which NFM could offset the impacts of climate change on floods in Great Britain. The first looks at specific catchments where there is quantitative evidence for the effect of NFM measures on peak flows. The second takes a broad-brush national view, assuming two potential levels of NFM reductions in peak flows. Both approaches use flood impacts derived from climate change projections for a range of future time-slices and emissions scenarios. The results show that NFM measures are much less likely to be able to offset the impacts of climate change for later time-slices and for higher emissions scenarios, but also that the chance of offsetting the impacts of climate change in any individual catchment will depend on its type (how sensitive it is to climatic changes) and its location (due to spatial variation in climatic changes). Confounding factors in the analysis include any time lag associated with the NFM reduction in peak flows, and different effects of NFM on peak flows of different return periods. It is also unclear whether there is any relationship between a catchment's type and its practical potential for implementing NFM, or the level of peak flow reduction that NFM could achieve; any such relationship could be critical in determining the overall potential for NFM to offset climate change impacts in different catchments. Although the focus here is Great Britain, a similar approach could be applied internationally

CCRA3 flooding projections, task 2a: high resolution climate change projections — fluvial. Technical note

As part of the CCRA3 flooding projections project, this task provides: 1. estimates of percentage changes in flood peaks for locations across the UK, using UKCP18 probabilistic projections applied for a set of global mean surface temperature (GMST) changes (ranging from 1.0°C to 4.5°C in increments of 0.5°C); and 2. estimates of change in return period corresponding to a range of peak flow uplifts, as look-up tables, for locations across the UK. The data are provided for use within the Future Flood Explorer (FFE) to investigate potential future flood risks under climate change, under a range of adaptation options. This technical report details the methodology used to produce the flood peak and return period data, including differences in the methods used for Great Britain and Nothern Ireland

Wave functions and decay constants of BB and DD mesons in the relativistic potential model

With the decay constants of $D$ and $D_s$ mesons measured in experiment recently, we revisit the study of the bound states of quark and antiquark in $B$ and $D$ mesons in the relativistic potential model. The relativistic bound state wave equation is solved numerically. The masses, decay constants and wave functions of $B$ and $D$ mesons are obtained. Both the masses and decay constants obtained here can be consistent with the experimental data. The wave functions can be used in the study of $B$ and $D$ meson decays.Comment: more discussion added, to appear in EPJ

When One Health Meets the United Nations Ocean Decade: Global Agendas as a Pathway to Promote Collaborative Interdisciplinary Research on Human-Nature Relationships

Strong evidence shows that exposure and engagement with the natural world not only improve human wellbeing but can also help promote environmentally friendly behaviors. Human-nature relationships are at the heart of global agendas promoted by international organizations including the World Health Organization’s (WHO) “One Health” and the United Nations (UN) “Ocean Decade.” These agendas demand collaborative multisector interdisciplinary efforts at local, national, and global levels. However, while global agendas highlight global goals for a sustainable world, developing science that directly addresses these agendas from design through to delivery and outputs does not come without its challenges. In this article, we present the outcomes of international meetings between researchers, stakeholders, and policymakers from the United Kingdom and Brazil. We propose a model for interdisciplinary work under such global agendas, particularly the interface between One Health and the UN Ocean Decade and identify three priority research areas closely linked to each other: human-nature connection, conservation-human behavior, and implementation strategies (bringing stakeholders together). We also discuss a number of recommendations for moving forward