EQUALIZATION ASPECTS OF FEDERAL AID TO EDUCATION: THE DISTRICT PERSPECTIVE

Public Economics,

NATURAL RESOURCE SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH

A computable general equilibrium model is used to estimate the impact a resource supply constraint, that restricts federal timber harvest, has on a timber dependent region. Impacts are compared to impacts generated from an input-output mode and indicate an upward bias in estimated income and employment losses using IO methods.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

The Economic Impact of a Possible Irrigation-Water Shortage in Odessa Sub-Basin of Adams and Lincoln Counties

The Columbia Basin Project (CBP) was one of the single largest projects undertaken by the Bureau of Reclamation. The venture, which started in the 1930s in Central Washington, did not entirely turn out as expected. In fact, almost half of the proposed irrigable area, located mainly in the north eastern portion of the original plan, doesn’t have any water supply from the project for irrigation purposes. The Odessa Sub-area is one of those areas. The land in this area is fertile and produces very high quality potatoes. Over the last couple of decades, production in this Odessa sub-region has been possible primarily because of irrigation based on deep wells. However, the underground water is drawing down and crop production may shut down as a result. Therefore, an economic threat on the economy of the Columbia Basin is in the offing, unless alternative water sources are negotiated. In this paper, we will mainly explore the regional economic impacts of the possible production losses of crops produced in the Odessa Sub-area of Lincoln and Adams Counties. In Section A, we briefly discuss the current status of the Columbia Basin Project. In Section B, we discuss ground water level decline issues. In Section C, we enumerate the economic impacts of a possible reduction in crop production in Odessa Subregions of Adams and Lincoln Counties. Summary and conclusions are in the final section.Irrigation water shortage, Idessa sub-basin, Economic Impact,

OUTPUT CHANGE IN U.S. AGRICULTURE: AN INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS

This paper analyzes output changes in the U.S. agricultural economy from 1972 to 1977 using a 477-sector input-output framework. The empirical model is based on benchmark input-output data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic analysis for 1972 and 1977. Output changes were decomposed into components attributable to technical change, domestic final demand change, export demand change and import substitution. A major advantage of the decomposition is its ability to identify the output change in a given sector due to general equilibrium effects in all sectors.Import substitution, Input-output, Output change, Technical change, Production Economics,

Organic Apple Production in Washington State: An Input-Output Analysis

This paper provides an Input-Output (I/O) based economic impact analysis for organic apple production in Washington State. The intent is to compare the economic “ripple” effect of organic production with conventional production. The analysis is presented in two scenarios: first we compare the economic impact of organic versus conventional apple production for a l demand increase of one million US$ as measured in sales. The second analysis looks at the economic impact of organic and conventional apple production in terms of given unit of land (405 hectares of production). Both state-wide output (sales) and employment (jobs) impacts are estimated under each scenario. Results are presented in terms of direct, indirect, and induced economic impact. Organic apple production was more labor intensive than conventional production. While, the organic apple sector used less intermediate inputs per unit of output than conventional production it also produced higher returns to labor and capital. As a result, the indirect economic effect was lower for the organic sector than the conventional sector, but the induced economic effect was higher for organic. Given the organic price premium, the economic impact (direct, indirect and induced) was larger for organic apple production than conventional apple production.conventional and organic apple production, multiplier effects, output, and employment effects, IMPLAN

MEAN-VARIANCE ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE HEDGING STRATEGIES

Demand and Price Analysis,

Comparing the Economic Impact of an Export Shock in Two Modeling Frameworks

Because of more restrictive assumptions on regional input-output (IO) models compared to computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, the literature agrees IO results are intuitively consistent with long run equilibrium but otherwise overestimated. We compare the results of IO and CGE models from an exogenous export shock under various labor market constraints and capital closures. Consistent with the literature, we find the IO model's results do not match those of the CGE models. But contrary to conventional wisdom, the positive secondary impacts are larger with the CGE models than with the IO model. Furthermore, we find the closest match between direct effects is when the CGE model has short run restrictions. Our finding means that the common view of CGE model results being both lower in estimate and more accurate in the short run than IO models does not universally hold. Thus researchers’ choice of models and interpretation of results need to be more nuanced and cautious than previously thought.input-output, computable general equilibrium, economic impacts, exports

LABOR MARKET BEHAVIOR IN WASHINGTON: A COINTEGRATION APPROACH

In recent years, the research that investigates impact of employment on other labor related variables has a prominent place in regional science. Generally, it is well understood that new business investment brings changes in population, increased labor force participation rate and migration of new residents. There is mixed research results regarding the extent that new migrants tend to account for new employment. Bartik (1993) found that about one-quarter of the new jobs go to local workers because of the increase in the labor force participation rates of local residents in the long run. He considered the long run effects by estimating the effects of 1% job growth in a certain period on the labor force participation rate seventeen years after the period. In contrast Blanchard and Katz's (1992) research reaches the opposite conclusion - in five to seven years the employment response consists entirely of the migration of new migrants. Their finding is that long-run effect of the job growth on the labor force participation rate is negligible. In this study, from the cointegration time series analysis, we found a long run equilibrium relationship among population, labor force participation rate and employment, in which population is positively related to employment and negatively related to labor force participation rate. The long run effect of a unit change of labor force participation rate (1%) is a decrease of 73,880 in population and the long run effect of a unit change in employment (1000) is an increase of 2,190 in population. We decomposed the time series into stationary components and non-stationary components. The pattern of the stationary component of population is quite similar to that of labor force participation rate while that of employment shows a different fluctuation. From the decomposition, it was obvious that the pattern of stationary component of employment and net migration is quite similar, which means net migration is the short run, temporary response to employment change. The patterns of three years delayed stationary components of population are similar to that of employment and net migration, and the plots correspond to changing economic conditions. According to the change in economic conditions population responds three years later than employment and net migration. We interpreted the non-stationary component of labor force participation rate as reflecting the increasing trend of labor force participation rate in Washington mainly due to a considerable increase in the female labor force participation. The impulse responses of population, employment and labor force participation rate to a one standard deviation shock in employment show permanent increase effects. They settle at different equilibrium value after long term periods. The response of the labor force participation rate to an impulse in employment supports Bartik's finding. Obviously the result is the opposite of Blanchard-Katz's finding that the long-run effect of job growth on the labor force participation rate is negligible. However, since the effect of population is also significantly high, we doubt that the effect of increase in labor force participation rate according to the employment shock covers only local resident labor force.Labor and Human Capital,

A General Equilibrium Analysis of Foreign and Domestic Demand Shocks Arising from Mad Cow Disease in the United States

The discovery of the first case of mad cow disease in the United States in 2003 reverberated across the beef and cattle industry. This study employs a general equilibrium model to analyze the potential economic effects of mad cow disease on the beef, cattle, and other meat industries under three scenarios, ranging form most favorable to most pessimistic. The scenario with 90% foreign demand decline and 10% domestic demand reduction generates results consistent with the actual outcomes after the mad cow disease outbreak. Only if domestic demand declines significantly will the economic hardship in the U.S. beef and cattle industry be very large.demand decline, economic effects, mad cow disease, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,