NATURAL RESOURCE SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH

A computable general equilibrium model is used to estimate the impact a resource supply constraint, that restricts federal timber harvest, has on a timber dependent region. Impacts are compared to impacts generated from an input-output mode and indicate an upward bias in estimated income and employment losses using IO methods.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Spanning trees of graphs on surfaces and the intensity of loop-erased random walk on planar graphs

We show how to compute the probabilities of various connection topologies for uniformly random spanning trees on graphs embedded in surfaces. As an application, we show how to compute the "intensity" of the loop-erased random walk in ${\mathbb Z}^2$, that is, the probability that the walk from (0,0) to infinity passes through a given vertex or edge. For example, the probability that it passes through (1,0) is 5/16; this confirms a conjecture from 1994 about the stationary sandpile density on ${\mathbb Z}^2$. We do the analogous computation for the triangular lattice, honeycomb lattice and ${\mathbb Z} \times {\mathbb R}$, for which the probabilities are 5/18, 13/36, and $1/4-1/\pi^2$ respectively.Comment: 45 pages, many figures. v2 has an expanded introduction, a revised section on the LERW intensity, and an expanded appendix on the annular matri

Robust Bayesian inference via coarsening

The standard approach to Bayesian inference is based on the assumption that the distribution of the data belongs to the chosen model class. However, even a small violation of this assumption can have a large impact on the outcome of a Bayesian procedure. We introduce a simple, coherent approach to Bayesian inference that improves robustness to perturbations from the model: rather than condition on the data exactly, one conditions on a neighborhood of the empirical distribution. When using neighborhoods based on relative entropy estimates, the resulting "coarsened" posterior can be approximated by simply tempering the likelihood---that is, by raising it to a fractional power---thus, inference is often easily implemented with standard methods, and one can even obtain analytical solutions when using conjugate priors. Some theoretical properties are derived, and we illustrate the approach with real and simulated data, using mixture models, autoregressive models of unknown order, and variable selection in linear regression

Manufacturing Metallic Parts with Designed Mesostructure via Three-Dimensional Printing of Metal Oxide Powder

Cellular materials, metallic bodies with gaseous voids, are a promising class of materials that offer high strength accompanied by a relatively low mass. In this paper, the authors investigate the use of ThreeDimensional Printing (3DP) to manufacture metallic cellular materials by selectively printing binder into a bed of metal oxide ceramic powder. The resulting green part undergoes a thermal chemical post-process in order to convert it to metal. As a result of their investigation, the authors are able to create cellular materials made of maraging steel that feature wall sizes as small as 400 µm and angled trusses and channels that are 1 mm in diameter.Mechanical Engineerin

Boundary Partitions in Trees and Dimers

Given a finite planar graph, a grove is a spanning forest in which every component tree contains one or more of a specified set of vertices (called nodes) on the outer face. For the uniform measure on groves, we compute the probabilities of the different possible node connections in a grove. These probabilities only depend on boundary measurements of the graph and not on the actual graph structure, i.e., the probabilities can be expressed as functions of the pairwise electrical resistances between the nodes, or equivalently, as functions of the Dirichlet-to-Neumann operator (or response matrix) on the nodes. These formulae can be likened to generalizations (for spanning forests) of Cardy's percolation crossing probabilities, and generalize Kirchhoff's formula for the electrical resistance. Remarkably, when appropriately normalized, the connection probabilities are in fact integer-coefficient polynomials in the matrix entries, where the coefficients have a natural algebraic interpretation and can be computed combinatorially. A similar phenomenon holds in the so-called double-dimer model: connection probabilities of boundary nodes are polynomial functions of certain boundary measurements, and as formal polynomials, they are specializations of the grove polynomials. Upon taking scaling limits, we show that the double-dimer connection probabilities coincide with those of the contour lines in the Gaussian free field with certain natural boundary conditions. These results have direct application to connection probabilities for multiple-strand SLE_2, SLE_8, and SLE_4.Comment: 46 pages, 12 figures. v4 has additional diagrams and other minor change

Representation of Lesbian and Gay Men in Federal, State, and Local Bureaucracies

Americans increasingly view lesbians and gay men as a legitimate minority, entitled to equal employment opportunities and perhaps to adequate representation in government. Scholars of public administration have extensively studied whether women and racial minorities receive fair representation and pay in the public sector, but we have generally ignored lesbians and gay men, largely because we lack data on the sexual orientation of government employees. Using a 5 percent sample of the 2000 Census, this paper provides new insights into one group of lesbian and gay employees: full-time workers with same-sex unmarried partners. It first determines whether they are as likely to hold jobs in the public and nonprofit sectors as workers who are married, have different-sex unmarried partners, or have never been married. Second, it explores whether lesbians' and gay men's representation is concentrated in particular occupations. It then examines whether workers with same-sex partners earn as much as other workers, and whether any disparities can be explained by race, gender, education, age, occupation, and location. Working Paper 08-2

Wave techniques for noise modeling and measurement

The noise wave approach is applied to analysis, modeling, and measurement applications. Methods are presented for the calculation of component and network noise wave correlation matrices. Embedding calculations, relations to two-port figures-of-merit, and transformations to traditional representations are discussed. Simple expressions are derived for MESFET and HEMT noise wave parameters based on a linear equivalent circuit. A noise wave measurement technique is presented and experimentally compared with the conventional method