Government Failure and Market Failure: On the Inefficiency of Environmental and Energy Policy

In this essay, we describe some important themes in energy and environmental policy. There are two main reasons for our interest in these policies. First, such policies will likely be important in the coming decades as issues related to climate change and energy security come to the fore. Second, there are important lessons to be learned from a careful review of the actual performance of energy and environmental policies. We undertake a selective survey of the literature to highlight what is known about the efficiency of particular kinds of policies, laws and regulations in these areas.

Likelihood Non-Gaussianity in Large-Scale Structure Analyses

Standard present day large-scale structure (LSS) analyses make a major assumption in their Bayesian parameter inference --- that the likelihood has a Gaussian form. For summary statistics currently used in LSS, this assumption, even if the underlying density field is Gaussian, cannot be correct in detail. We investigate the impact of this assumption on two recent LSS analyses: the Beutler et al. (2017) power spectrum multipole ($P_\ell$) analysis and the Sinha et al. (2017) group multiplicity function ($\zeta$) analysis. Using non-parametric divergence estimators on mock catalogs originally constructed for covariance matrix estimation, we identify significant non-Gaussianity in both the $P_\ell$ and $\zeta$ likelihoods. We then use Gaussian mixture density estimation and Independent Component Analysis on the same mocks to construct likelihood estimates that approximate the true likelihood better than the Gaussian $pseudo$-likelihood. Using these likelihood estimates, we accurately estimate the true posterior probability distribution of the Beutler et al. (2017) and Sinha et al. (2017) parameters. Likelihood non-Gaussianity shifts the $f\sigma_8$ constraint by $-0.44\sigma$, but otherwise, does not significantly impact the overall parameter constraints of Beutler et al. (2017). For the $\zeta$ analysis, using the pseudo-likelihood significantly underestimates the uncertainties and biases the constraints of Sinha et al. (2017) halo occupation parameters. For $\log M_1$ and $\alpha$, the posteriors are shifted by $+0.43\sigma$ and $-0.51\sigma$ and broadened by $42\%$ and $66\%$, respectively. The divergence and likelihood estimation methods we present provide a straightforward framework for quantifying the impact of likelihood non-Gaussianity and deriving more accurate parameter constraints.Comment: 33 pages, 7 figure

The Progression of β-amyloid Deposition in the Frontal Cortex of the Aged Canine

Brains from 41 aged canines (≥10 years of age) were examined immunohistochemically to characterize the laminar distribution and age-related progression of β-amyloid (Aβ) in frontal cortex. We classified the Aβ patterns into four distinct types. Type I was characterized by small, faint deposits of Aβ in deep cortical layers. Type II consisted of diffuse deposits of Aβ mainly in layers V and VI. Type III had both dense plaques in superficial layers, and diffuse deposits in deep layers. Finally, Type IV had solely dense plaques throughout all layers of cortex. We compared the Aβ distribution pattern between the Old canines (10–15 years, n=22) and the Very Old canines (\u3e15 years, n=19). The Old group primarily had negative staining, or Type I and Type II patterns of amyloid deposition (73%). Conversely, the Very Old group had predominantly Types II, III and IV deposits (89.5%), a difference that was significant (Pβ deposition in canine frontal cortex is a progressive age-related process beginning with diffuse deposits in the deep cortical layers followed by the development of deposits in outer layers. In support of this hypothesis, the deeper layer diffuse plaques in the Very Old group of dogs also contain the largest proportion of β-amyloid with an isomerized aspartic acid residue at position 7, indicating that these deposits had been present for some time. We also observed fiber-like Aβ immunoreactivity within regions of diffuse Aβ deposits. These fibers appeared to be degenerating neurites, which were negative for hyperphosphorylated tau. Therefore, these fibers may represent a very early form of neuritic change that precede tau hyperphosphorylation or develop by an alternative pathway

A Statement on the Appropriate Role for Research and Development in Climate Policy

This statement is issued by a group of economists and scientists which met at Stanford University on October 18, 2008 to discuss the role of research and development (R&D) in developing effective policies for addressing the adverse potential consequences of climate change. We believe that climate change is a serious issue that governments need to address. We also believe that research and development needs to be a central part of governments’ strategies for responding to this challenge. Solutions to manage long-term risks will require the development and global deployment of a range of technologies for energy supply and end-use, land-use, agriculture and adaptation that are not currently commercial. A key potential benefit of focused scientific and technological research and development investment is that it could dramatically reduce the cost of restricting greenhouse gas emissions by encouraging the development of more affordable, better performing technologies.

A probabilistic analysis of argument cogency

This paper offers a probabilistic treatment of the conditions for argument cogency as endorsed in informal logic: acceptability, relevance, and sufficiency. Treating a natural language argument as a reason-claim-complex, our analysis identifies content features of defeasible argument on which the RSA conditions depend, namely: change in the commitment to the reason, the reason’s sensitivity and selectivity to the claim, one’s prior commitment to the claim, and the contextually determined thresholds of acceptability for reasons and for claims. Results contrast with, and may indeed serve to correct, the informal understanding and applications of the RSA criteria concerning their conceptual dependence, their function as update-thresholds, and their status as obligatory rather than permissive norms, but also show how these formal and informal normative approachs can in fact align

Ancient and Recent Positive Selection Transformed Opioid cis-Regulation in Humans

Changes in the cis-regulation of neural genes likely contributed to the evolution of our species' unique attributes, but evidence of a role for natural selection has been lacking. We found that positive natural selection altered the cis-regulation of human prodynorphin, the precursor molecule for a suite of endogenous opioids and neuropeptides with critical roles in regulating perception, behavior, and memory. Independent lines of phylogenetic and population genetic evidence support a history of selective sweeps driving the evolution of the human prodynorphin promoter. In experimental assays of chimpanzee–human hybrid promoters, the selected sequence increases transcriptional inducibility. The evidence for a change in the response of the brain's natural opioids to inductive stimuli points to potential human-specific characteristics favored during evolution. In addition, the pattern of linked nucleotide and microsatellite variation among and within modern human populations suggests that recent selection, subsequent to the fixation of the human-specific mutations and the peopling of the globe, has favored different prodynorphin cis-regulatory alleles in different parts of the world