Woodford goes to Africa

This paper analyses the effects of inflation shocks, demands shocks, and aid shocks on low-income, quasi-emerging-market economies, and discusses how monetary policy can be used to manage these effects. We make use of a model developed for such economies by Adam et al. (2007). We examine the e¤ects of four things which this model features, which we take to be typical of such economies. These are: the existence of a tradeables/non-tradeables production structure, the fact that international capital movements are - at least initially - confined to the effects of currency substitution by domestic residents, the use of targets for financial assets in the implementation of monetary policy, and the pursuit, in some countries, of a fixed exchange rate. We then modify the model to examine the effect on such economies of three major changes, changes which we take to be part of the transition by such economies towards more fully- fledged emerging-market status: an opening of the capital account so that uncovered- interest-parity comes to hold, a move to floating exchange rates, and the replacement of fixed stocks of financial aggregates by the pursuit of a Taylor rule in the conduct of monetary policy.currency substitution, emerging market macroeconomics, interactions between fiscal and monetary policy, Taylor rule

Variational Inference for Generalized Linear Mixed Models Using Partially Noncentered Parametrizations

The effects of different parametrizations on the convergence of Bayesian computational algorithms for hierarchical models are well explored. Techniques such as centering, noncentering and partial noncentering can be used to accelerate convergence in MCMC and EM algorithms but are still not well studied for variational Bayes (VB) methods. As a fast deterministic approach to posterior approximation, VB is attracting increasing interest due to its suitability for large high-dimensional data. Use of different parametrizations for VB has not only computational but also statistical implications, as different parametrizations are associated with different factorized posterior approximations. We examine the use of partially noncentered parametrizations in VB for generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). Our paper makes four contributions. First, we show how to implement an algorithm called nonconjugate variational message passing for GLMMs. Second, we show that the partially noncentered parametrization can adapt to the quantity of information in the data and determine a parametrization close to optimal. Third, we show that partial noncentering can accelerate convergence and produce more accurate posterior approximations than centering or noncentering. Finally, we demonstrate how the variational lower bound, produced as part of the computation, can be useful for model selection.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-STS418 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Review: Acoustic emission technique - Opportunities, challenges and current work at QUT

Acoustic emission (AE) is the phenomenon where high frequency stress waves are generated by rapid release of energy within a material by sources such as crack initiation or growth. AE technique involves recording these stress waves by means of sensors placed on the surface and subsequent analysis of the recorded signals to gather information such as the nature and location of the source. AE is one of the several non-destructive testing (NDT) techniques currently used for structural health monitoring (SHM) of civil, mechanical and aerospace structures. Some of its advantages include ability to provide continuous in-situ monitoring and high sensitivity to crack activity. Despite these advantages, several challenges still exist in successful application of AE monitoring. Accurate localization of AE sources, discrimination between genuine AE sources and spurious noise sources and damage quantification for severity assessment are some of the important issues in AE testing and will be discussed in this paper. Various data analysis and processing approaches will be applied to manage those issues

Effect of impact ionization in the InGaAs absorber on excess noise of avalanche photodiodes

The effects of impact ionization in the InGaAs absorption layer on the multiplication, excess noise and breakdown voltage are modeled for avalanche photodiodes (APDs), both with InP and with InAlAs multiplication regions. The calculations allow for dead space effects and for the low field electron ionization observed in InGaAs. The results confirm that impact ionization in the InGaAs absorption layer increases the excess noise in InP APDs and that the effect imposes tight constraints on the doping of the charge control layer if avalanche noise is to be minimized. However, the excess noise of InAlAs APDs is predicted to be reduced by impact ionization in the InGaAs layer. Furthermore the breakdown voltage of InAlAs APDs is less sensitive to ionization in the InGaAs layer and these results increase tolerance to doping variations in the field control layer