Was Scotland deglaciated during the Younger Dryas?

Recent work has produced data that challenges the canonical view that the Younger Dryas (c.12.9–11.7 ka) was a time of glacier expansion across the North Atlantic. Boulders on moraines located within the inner sector of the Scottish Loch Lomond Stadial (≈Younger Dryas) ice cap yield cosmogenic exposure ages 12.8–11.3 ka with a best estimate moraine age of 11.5 ± 0.6 ka. This age contradicts the interpretation that Scotland was completely deglaciated as early as 12,580 cal yr BP and no later than 12,200 cal yr BP. Our data supports the previously accepted scenario, supported by a wide variety of data, that final deglaciation of Scotland did not occur until late in the Loch Lomond Stadial or the early Holocene

Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inflation as new releases of data become available. The marginal contribution of a particular release for the value of the signal and its precision is evaluated by computing "news" on the basis of an evolving conditioning information set. The marginal contribution is then split into what is due to timeliness of information and what is due to economic content. We find that the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is larger than that of the Employment Report. When we control for timeliness of the releases, the effect of hard data becomes sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables and interest rates. JEL Classification: E52, C33, C53factor model, forecasting, Large Data Sets, monetary policy, news, Real Time Data

Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on out-put and inflation as new releases of data become available. The marginal contribution of a particular release for the value of the signal and its precision is evaluated by computing "news" on the basis of an evolving conditioning information set. The marginal contribution is then split into what is due to timeliness of information and what is due to economic content. We find that the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is larger than that of the Employment Report. When we control for timeliness of the releases, the effect of hard data becomes sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables and interest rates

Establishing the relationship of inhaler satisfaction, treatment adherence, and patient outcomes : A prospective, real-world, cross-sectional survey of US adult asthma patients and physicians

Date of Acceptance: 26/06/2015 Acknowledgements The disease-specific program, on which the analyses were based, was designed and run by Adelphi Real World. The program was supported by a number of pharmaceutical companies, including Meda Pharmaceuticals. This specific analysis, together with this publication, was supported by Meda Pharmaceuticals. The decision to publish was made jointly by all authors cited. Medical writing support and literature searching was provided by Carole Alison Chrvala, PhD of Health Matters, Inc.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Discrete Optimization for Interpretable Study Populations and Randomization Inference in an Observational Study of Severe Sepsis Mortality

Motivated by an observational study of the effect of hospital ward versus intensive care unit admission on severe sepsis mortality, we develop methods to address two common problems in observational studies: (1) when there is a lack of covariate overlap between the treated and control groups, how to define an interpretable study population wherein inference can be conducted without extrapolating with respect to important variables; and (2) how to use randomization inference to form confidence intervals for the average treatment effect with binary outcomes. Our solution to problem (1) incorporates existing suggestions in the literature while yielding a study population that is easily understood in terms of the covariates themselves, and can be solved using an efficient branch-and-bound algorithm. We address problem (2) by solving a linear integer program to utilize the worst case variance of the average treatment effect among values for unobserved potential outcomes that are compatible with the null hypothesis. Our analysis finds no evidence for a difference between the sixty day mortality rates if all individuals were admitted to the ICU and if all patients were admitted to the hospital ward among less severely ill patients and among patients with cryptic septic shock. We implement our methodology in R, providing scripts in the supplementary material

Impact of night-time symptoms in COPD : a real-world study in five European countries

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Historical cohort study examining comparative effectiveness of albuterol inhalers with and without integrated dose counter for patients with asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

This study was supported financially by an unrestricted grant from Teva Pharmaceuticals, Frazer, PA, USA. The authors thank Jenny Fanstone of Fanstone Medical Communications Ltd., UK, and Elizabeth V Hillyer for medical writing support, funded by Research in Real-Life. We acknowledge with gratitude Dr Ruchir Parikh for his review of and contributions to the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD