Banking Crisis Resolution Policy - Lessons from Recent Experience - which elements are needed for robust and efficient crisis resolution?

The current financial crisis has sparked intense debate about how weak banks should be resolved. Despite international efforts to coordinate and converge on such policies, national policy advice and resolution practices differ. The resolution methods adopted in the Nordic banking crises in the 1990s are generally acknowledged to include important elements of “best practice”. But some of these lessons have proved hard to implement during the current crisis, and new policies have been developed as a response, particularly in the UK. Still, unresolved issues remain. These are discussed in a review of the resolution methods in the US, UK and NZ.crisis resolution, banks, special resolution regime

The CIS - Does the Regional Hegemon Facilitate Monetary Integration?

We consider the likely economic impact and prospects for monetary integration among Belarus, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation and Ukraine as part of the Single Economic Space they have agreed to set up. A monetary union among these countries poses three interesting issues for the structure and process of integration: they have already been members of a wider cur-rency union that collapsed, so it is necessary to handle the problems of his-tory; secondly the union would be of very unequal size with the Russian Federation outweighing the others taken together, so we must consider how the national interests would be balanced; lastly natural resources, particu-larly oil and gas pose problems for dependence and for the determination of the external exchange rate

The role of market discipline in handling problem banks

This paper considers the conditions that are necessary for market discipline to complement prompt corrective action (PCA) by the authorities in handling problem banks. We initially consider precisely what market discipline means in this context, who exercises it and the preconditions that are necessary for it to operate effectively. We explore the incentives that are necessary for PCA and market discipline to reinforce rather than cancel each other and in particular consider the limits to market discipline in this context from corporate governance and from difficulties in valuation. While our analysis is primarily aimed at advanced countries, we also examine problems in emerging markets and how deposit insurance arrangements might conflict with the aims of both PCA and market discipline.market discipline; banks; prompt corrective action

The role of market discipline in handling problem banks

This paper considers the conditions that are necessary for market discipline to complement prompt corrective action (PCA) by the authorities in handling problem banks. We initially consider precisely what market discipline means in this context, who exercises it and the preconditions that are necessary for it to operate effectively. We explore the incentives that are necessary for PCA and market discipline to reinforce rather than cancel each other and in particular consider the limits to market discipline in this context from corporate governance and from difficulties in valuation. While our analysis is primarily aimed at advanced countries, we also examine problems in emerging markets and how deposit insurance arrangements might conflict with the aims of both PCA and market discipline.market discipline, banks, prompt corrective action

Investigating the Early Signals of Banking Sector Vulnerabilities in Central and East European Emerging Markets

This paper considers the joint role of macro-economic and bankspecific factors in explaining the occurrence of banking problems in the twenty-one Central and East European emerging markets over the recent decade. Using data at the individual bank level we show, using a logit model, that the macroeconomic factors play a central role in determining banking sector instability in the early stages of difficulty, while the bankspecific factors are more important in the later stages and gain more weight as the banking sector develops and the institutional framework becomes mature.banking sector vulnerability, banking crises, early warning indicators, Central and Eastern Europe

Asymmetry and the Problem of Aggregation in the Euro Area

This paper highlights the implications for EU macroeconomic policy at a relatively disaggregated level when key economic relationships are nonlinear or asymmetric. Using data for the EU and OECD countries we show that there are considerable non-linearities and asymmetries in the Phillips and Okun curves. High unemployment has a relatively limited effect in pulling inflation down while low unemployment can be much more effective in driving it up. Downturns in the economy are both more rapid and sustained in driving unemployment up than recoveries are in bringing it down. There is considerable variety in these relationships and in IS curves across not just countries but also sectors and regions.aggregation; asymmetry; monetary policy; nonlinear models; Okun curve; Phillips curve

Asymmetries in the Euro area economy

Using quarterly data for the period since 1987 this paper explores, in the context of a small model of the EU economy, the degree to which monetary policy has been asymmetric. It shows in particular that monetary policy has been much more responsive to threats that inflation would lie outside the price stability target than to equal sized shocks within the target zone. Similarly monetary policy has responded to threats of large positive and negative output gaps but has remained largely unresponsive to smaller divergences. It thus appears that the ECB and its predecessors have been avoiding ‘fine-tuning’ but have been aggressive in responding to substantial threats to macroeconomic stability. The action seems to have been stronger with respect to inflationary pressure than to deflation but this may offset any bias in fiscal policy. The asymmetric response of policy in part reflects considerable non-linearities and asymmetries in the behaviour of the euro area economies. High unemployment has relatively limited effect in pulling inflation down while low unemployment can be much more effective in driving it up. Economic downturns are both more rapid and sustained in driving unemployment up than recoveries are in bringing it down. There is considerable variety in these relationships and IS curves across countries, sectors and regions. Monetary policy reacts in the light of this.monetary policy, asymmetry

Asymmetries in the Euro area economy

Using quarterly data for the period since 1987 this paper explores, in the context of a small model of the EU economy, the degree to which monetary policy has been asymmetric. It shows in particular that monetary policy has been much more responsive to threats that inflation would lie outside the price stability target than to equal sized shocks within the target zone. Similarly monetary policy has responded to threats of large positive and negative output gaps but has remained largely unresponsive to smaller divergences. It thus appears that the ECB and its predecessors have been avoiding 'fine-tuning' but have been aggressive in responding to substantial threats to macroeconomic stability. The action seems to have been stronger with respect to inflationary pressure than to deflation but this may offset any bias in fiscal policy. The asymmetric response of policy in part reflects considerable non-linearities and asymmetries in the behaviour of the euro area economies. High unemployment has relatively limited effect in pulling inflation down while low unemployment can be much more effective in driving it up. Economic downturns are both more rapid and sustained in driving unemployment up than recoveries are in bringing it down. There is considerable variety in these relationships and IS curves across countries, sectors and regions. Monetary policy reacts in the light of this.monetary policy; asymmetry

The CIS – does the regional hegemon facilitate monetary integration?

We consider the likely economic impact and prospects for monetary integration among Belarus, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation and Ukraine as part of the Single Economic Space they have agreed to set up. A monetary union among these countries poses three interesting issues for the structure and process of integration: they have already been members of a wider currency union that collapsed, so it is necessary to handle the problems of history; secondly the union would be of very unequal size with the Russian Federation outweighing the others taken together, so we must consider how the national interests would be balanced; lastly natural resources, particularly oil and gas pose problems for dependence and for the determination of the external exchange rate.monetary union; CIS; economic integration

Multiple safety net regulators and agency problems in the European Union: Is prompt corrective action partly the solution?

This paper discusses the institutional changes needed in Europe if prompt corrective action (PCA) is to be effective in supervising and resolving cross-border banking groups. The paper identifies these changes starting with enhancements in the availability of information on banking groups’ financial condition to prudential supervisors. Next, the paper considers the collective decision making by prudential supervisors with authority to make discretionary decisions within the PCA framework as soon as a bank in a cross-border banking group falls below the minimum capital standard. Finally, the paper analyzes the coordination measures that should be implemented if PCA requires the bank to be resolved.