Ethics of the scientist qua policy advisor: inductive risk, uncertainty, and catastrophe in climate economics

This paper discusses ethical issues surrounding Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the economic effects of climate change, and how climate economists acting as policy advisors ought to represent the uncertain possibility of catastrophe. Some climate economists, especially Martin Weitzman, have argued for a precautionary approach where avoiding catastrophe should structure climate economists’ welfare analysis. This paper details ethical arguments that justify this approach, showing how Weitzman’s “fat tail” probabilities of climate catastrophe pose ethical problems for widely used IAMs. The main claim is that economists who ignore or downplay catastrophic risks in their representations of uncertainty likely fall afoul of ethical constraints on scientists acting as policy advisors. Such scientists have duties to honestly articulate uncertainties and manage (some) inductive risks, or the risks of being wrong in different ways

Harper Collins, 1998: A Review by David Frank

I received this book in a package labelled “extremely urgent”, and the provocative title inside certainly sounded a note of alarm. In several short, forceful chapters the retired York University historian Jack Granatstein argues for the restoration of Canadian history to its proper place at the centre of public discourse in this country

Location of the target pitch within a vibrato wave

The current study investigated the relationship between the vibrato wave and the target pitch while eliminating some of the methodological problems that have plagued such research in the past. Three commercially-recorded selections were chosen for each of seven artists (for a total of 21 selections), and modern computer equipment was used to extract pitch information for each of six to fourteen notes from each selection. The chosen selections were all accompanied so that the target pitch could be determined from the accompaniment, and target pitch location within the vibrato wave was quantified absolutely and relatively. In general, the target pitch lay at or slightly below (average 4.29 cents below) the vibrato wave mean, and an analysis of variance revealed no significant differences between artists. Analyses of variance within each artist showed no differences between selections except for the soprano, who had one selection where the target pitch was generally above the vibrato wave mean

Maximum a Posteriori Estimation by Search in Probabilistic Programs

We introduce an approximate search algorithm for fast maximum a posteriori probability estimation in probabilistic programs, which we call Bayesian ascent Monte Carlo (BaMC). Probabilistic programs represent probabilistic models with varying number of mutually dependent finite, countable, and continuous random variables. BaMC is an anytime MAP search algorithm applicable to any combination of random variables and dependencies. We compare BaMC to other MAP estimation algorithms and show that BaMC is faster and more robust on a range of probabilistic models.Comment: To appear in proceedings of SOCS1

Social signals and algorithmic trading of Bitcoin

The availability of data on digital traces is growing to unprecedented sizes, but inferring actionable knowledge from large-scale data is far from being trivial. This is especially important for computational finance, where digital traces of human behavior offer a great potential to drive trading strategies. We contribute to this by providing a consistent approach that integrates various datasources in the design of algorithmic traders. This allows us to derive insights into the principles behind the profitability of our trading strategies. We illustrate our approach through the analysis of Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency known for its large price fluctuations. In our analysis, we include economic signals of volume and price of exchange for USD, adoption of the Bitcoin technology, and transaction volume of Bitcoin. We add social signals related to information search, word of mouth volume, emotional valence, and opinion polarization as expressed in tweets related to Bitcoin for more than 3 years. Our analysis reveals that increases in opinion polarization and exchange volume precede rising Bitcoin prices, and that emotional valence precedes opinion polarization and rising exchange volumes. We apply these insights to design algorithmic trading strategies for Bitcoin, reaching very high profits in less than a year. We verify this high profitability with robust statistical methods that take into account risk and trading costs, confirming the long-standing hypothesis that trading based social media sentiment has the potential to yield positive returns on investment.Comment: http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/2/9/15028

Projective structures and projective bundles over compact Riemann surfaces

A projective structure on a compact Riemann surface X of genus g is given by an atlas with transition functions in PGL(2,C). Equivalently, a projective structure is given by a projective sl(2,C)-bundle over X equipped with a section s and a foliation F which is both transversal to the fibers and the section s. From this latter geometric bundle picture, we survey on classical problems and results on projective structures. We will give a complete description of projective (actually affine) structures on the torus with an explicit versal family of foliated bundle picture

Modular frames for Hilbert C*-modules and symmetric approximation of frames

We give a comprehensive introduction to a general modular frame construction in Hilbert C*-modules and to related modular operators on them. The Hilbert space situation appears as a special case. The reported investigations rely on the idea of geometric dilation to standard Hilbert C*-modulesover unital C*-algebras that admit an orthonormal Riesz basis. Interrelations and applications to classical linear frame theory are indicated. As an application we describe the nature of families of operators {S_i} such that SUM_i S*_iS_i=id_H, where H is a Hilbert space. Resorting to frames in Hilbert spaces we discuss some measures for pairs of frames to be close to one another. Most of the measures are expressed in terms of norm-distances of different kinds of frame operators. In particular, the existence and uniqueness of the closest (normalized) tight frame to a given frame is investigated. For Riesz bases with certain restrictions the set of closetst tight frames often contains a multiple of its symmetric orthogonalization (i.e. L\"owdin orthogonalization).Comment: SPIE's Annual Meeting, Session 4119: Wavelets in Signal and Image Processing; San Diego, CA, U.S.A., July 30 - August 4, 2000. to appear in: Proceedings of SPIE v. 4119(2000), 12 p