nsolvency Experience, Risk-Based Capital, and Prompt Corrective Action in Property-Liability Insurance

In December 1992, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) adopted a life-health insurer risk-based capital (RBC) formula and model law that became effective with the 1993 annual statement filed in March 1994. In principle, well-designed RBC requirements can help achieve an efficient reduction in the expected costs of insolvencies. They can provide incentives for insurers to operate safely in cases where market incentives are weak due to government mandated guarantees of insurer obligations or asymmetries regarding solvency between insurers and buyers. RBC requirements also may facilitate or encourage prompt corrective action by solvency regulators by helping regulators to identify weak insurers and giving regulators legal authority to intervene when capital falls below specified levels. RBC requirements may force regulators to act in amore timely manner when confronted with external pressure to delay action. However, RBC capital requirements have a number ofpotential limitations. Unavoidable imperfections in any meaningful RBC system will likely distort some insurer decisions in undesirable and unintended ways. RBC requirements by themselves will do little or nothing to help regulators determine when an insurer s reported capital (surplus) is overstated due to understatement of liabilities or overstatement of assets. A well-designed RBC system should minimize costs associated with misclassification of insurers. The system should be able to identify a high proportion of troubled companies early enough to permit regulators to take prompt corrective action and should identify as troubled only a minimal proportion of financially sound insurers. This study analyzes data on solvent and insolvent property-liability insurers to determine whether modifications in the NAIC s RBC formula can improve its ability to predict firms that subsequently fail without substantially increasing the proportion of surviving insurers that are incorrectly predicted to fail. It uses logistic regression models to investigate whether changes in the weight for the major components in the RBC formula and incorporation of information on company size and organizational form improve the tradeoff between Type I error rates (the percentage of insurers that later failed that are incorrectly predicted not to fail) and the Type II error rates (the percentage of surviving insurers that are incorrectly predicted to fail). The data analyzed were for 1989-91 for firms that subsequently failed and for firms that survived through the first nine months of 1993. The authors make four main conclusions. First, less than half of the companies that later failed had RBC ratios within the proposed ranges for regulatory and company action. Second, total and component RBC ratios generally are significantly different for failed and surviving firms based on univariate tests. Third, estimation of multiple logistic regression models of insolvency risk indicated that allowing the weights of the RBC component to vary and including firm size and organizational form variables generally produce a material improvement in the tradeoff between sample Type I and Type II error rates. And, fourth,the RBC models are noticeably less successful in predicting large firm insolvencies than in predicting smaller insolvencies. Regarding the estimated weights in the logistic regression models, a major conclusion is the reserve component of the NAIC risk-based capital formula, which accounts for half of industry risk-based capital, has virtually no predictive power in any of the tests conducted. Given the high costs associated with large failures and the inferior performance of the models in predicting large insolvencies, a higher payoff in terms of reduced insolvency costs is likely to be achieved by developing models that perform better for large firms.

The Quality of Emergency Medical Services

Although Emergency Medical Services (EMS) is a crucial part of the health care system, there is relatively little research on the quality of those services. EMS agencies often measure their performance using criteria such as response time or total prehospital time. But larger scale studies that cross counties and providers are rare. This Issue Brief summarizes two studies that use comprehensive, longitudinal data from one state to assess the demographic, geographic, and professional factors that affect EMS performance

Collisional Quenching of High Rotational Levels in A_2_+ OH

Collisional removal of the v_=0 level of the A_2_+ state of the OH radical has been studied as a function of rotational level N_ at room temperature. OH in high rotational levels of the X_2_i state were created by 193 nm photolysis of HNO3 and excited to A_2_+ by a tunable dye laser. Time decays of fluorescence at varying pressures were measured. For O2 and H2, the quenching cross section _Q decreased with increasing N_ until N__10; for higher N_ it appears to remain approximately constant. Xe behaves the same way except that the decrease continues to N_=15. For Kr, _Q appears to decrease to within experimental error of zero at N_=10; and for N2 it was within error of zero above N_=10. These results have implications for laser-induced fluorescence atmospheric monitoring of OH and combustion temperature determinations, as well as a fundamental understanding of collisional quenching. Quenching of OH, N__1, by HNO3 was found to be 81±8 A2.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/86761/1/Sick30.pd

Asymptotic Freedom for Non-Relativistic Confinement

Some aspects of asymptotic freedom are discussed in the context of a simple two-particle non-relativisitic confining potential model. In this model asymptotic freedom follows from the similarity of the free-particle and bound state radial wave functions at small distances and for the same angular momentum and the same large energy. This similarity, which can be understood using simple quantum mechanical arguments, can be used to show that the exact response function approaches that obtained when final state interactions are ignored. A method of calculating corrections to this limit is given and explicit examples are given for the case of the harmonic oscillator.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures, RevTex

Cellular Models of Aggregation-Dependent Template-Directed Proteolysis to Characterize Tau Aggregation Inhibitors for Treatment of Alzheimer's Disease

Copyright © 2015, The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology. Acknowledgements-We thank Drs Timo Rager and Rolf Hilfiker (Solvias, Switzerland) for polymorph analyses.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Deconstructing Circadian Disruption: Assessing the Contribution of Reduced Peripheral Oscillator Amplitude on Obesity and Glucose Intolerance in Mice

Disturbing the circadian regulation of physiology by disruption of the rhythmic environment is associated with adverse health outcomes but the underlying mechanisms are unknown. Here, the response of central and peripheral circadian clocks to an advance or delay of the light-dark cycle was determined in mice. This identified transient damping of peripheral clocks as a consequence of an advanced light-dark cycle. Similar depression of peripheral rhythm amplitude was observed in mice exposed to repeated phase shifts. To assess the metabolic consequences of such peripheral amplitude depression in isolation, temporally chimeric mice lacking a functional central clock (Vgat-Cre+ Bmal1fl/fl) were housed in the absence of environmental rhythmicity. In vivo PER2::LUC bioluminescence imaging of anesthetized and freely moving mice revealed that this resulted in a state of peripheral amplitude depression, similar in severity to that observed transiently following an advance of the light-dark cycle. Surprisingly, our mice did not show alterations in body mass or glucose tolerance in males or females on regular or high-fat diets. Overall, our results identify transient damping of peripheral rhythm amplitude as a consequence of exposure to an advanced light-dark cycle but chronic damping of peripheral clocks in isolation is insufficient to induce adverse metabolic outcomes in mice

Suprachiasmatic Nucleus Neurons Are Glucose Sensitive

The suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) in the hypothalamus serves as the pacemaker for mammalian circadian rhythms. In a hamster brain slice preparation, the authors were able to record spontaneous activity from SCN cells for up to 4 days in vitro and verify a self-sustained rhythm in firing. The phase of this rhythm was altered by the concentration of glucose in the bathing medium, with time of peak firing advanced for a 20 mM glucose condition and slightly delayed for a 5 mM glucose condition, relative to 10 mM. The advancing effect of 20 mM glucose and the delaying effect of 5 mM glucose were not maintained during a 2nd day in vitro after changing the bathing medium back to 10 mM glucose, thus indicating the effect was not a permanent phase shift of the underlying oscillation. In experiments recording from cell-attached membrane patches on acutely dissociated hamster SCN neurons, exchanging the bathing medium from high (20 mM) to zero glucose increased potassium (K+)-selective channel activity. With inside-out membrane patches, the authors revealed the presence of a glybenclamide-sensitive K+ channel (190 pS) and a larger conductance (260 pS) Ca2+- dependent K+ channel that were both reversibly inhibited by ATP at the cytoplasmic surface. Furthermore, 1 mM tetraethylammonium chloride was demonstrated to advance peak firing time in the brain slice in a similar manner to a high concentration of glucose (20 mM). The authors interpret the results to imply that SCNs are sensitive to glucose, most probably via ATP modulation of K+ channel activity in these neurons. Tonic modulation of K+ channel activity appears to alter output of the pacemaker but does not reset the phase

Remote sensing of life: Polarimetric signatures of photosynthetic pigments as sensitive biomarkers

We develop a polarimetry-based remote-sensing method for detecting and identifying life forms in distant worlds and distinguishing them from non-biological species. To achieve this we have designed and built a bio-polarimetric laboratory experiment BioPol for measuring optical polarized spectra of various biological and non-biological samples. Here we focus on biological pigments, which are common in plants and bacteria that employ them either for photosynthesis or for protection against reactive oxygen species. Photosynthesis, which provides organisms with the ability to use light as a source of energy, emerged early in the evolution of life on Earth. The ability to harvest such a significant energy resource could likely also develop on habited exoplanets. Thus, we investigate the detectability of biomolecules that can capture photons of particular wavelengths and contribute to storing their energy in chemical bonds. We have carried out laboratory spectropolarimetric measurements of a representative sample of plants containing various amounts of pigments such as chlorophyll, carotenoids and others. We have also measured a variety of non-biological samples (sands, rocks). Using our lab measurements, we have modelled intensity and polarized spectra of Earth-like planets having different surface coverage by photosynthetic organisms, deserted land and ocean, as well as clouds. Our results demonstrate that linearly polarized spectra provide very sensitive and rather unambiguous detection of photosynthetic pigments of various kinds. Our work paves the path towards analogous measurements of microorganisms and remote sensing of microbial ecology on the Earth and of extraterrestrial life on other planets and moons