One future or many? November 14, 15, and 16, 2002

This repository item contains a single issue of the Pardee Conference Series, a publication series that began publishing in 2006 by the Boston University Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future. This was the Center's 2nd annual Conference that took place during November 14, 15, and 16, 2002.The conference brought together some 30 experts from various disciplines to discuss whether the trajectories of the future will be ‘global’ or ‘regional’ in nature. Different panels looks at the future trajectories for Europe, the Western Hemisphere, Central Asia and the Former Soviet Union, and on Asia and in each case the discussion looked at the relative importance of the regional and of global dynamics on teh forces shaping the future of these regions.Carnegie Council on Ethics and International Affair

Return of the Twin Deficits: Consequences for the Dollar and the Economy

Does America’s return to “twin deficits” imply an unstable dollar or a return to the “declinism” of the 1980s? Ending the Cold War and establishing the Euro did leave the dollar in a fundamentally weaker position. The Clinton administration, however, eliminated the fiscal deficit. And although the large external deficit continued to increase, it was financed to a great extent by foreign direct investment that strengthened the real economy. Since the dot.com crash, however, the dollar has depended on more official and less stable forms of support – mostly portfolio investments from Japanese and Chinese central banks. In the longer term, given the difficulties of adjusting Western living standards to Asian competition, a global system of floating currency blocs seems probable. The U.S. is unlikely to maintain its dominant position by converting the “war on terror” into a geopolitical alliance comparable to the Cold War

Obama’s Foreign Policy: Is this change we can believe in? ESF Working Paper No. 32, 4 August 2009

President Obama made the strategic choice of distancing himself unequivocally from his predecessor on the international scene. The task ahead is to convince the rest of the world, including the most hostile countries, to share his vision of international affairs and forge ahead with a new foreign policy. This new ESF Working Paper follows the 32nd ESF Forum, chaired by François Heisbourg at CEPS, June 2009, under the title: Obama’s Foreign Policy: Is this change we can believe in? Four experts: David Calleo, of the John Hopkins University, Washington, Camille Grand, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, Paris, Shen Dingli, Fudan University, Shanghai and Ivan Safranchuk, State Institute of International Relations, Moscow, consider President Obama’s chances of foreign policy success

L'Europe vue par les Etats-Unis

What Does Europe Mean to America?, by David P. Calleo No one can predict with much assurance the future course of global economie development. But the United States and Europe do share a profound common geopolitical interest in a strong Europe and an orderly libéral world. Whether these common interests prevail over other conflicts of interest that seem inevitable depends in part at least on whether the old transatlantic affinities remain as vivid for future generations as for the generation of Roosevelt, Kennan, Acheson and Dulles. Nowadays, that probably depends more heavily than ever upon elite education and contact. Continuing geopolitical affinity, moreover, probably has certain preconditions. As Kennan argued long ago, it will probably depend on the European's regaining their self-confidence, and making themselves a serious force in the world. Americans, meanwhile, wïll have to strike a new balance between global role and domestic sanity.Nul ne peut prédire avec certitude les orientations futures du développement économique mondial. Toutefois, les Etats-Unis et l'Europe ont un intérêt géopolitique commun pour une Europe forte et un monde raisonnablement libéral. Reste à savoir si ces intérêts communs prévaudront contre les conflits d'intérêt qui semblent inévitables. Pour cela, il faudra, du moins en partie, que les vieilles affinités transatlantiques soient aussi vivaces pour les généra- tions futures que pour la génération Roosevelt, Kennan, Acheson et Dulles. Aujourd' hui, cela dépend sans doute plus que jamais de l'éducation des élites et des contacts qu'elles noueront. Qui plus est, certaines conditions doivent être réunies pour préserver les affinités géopolitiques. Comme l'affirmait George Kennan, il y a longtemps, les Européens devront recouvrer leur confiance en soi et devenir une véritable force dans le monde. Les Américains devront, eux, s'efforcer d'établir un nouvel équilibre entre leur rôle dans le monde et sur le plan intérieur.Calleo, Neal Mercedes. L'Europe vue par les Etats-Unis. In: Politique étrangère, n°4 - 1994 - 59ᵉannée. pp. 1017-1025