Observing Human Mobility Internationally During COVID-19

This article analyzes visual data captured from five countries and three U.S. states to evaluate the effectiveness of lockdown policies for reducing the spread of COVID-19. The main challenge is the scale: nearly six million images are analyzed to observe how people respond to the policy changes

Estimation of latent Gaussian ARMA models for categorical behaviour data

We consider the fitting of latent Gaussian models to categorical time series of cow feeding data. We derive a spectral quasi-likelihood for the data, and compare it with least squares fits to autocorrelations and MCMC estimators of the parameters in thresholded ARMA processes. We show that the spectral method is more efficient than least squares and far faster than MCMC

A latent Gaussian Markov random-field model for spatiotemporal rainfall disaggregation

Rainfall data are often collected at coarser spatial scales than required for input into hydrology and agricultural models. We therefore describe a spatiotemporal model which allows multiple imputation of rainfall at fine spatial resolutions, with a realistic dependence structure in both space and time and with the total rainfall at the coarse scale consistent with that observed. The method involves the transformation of the fine scale rainfall to a thresholded Gaussian process which we model as a Gaussian Markov random field. Gibbs sampling is then used to generate realizations of rainfall efficiently at the fine scale. Results compare favourably with previous, less elegant methods. Copyright 2003 Royal Statistical Society.

Clustering of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in Rabbits and the Environment: How Hot Is a Hot Spot?

Clustering of pathogens in the environment leads to hot spots of diseases at local, regional, national, and international levels. Scotland contains regional hot spots of Johne's disease (caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis) in rabbits, and there is increasing evidence of a link between paratuberculosis infections in rabbits and cattle. The spatial and temporal dynamics of paratuberculosis in rabbits within a hot spot region were studied with the overall aim of determining environmental patterns of infection and thus the risk of interspecies transmission to livestock. The specific aims were to determine if prevalence of paratuberculosis in rabbits varies temporally between seasons and whether the heterogeneous spatial environmental distribution of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis on a large scale (i.e., regional hot spots) is replicated at finer resolutions within a hot spot. The overall prevalence of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis in rabbits was 39.7%; the temporal distribution of infection in rabbits followed a cyclical pattern, with a peak in spring of 55.4% and a low in summer of 19.4%. Spatially, M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis-infected rabbits and, thus, the risk of interspecies transmission were highly clustered in the environment. However, this is mostly due to the clustered distribution of rabbits. The patterns of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection in rabbits are discussed in relation to the host's socioecology and risk to livestock

Elements of effective palliative care interventions in advanced heart failure: A narrative review

Abstract People with advanced heart failure experience significant biopsychosocial needs and have a poor prognosis. International guidelines have called for integrating palliative care in heart failure management. This review explores the elements of effective palliative care interventions in advanced heart failure. PubMed, Embase, CINAHL and Cochrane Reviews were searched following an a priori review protocol for clinical trials of advanced heart failure and palliative care. The risk of bias was assessed using Risk of Bias 2 (RoB2). A qualitative, emergent approach was used to synthesize context + mechanism = outcome. Twenty‐one papers from 18 studies were the data source. The efficacy of palliative care in advanced heart failure was mixed. Five studies reported significant improvement in health outcomes compared with the usual care control group. Timing may be necessary in accounting for improvement in quality of life (occurring on or about 3 months) and functional and symptomatic improvements (occurring on or about 6 months or longer). Effective models of secondary palliative care in advanced heart failure include interdisciplinary teams comprising primary care, cardiology and palliative care, routine check‐ins, personalized care plans that explore goals, evidence‐based symptom management and counselling. Integrating palliative care with heart failure management could improve patient outcomes. Future research and policy development may wish to consider when, how and what palliative care modalities are to be incorporated into the care of patients with advanced heart failure