Detrending Time-Aggregated Data

This paper examines the combined influences of detrending and time aggregation on the measurement of business cycles. The approximate band- pass filter of Baxter and King (1999) performs relatively well in the sense that it retains the basic shape of disaggregate spectra and cospectra when applied to time aggregated data and is straightforward to apply across sampling intervals. Analysis of known time series processes and actual U.S. macro data, as well as simulation of a standard high- frequency RBC model, confirm the theoretical results.detrending aliasing temporal aggregation filters

Cattle Cycles, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Age Distribution of Capital

This paper builds a dynamic forward-looking model describing the approximate ten-year cattle cycle. The theoretical model improves on existing models by (1) keeping track of the age distribution of the capital stock, (2) allowing for heterogeneous expectations, and (3) recognizing that cow-calf operators make investment decisions on both the cow and calf margins. The model is then calibrated and used to simulate artificial data that endogenously generates ten-year cycles in the total stock of cattle.

Equity Basis Selection in Allocation Environments: An Empirical Analysis

Successful formation and long-term stability of cooperative ventures is often linked to the perceived fairness of the cost and resource allocations that these ventures employ. Indeed, the lack of a consensus over what basis should be used for gauging equitable allocation can undermine the prospects for collaboration. We use irrigation cost sharing as a context for examining the equity basis selections of cooperative ventures that successfully form and endure. Our analysis reveals that these selections are explained by features of the cooperative environment and inequities in the derived benefits from the irrigation water.irrigation, cost allocation, equity, probit model, Risk and Uncertainty,

Equity Basis Selection in Allocation Environments

The successful formation and long-term stability of a cooperative venture is often linked to the perceived fairness of the associated cost or resource allocation. In particular, the effectiveness of such collaborations can be hampered by the lack of a consensus view on what basis should be used for gauging an allocation’s “fairness.” Standards of equity in traditional cost-sharing applications could be assessed on many dimensions: per capita, per unit of demand, or per unit of revenue, to mention a few. This multiplicity of logically compelling “equity bases” is a feature common to many practical cost-sharing applications. Our analysis shows that features of the allocation environment are capable of explaining a substantial amount of the variation in the equity bases employed in practice and are consistent with the axiomatic principles of collective behavior.cooperative games; cost allocation; equity; probit model

Short-term planning and the life-cycle consumption puzzle

This paper provides a new explanation for the hump-shaped age- consumption profile observed in household data. Standard life-cycle models are based on an optimization problem that spans the entire life expectancy. Alternatively, we examine the consumption profile of an individual with a shorter planning horizon. The actual consumption profile is the envelope of a continuum of control problems because the agent’s short-term planning horizon continually slides along the time- scale, and the agent is therefore continually re-optimizing. We derive analytical solutions to a deterministic, continuous-time control model with this characteristic and we show that hump-shaped consumption is a feature of the model.Short-term planning, Hump-shaped consumption

Market Power with Dynamic Inventory Constraints: The Bias in Standard Measures

This paper incorporates inventory dynamics into an analysis of market power. Using a model in which each firm accounts for the effect of its current action on the current and future actions of itself and its competitors, we show that measures of market power that ignore inventory dynamics are biased. We then apply the model to the beef-packing industry using annual data on cattle stocks, slaughter and prices from 1933-1999. Our estimates suggest that static measures overestimate the amount of market power exerted by beef-packing firms.market power dynamic cattle conjectural variations stock

Mountain-pine beetle outbreaks and shifting social preferences for ecosystem services

Conventional wisdom appears to implicate climate change as the root cause of the unprecedented mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak currently underway in the western United States. While climate change is undoubtedly a factor, historic changes in public forest management have resulted in greater numbers of large-diameter host trees in MPB habitat. We present a model that integrates standard economic and ecological principles in an attempt to clarify the roles of climate change and public forest management in the current MPB outbreak. Using data on timber sales, climate change and MPB populations, model simulations illustrate how an increased emphasis on non-timber ecosystem services induced a regime shift from climate-independent to climate-dependent disturbance processes, amplifying the current MPB outbreak.mountain pine beetle; climate change; forests

Consistent High-Frequency Calibration

Economic models are meant to provide a framework to describe real-world economic activities. In principle, how well a model performs this task can be evaluated by how close the model's simulated activities track the observed ones. A necessary first step in simulating a model is to choose values for the model's parameters in accordance with actual economic data. A fundamental problem in economic modelling, however, is that actual economic data are sampled at time intervals that are typically longer than the decision intervals of actual economic agents. One popular resolution of this problem is to constrain the length of the decision intervals of theoretical economic agents to be equal to the length of the actual data-sampling intervals. This widely adopted approach makes it feasible to directly calibrate theoretical models to the observed data, but it can introduce substantial biases in the models' empirical performance, as demonstrated by recent research that has allowed the decision intervals to be shorter than the data-sampling intervals. This alternative, high-frequency modelling approach, however, has brought with itself a fundamental issue that direct calibration of the models' parameters is no longer feasible. In response, researchers have employed a simple, yet ad hoc, rule to transform commonly chosen lower-frequency parameter values (which can be calibrated directly from the available data) to their high-frequency counterparts. We show in this paper that this simple transformation rule has three major drawbacks. First, it produces internal inconsistencies in steady- state equilibrium conditions. Second, it is sometimes at odds with microeconomic evidence. And third, it can result in inaccurate log- linear approximations to the models' true equilibrium solutions by worsening the fit of both the transition dynamic coefficients and the point of approximation itself. We present here an alternative, coherent transformation rule for calibrating high-frequency models that directly addresses these three shortcomings. We then use our consistent transformation rule to calibrate high-frequency versions of two well- known economic models and show how it improves these models' empirical performance.calibration temporal aggregation

Curbside Recycling: Waste Resource or Waste of Resources?

In this paper, we estimate the social net benefits of curbside recycling. Benefits are estimated using survey data on household willingness to pay (WTP) from over 4,000 households across 40 western U.S. cities. We calibrate WTP for hypothetical bias using an experimental design that contrasts stated and revealed preferences. Cost estimates are compiled from previous studies by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the Institute for Local Self Reliance, as well as from in-depth interviews with recycling coordinators in our sampled cities. Remarkably, we find that the estimated mean social net benefit of curbside recycling is almost exactly zero. Therefore, the decision of whether to implement or maintain a curbside recycling program (CRP) must be done on a city-by-city basis.curbside recycling, willingness to pay, social net benefits, hypothetical bias, calibration

CURBSIDE RECYCLING: WASTE RESOURCE OR WASTE OF RESOURCES?

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/28/04.Environmental Economics and Policy, Public Economics,