Adopting Hierarchial Cluster Analysis to Improve The Performance of K-mean Algorithm

Due to inadequate flood data it is not always possible to fit a frequency analysis to at-site stations. Reliable results are not always guaranteed by a single clustering algorithm, so a combination of methods may be used. In this research, we considered three clustering algorithms: single linkge, complete linkage and Ward (as hierarchial clustering methods), and K-mean (as partitional clustering analysis). Hybrid cluster analysis was tested for up-to-dated of floods data in 68 hydrometric stations in East and NE of Iran. Four cluster validity indices were used to find the optimum number of clusters. Based on the Cophenetic coefficient and average Silhouette width, single linkge, and complete linkage methods were performed well, yet they produced non-consistent clusters (one large and numerous small clusters) which are not amenable for flood frequency analysis. It was shown that hybridization was efficient to form homogeneous regions, however, the usefulness was dependent to the number of classes. Heterogeneity measure of Hosking was negative, due to inter-correlation of floods in the clusters. The hybrid of Ward and K-mean was shown to be the best combination for the region under study. Four homogeneous regions were delineated

Investigation of Suitable Regions Determination for Drought Monitoring Using TRMM Satellite Data (Case Study: Khorasan Razavi Province)

Most of drought evaluation systems are based on precipitation data. However short period of measured data and inappropriate distribution of weather stations and undesirable quality of precipitation measurement networks reduce ability of showing the spatial pattern of drought. Therefore, it is necessary to recognize others reliable climatic data resources. Then to overpass the difficulty, after verification, the data is used to complete or substitute the existing data. Accordingly, in this research to monitor drought in Khorasan Razavi province using data from 10 synoptic stations and 107 rain gauges around the province, the monthly data of TRMM satellite was validated. To do this, standardized precipitation index (SPI) of 1, 3, 6 and 12 months are calculated for a 13 years period (1998-2010) and compared with those of satellite for the same period. The evaluation was measured using CSI (%) (Critical Success Index) and R2 (Coefficient of Determination). The results showed that there was a very good consistency between earth borne and satellite borne SPIs for all time scales except for 1 month time scale. Consistency value for all time scales over most regions of the province is more than 50%. Based on the results, for achieving the accuracy more than 60%, time scales of 1, 3, 6 and 12 months should be used as below: 1 month only for the northern regions, 3 month for all regions except the eastern part, 6 month for all regions except the northern part and 12 month for all regions except the northern region and central part of the province

Soil Moisture Estimation Using MODIS Images (Case Study: Mashhad Plain Area)

Introduction: Numerous studies have been undertaken based on satellite imagery in order to estimate soil moisture using vegetation indices such as NDVI. Previous studies suffer from a restriction; these indices are not able to estimate where the vegetative coverage is low or where no vegetation exists. Hence, it is essential to develop a model which can overcome this restriction. Focus of this research is on estimation of soil moisture for low or scattered vegetative land covers. Trapezoidal temperature-vegetation (Ts~VI) model is able to consider the status of soil moisture and vegetation condition. It can estimate plant water deficit for weak or no vegetation land cover. Materials and Methods: Moran proposed Water Deficit Index (WDI) for evaluating field evapotranspiration rates and relative field water deficit for both full-cover and partially vegetated sites. The theoretical basis of this method is based on the energy balance equation. Penman-Monteith equation of energy balance was used to calculate the coordinates of the four vertices of the temperature-vegetation trapezoid also for four different extreme combinations of temperature and vegetation. For the (Ts−Ta)~Vc trapezoid, four vertices correspond to 1) well-watered full-cover vegetation, 2) water-stressed full-cover vegetation, 3) saturated bare soil, and 4) dry bare soil. WDI is equal to 0 for well-watered conditions and equals to 1 for maximum stress conditions. As suggested by Moran et al. to draw a trapezoidal shape, some field measurements are required such as wind speed at the height of 2 meters, air pressure, mean daily temperature, vapor pressure-temperature curve slope, Psychrometrics constant, vapor pressure at mean temperature, vapor pressure deficit, external radiation, solar radiation of short wavelength, longwave radiation, net radiation, soil heat flux and air aerodynamic resistance is included. Crop vegetation and canopy resistance should be measured or estimated. The study area is selected in the Mashhad plain in Khorasan Razavi province of I.R. Iran. Study area is about 1,200 square kilometers and is located around the Golmakan center of agricultural research. In this study, water deficit index (WDI) was zoning by MODIS images in subset of Mashhad plain during water year of 2011-2012. Then, based on the close relationship between WDI and soil moisture parameter, a linear relationship between these two parameters were fitted. Soil moisture is measured by the TDR and every 7 days at 5 depths of 5, 10, 20, 30 and 50 cm from the surface. Remote Sensing (RS) technology used as a tool for providing some of the data that is required. The moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument is popular for monitoring soil moisture because of its high spectral (36 bands) resolution, moderate spatial (250–1000 m) resolution and various products for land surface properties. MODIS products used in the present study include: MOD09A1 land surface albedo data, MOD11A1 land surface temperature data, and MOD13A1 vegetation data. Using ArcMap 9.2 and ERDAS IMAGINE 2010 softwares, WDI was calculated pixel by pixel for 18 days (non-cloudy days and simultaneous with measurement of soil moisture at the station). Results and Discussion: The results showed that the northeastern region is predominantly rainfed and irrigated farmlands are under water stress. Conversely, the southwestern part of the area is mountainous with less water stress. Based on NDVI, there is also less crop cover in the southwestern part of the region during the year. The results showed that about 44% of the index values are in the range of 0.2-0.3. Then about 22% of the index values are in the range of 0.3-0.4. Thus it can be concluded that over 66% of the index values are in the range of 0.2-0.4. According to the maximum index value (WDI=0.59 on the 201th day of year) and the minimum values (WDI=0.0004 on the 129th day of year) during the time period of study, it seems that water stress in the study area in the six-month period of observation is moderate. To validate the results, changes in precipitation, relative humidity and WDI values were compared. As expected, after the occurrence of any significant rainfall, water stress is decreased and decreasing in relative humidity, coincided with increase in water stress. In the next step, the linear relationship between measured values of soil moisture and WDI values were fitted in 2 depth of 5 and 10 cm. It should be noted that the average values of WDI of four pixels surrounding the Golmakan station was used in calculation of the regression coefficients Similar research has shown that Ts~VI trapezoid based WDI can accurately capture temporal variation in surface soil moisture, but the capability of detecting spatial variation is poor for such a semi-arid region like Mashhad. The high correlation coefficient (93%) obtained from soil moisture (5 cm) and WDI regression showed the good mutual impacts of these two parameters on each other. The correlation coefficient between WDI index and soil moisture at a depth of 10 cm was equal to 83%. Reducing the value of the correlation coefficient was probably due to the delay in transferring the soil moisture changes to underlying depth. Conclusion: The similarity of the mean values of rainfall and relative humidity of the air showed good compliance with the WDI. Good correlation coefficient (93%) between WDI and soil moisture (measured at depth of 5cm in the station) certifies the accuracy of the results obtained from WDI. The results showed that Ts~VI trapezoid based WDI can well capture temporal variation in surface soil moisture, while in this study, spatial zoning was avoided because of the lack of soil moisture data within the study area

Validation of AquaCrop Model for Simulation of Winter Wheat Yield and Water Use Efficiency under Simultaneous Salinity and Water Stress

Introduction: FAO AquaCrop model (Raes et al., 2009a; Steduto et al., 2009) is a user-friendly and practitioner oriented type of model, because it maintains an optimal balance between accuracy, robustness, and simplicity; and it requires a relatively small number of model input parameters. The FAO AquaCrop model predicts crop productivity, water requirement, and water use efficiency under water-limiting and saline water conditions. This model has been tested and validated for different crops such as maize, sunflower and wheat (T. aestivum L.) under diverse environments. In most of arid and semi-arid regions water shortage is associated with reduction in water quality (i.e. increasing salinity). Plants in these regions in terms of water quality and quantity may be affected by simultaneous salinity and water stress. Therefore, in this study, the AquaCrop model was evaluated under simultaneous salinity and water stress. In this study, AquaCrop Model (v4.0) was used. This version was developed in 2012 to quantify the effects of salinity. Therefore, the objectives of this study were: i) evaluation of AquaCrop model (v4.0) to simulate wheat yield and water use efficiency under simultaneous salinity and water stress conditions in an arid region of Birjand, Iran and ii) Using different treatments for nested calibration and validation of AquaCrop model. Materials and Methods: This study was carried out as split plot design (factorial form) in Birjand, east of Iran, in order to evaluate the AquaCrop model.Treatments consisted of three levels of irrigation water salinity (S1, S2, S3 corresponding to 1.4, 4.5, 9.6 dS m-1) as main plot, two wheat varieties (Ghods and Roshan), and four levels of irrigation water amount (I1, I2, I3, I4 corresponding to 125, 100, 75, 50% water requirement) as sub plot. First, AquaCrop model was run with the corresponding data of S1 treatments (for all I1, I2, I3, and I4) and the results (wheat grain yield, average of soil water content, and ECe) were considered as the “basic outputs”. After that and in the next runs of the model, in each step, one of the inputs was changed while the other inputs were kept constant. The interval of variation of the inputs was chosen from -25 to +25% of its median value. After changing the values of input parameters, the model outputs were compared with the “basic outputs” using the sensitivity coefficient (Sc) of McCuen, (1973). Since there are four irrigation treatments for each salinity treatment, the model was calibrated using two irrigation treatments for each salinity treatment and validated using the other two irrigation treatments. In fact, six different cases of calibration and validation for each salinity treatment were [(I3 and I4), (I2 and I4), (I1 and I4), (I2 and I3), (I1 and I3), and (I1 and I2) for calibration and (I1 and I2), (I1 and I3), (I2 and I3), (I1 and I4), (I2 and I4), and (I3 and I4) for validation, respectively]. The model was calibrated by changing the coefficients of water stress (i.e. stomata conductance threshold (p-upper) stomata stress coefficient curve shape, senescence stress coefficient (p-upper), and senescence stress coefficient curve shape) for six different cases. Therefore, the average relative error of the measured and simulated grain yield was minimized for each case of calibration. After calibrating the model for each salinity treatment, the model was simultaneously calibrated using six different cases for three salinity treatments as a whole. Results and Discussion: Results showed that the sensitivity of the model to crop coefficient for transpiration (KcTr), normalized water productivity (WP*), reference harvest index (HIo), θFC, θsat, and maximum temperature was moderate. The average value of NRMSE, CRM, d, and R2 for soil water content were 11.76, 0.055, 0.79, and 0.61, respectively and for soil salinity were 24.4, 0.195, 0.72, and 0.57, respectively. The model accuracy for simulation of soil water content was more than for simulation of soil salinity. In general, the model accuracy for simulation yield and WP was better than simulation of biomass. The d (index of agreement) values were very close to one for both varieties, which means that simulated reduction in grain yield and biomass was similar to those of measured ones. In most cases the R2 values were about one, confirming a good correlation between simulated and measured values. The NRMSE values in most cases were lower than 10% which seems to be good. The CRM values were close to zero (under- and over-estimation were negligible). Based on higher WP under deficit irrigation treatments (e.g. I3) compared to full irrigation treatments (e.g. I1 and I2), it seems logical to adopt I3 treatment, especially in Birjand as a water-short region, assigning the remaining 25% to another piece of land. By such strategy, WP would be optimized at the regional scale. Conclusion: The AquaCrop was separately and simultaneously nested calibrated and validated for all salinity treatments. The model accuracy under simultaneous case was slightly lower than that for separate case. According to the results, if the model is well calibrated for minimum and maximum irrigation treatments (full irrigation and maximum deficit irrigation), it could simulate grain yield for any other irrigation treatment in between these two limits. Adopting this approach may reduce the cost of field studies for calibrating the model, since only two irrigation treatments should be conducted in the field. AquaCrop model can be a valuable tool for modelling winter wheat grain yield, WP and biomass. The simplicity of AquaCrop, as it is less data dependent, made it to be user-friendly. Nevertheless, the performance of the model has to be evaluated, validated and fine-tuned under a wider range of conditions and crops. Keywords: Biomass, Plant modeling, Sensitivity analysi

Estimating Soil Water Retention Curve Using The Particle Size Distribution Based on Fractal Approach

Introduction: Water and soil retention curve is one of the most important properties of porous media to obtain in a laboratory retention curve and time associated with errors. For this reason, researchers have proposed techniques that help them to more easily acquired characteristic curve. One of these methods is the use of fractal geometry. Determining the relationship between particle size distribution fractal dimension (DPSD) and fractal dimension retention curve (DSWRC) can be useful. However, the full information of many soil data is not available from the grading curve and only three components (clay, silt and sand) are measured.In recent decades, the use of fractal geometry as a useful tool and a bridge between the physical concept models and experimental parameters have been used.Due to the fact that both the solid phase of soil and soil pore space themselves are relatively similar, each of them can express different fractal characteristics of the soil . Materials and Methods: This study aims to determine DPSD using data soon found in the soil and creates a relationship between DPSD and DSWRC .To do this selection, 54 samples from Northern Iran and the six classes loam, clay loam, clay loam, sandy clay, silty loam and sandy loam were classified. To get the fractal dimension (DSWRC) Tyler and Wheatcraft (27) retention curve equation was used.Alsothe fractal dimension particle size distribution (DPSD) using equation Tyler and Wheatcraft (28) is obtained.To determine the grading curve in the range of 1 to 1000 micron particle radius of the percentage amounts of clay, silt and sand soil, the method by Skaggs et al (24) using the following equation was used. DPSD developed using gradation curves (Dm1) and three points (sand, silt and clay) (Dm2), respectively. After determining the fractal dimension and fractal dimension retention curve gradation curve, regression relationship between fractal dimension is created. Results and Discussion: The results showed that the fractal dimension of particle size distributions obtained with both methods were not significantly different from each other. DSWRCwas also using the suction-moisture . The results indicate that all three fractal dimensions related to soil texture and clay content of the soil increases. Linear regression relationships between Dm1 and Dm2 with DSWRC was created using 48 soil samples in order to determine the coefficient of 0.902 and 0.871 . Then, based on relationships obtained from the four methods (1- Dm1 = DSWRC, 2-regression equationswere obtained Dm1, 3- Dm2 = DSWRC and 4. The regression equation obtained Dm2. DSWRC expression was used to express DSWRC. Various models for the determination of soil moisture suction according to statistical indicators normalized root mean square error, mean error, relative error.And mean geometric modeling efficiency was evaluated. The results of all four fractalsare close to each other and in most soils it is consistent with the measured data. Models predict the ability to work well in sandy loam soil fractal models and the predicted measured moisture value is less than the estimated fractal dimension- less than its actual value is the moisture curve. Conclusions: In this study, the work of Skaggs et al. (24) was used and it was amended by Fooladmand and Sepaskhah (8) grading curve using the percentage of developed sand, silt and clay . The fractal dimension of the particle size distribution was obtained.The fractal dimension particle size of the radius of the particle size of sand, silt and clay were used, respectively.In general, the study of fractals to simulate the effectiveness of retention curve proved successful. And soon it was found that the use of data, such as sand, silt and clay retention curve can be estimated with reasonable accuracy

Simulation of Rainfed Wheat Yield using AquaCrop Model, Case Study: Sisab Rainfed Researches Station, Northern Khorasan

Modeling of crop growth plays an important role in evaluation of drought impacts on rainfed yield, choosing an optimum sowing date, and managerial decision-makings. Aquacrop model is a new crop model that developed by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), that is a model for simulation of crop yield based on “yield response to water“ with meteorological, crop, soli and management practices data as inputs. This model has to be calibrated and validated for each crop species and each location. In this paper, the Aquacrop has been calibrated and evaluated for rainfed wheat in Sisab station (Northern Khorasan). For this purpose, daily meteorological data and historical yield data from two cropping season (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) in the Sisab station have been used to calibrate this model. Next, meteorological data and historical yield data of five cropping season (2002-2003 to 2006-2007) are used to validate the model. The result shows that the Aqucrop can accurately predict crop yield as R2, RMSE, NRMSE, ME, and D-Index are achieved 0.86, 0.062, 5.235, 0.917 and 0.877, respectively

Uncertainty Analysis in Prediction of Soil Water Balance Components in two Irrigated Field in Arid Region

Uncertainty analysis is a useful tool to evaluate soil water simulations in order to get more information about the models output. These information provide more confidence for decision making processes. In this study, SWAP model is applied for soil water balance simulations in two fields which are planted by wheat and maize in an arid region. First the amount of uncertainty is estimated and compared for soil moisture simulation by using Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) in the two fields. Then based on the computed parameter uncertainty, the effect of uncertainty in soil moisture simulation is evaluated on soil water balance components. Results indicated that in arid regions with irrigated agricultural fields, prediction of actual evapotranspiration is relatively precise and the coefficient of variation for the two fields are less than 4%. Moreover, the prediction of deep percolation for the two fields are influenced by the uncertain hydraulic conductivity and showed lower precision according to the actual evapotranspiration

Enhancing flood hazard estimation methods on alluvial fans using an integrated hydraulic, geological and geomorphological approach

Due to the uncertainty concerning the location of flow paths on active alluvial fans, alluvial fan floods could be more dangerous than riverine floods. The United States Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) used a simple stochastic model named FAN for this purpose, which has been practiced for many years. In the last decade, this model has been criticized as a consequence of development of more complex computer models. This study was conducted on three alluvial fans located in northeast and southeast Iran using a combination of the FAN model, the hydraulic portion of the FLO-2D model, and geomorphological information. Initial stages included three steps: (a) identifying the alluvial fans' landforms, (b) determining the active and inactive areas of alluvial fans, and (c) delineating 100-year flood within these selected areas. This information was used as an input in the mentioned three approaches of the (i) FLO-2D model, (ii) geomorphological method, and (iii) FAN model. Thereafter, the results of each model were obtained and geographical information system (GIS) layers were created and overlaid. Afterwards, using a scoring system, the results were evaluated and compared. The goal of this research was to introduce a simple but effective solution to estimate the flood hazards. It was concluded that the integrated method proposed in this study is superior at projecting alluvial fan flood hazards with minimum required input data, simplicity, and affordability, which are considered the primary goals of such comprehensive studies. These advantages are more highlighted in underdeveloped and developing countries, which may well lack detailed data and financially cannot support such costly projects. Furthermore, such a highly cost-effective method could be greatly advantageous and pragmatic for developed countries

Invariant Solutions of Richards' Equation for Water Movement in Dissimilar Soils

Scaling methods allow a single solution to Richards' equation (RE) to suffice for numerous specific cases of water flow in unsaturated soils. During the past half-century, many such methods were developed for similar soils. In this paper, a new method is proposed for scaling RE for a wide range of dissimilar soils. Exponential-power (EP) functions are used to reduce the dependence of the scaled RE on the soil hydraulic properties. To evaluate the proposed method, the scaled RE was solved numerically considering two test cases: infiltration into relatively dry soils having initially uniform water content distributions, and gravity-dominant drainage occurring from initially wet soil profiles. Although the results for four texturally different soils ranging from sand to heavy clay (adopted from the UNSODA database) showed that the scaled solution were invariant for a wide range of flow conditions, slight deviations were observed when the soil profile was initially wet in the infiltration case or deeply wet in the drainage case. The invariance of the scaled RE makes it possible to generalize a single solution of RE to many dissimilar soils and conditions. Such a procedure reduces the numerical calculations and provides additional opportunities for solving the highly nonlinear RE for unsaturated water flow in soils

Daily soil temperature modeling using ‘panel-data’ concept

<p>The purpose of this research was to predict soil temperature profile using ‘panel-data’ models. Panel-data analysis endows regression analysis with both spatial and temporal dimensions. The spatial dimension pertains to a set of cross-sectional units of observation. The temporal dimension pertains to periodic observations of a set of variables characterizing these cross-sectional units over a particular time-span. This study was conducted in <i>Khorasan-Razavi</i> Province, Iran. Daily mean soil temperatures for 9 years (2001–2009), in 6 different depths (5, 10, 20, 30, 50 and 100 cm) under bare soil surface at 10 meteorological stations were used. The data were divided into two sub-sets for training (parameter training) over the period of 2001–2008, and validation over the period of the year 2009. The panel-data models were developed using the average air temperature and rainfall of the day before (<math><mrow><msub><mi>T</mi><mrow><mi>d</mi><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub></mrow></math> and <math><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mi>t</mi><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub></mrow></math>, respectively) and the average air temperature of the past 7 days (<i>T</i>_w) as inputs in order to predict the average soil temperature of the next day. The results showed that the two-way fixed effects models were superior. The performance indicators (<i>R</i>² <i>=</i> 0.94 to 0.99, RMSE = 0.46 to 1.29 and MBE = −0.83 and 0.74) revealed the effectiveness of this model. In addition, these results were compared with the results of classic linear regression models using <i>t</i>-test, which showed the superiority of the panel-data models.</p