Modelled global potential distribution of <i>Eichhornia crassipes</i> using climate scenarios for 2080 under the A2 and A1B SRES emissions scenarios.

<p>The global climate models are indicated next to the maps.</p

The world, showing the climate suitability for the oat aphid <i>Rhopalosiphum padi</i> estimated using a CLIMEX model.

<p>The model was parameterised for the asexual mode of reproduction and shows; (a), the Ecoclimatic Index, indicating the potential distribution of sexual populations (potential for year round persistence EI>0); and (b), the annual Growth Index GI_A indicating areas that are suitable for growth at some point during the year (GI_A>0). This model does not include data about the presence of a suitable primary host plant.</p

Proportion of total cropping area in Australia that is at risk of persistent year round populations of <i>Rhopalosiphum padi</i> or seasonally transient populations.

<p>Data generated by a CLIMEX model illustrating the asexual mode of reproduction in this species under natural rainfall conditions and incorporating an irrigation scenario.</p

The world, showing the climate suitability for the oat aphid <i>Rhopalosiphum padi</i> estimated using a CLIMEX model.

<p>The model was parameterised for the sexual mode of reproduction and shows; (a), the Ecoclimatic Index, indicating the potential distribution of sexual populations (potential for year round persistence EI>0); and (b), the annual Growth Index GI_A indicating areas that are suitable for growth at some point during the year (GI_A>0). This model does not include data about the presence of a suitable primary host plant.</p

CLIMEX parameters for asexual and sexual reproductive forms of <i>Rhopalosiphum padi</i>.

<p>Differences in parameter values for the two forms are emboldened. Further information regarding the literature that was used to derive these parameters can be found in Supporting Information S1.</p>†<p>Values without units are dimensionless indices.</p><p>N.B. Soil moisture indices are fractions of a 100 mm single-bucket soil moisture model where 1 is equivalent to field capacity, and 0 is oven dry. A value of 0.1 is approximately permanent wilting point.</p

United States of America showing the casual and established population range of <i>Eichhornia crassipes</i>.

<p>Black areas indicate established populations, grey areas indicate ephemeral or casual populations that die out each winter. The mapping unit is the USGS 8-digit Hydrologic Unit Catchment. Source Pam Fuller, USGS, pers. comm. The outlying established population in Colorado is in a geothermal spring with a consistent temperature of approximately 31°C (Amy Benson, USGS, pers. comm., 2009)</p

World map showing climate suitability for <i>Eichhornia crassipes</i> under current climate modelled using CLIMEX.

<p>It is assumed that <i>Eichhornia crassipes</i> will always be restricted to waterways within this suitable temperature envelope.</p

Modelled potential distribution of <i>Eichhornia crassipes</i> under current climate conditions in European and Mediterranean countries.

<p>It is assumed that <i>Eichhornia crassipes</i> will always be restricted to waterways within this climatically suitable envelope.</p

The world, showing point distribution records for the oat aphid <i>Rhopalosiphum padi</i>.

<p>The point records were collected from searches of the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, the Australian Plant Pest Database, published literature gathered through Web of Science searches, suction sample catches of the aphid throughout the UK and Europe (EXAMINE network), and specimen collection labels in museums (Australian National Insect Collection, Canadian National Collection of Insects). The CABI distribution map (Commonwealth Agricultural Bureaux International 1971) produced in 1971 and the Crop Protection Compendium (Commonwealth Agricultural Bureaux International 2007) was used to supplement these point locations with administrative region reports (shaded grey). The North American distribution points (circle A.) were used to fit both models, and the European distribution data (circle B.) used to verify the fit of the models.</p

The global distribution of <i>Eichhornia crassipes</i>, including established and casual populations.

<p>Where information has been provided by country, these administrative areas have been shaded. Where more precise distribution data is available this is indicated as dots, with established population indicated as circles, and ephemeral populations as triangles. Source: various (see Acknowledgements)</p