Assessing pricing assumptions for weather index insurance in a changing climate

Weather index insurance is being offered to low-income farmers in developing countries as an alternative to traditional multi-peril crop insurance. There is widespread support for index insurance as a means of climate change adaptation but whether or not these products are themselves resilient to climate change has not been well studied. Given climate variability and climate change, an over-reliance on historical climate observations to guide the design of such products can result in premiums which mislead policyholders and insurers alike, about the magnitude of underlying risks. Here, a method to incorporate different sources of climate data into the product design phase is presented. Bayesian Networks are constructed to demonstrate how insurers can assess the product viability from a climate perspective, using past observations and simulations of future climate. Sensitivity analyses illustrate the dependence of pricing decisions on both the choice of information, and the method for incorporating such data. The methods and their sensitivities are illustrated using a case study analysing the provision of index-based crop insurance in Kolhapur, India. We expose the benefits and limitations of the Bayesian Network approach, weather index insurance as an adaptation measure and climate simulations as a source of quantitative predictive information. Current climate model output is shown to be of limited value and difficult to use by index insurance practitioners. The method presented, however, is shown to be an effective tool for testing pricing assumptions and could feasibly be employed in the future to incorporate multiple sources of climate data

Regional climate messages for West Africa

This series is based on work funded by Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) through the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA).This report provides a general overview of the regional climate in West Africa. A follow-up report that provides a specific focus on the climate of the semi-arid regions of West Africa is currently under development

Regional climate messages for East Africa

Synthesis and analysis reportThis report provides an overview of the regional climate in East Africa. The impacts of future climate change on different sectors are complicated by the spread of model projections and the complexity of natural and societal systems. Impacts on water resources are unclear; an increase in evaporation alongside increasing temperatures may place additional stress on vulnerable systems. In the absence of clear trends in past or future rainfall, hydrological discharge trends are likely to remain primarily driven by changes to local water use and land use changes. For agriculture, there is a high degree of diversity of outcomes across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions.This series is based on work funded by Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) through the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA)

Regional climate message for Southern Africa

This report provides a general overview of the regional climate in southern Africa, including seasonal and cyclical periods. Climate trends over time are shown in figures/maps encompassing seasonally averaged spatial and temporal changes in temperature over southern Africa (1963 to 2012). In relating any observed climate trend to underlying changes in the climate, different time scales of climatic variability need to be accounted for. For instance, across the central regions of Botswana, Namibia and northern South Africa, the climate is subject to decadal and longer-term climate variability. Climate projections are also included in the report.Canada's Internantional Development Research Centre (IDRC) United Kingdom's Department for International Development (DFID), through the Collaborative Adaptation Research Centre in Africa and Asia (CARIAA

Enabling low-carbon development in poor countries

The challenges associated with achieving sustainable development goals and stabilizing the world’s climate cannot be solved without significant efforts by developing and newly-emerging countries. With respect to climate change mitigation, the main challenge for developing countries lies in avoiding future emissions and lock-ins into emission-intensive technologies, rather than reducing today’s emissions. While first best policy instruments like carbon prices could prevent increasing carbonization, those policies are often rejected by developing countries out of a concern for negative repercussions on development and long-term growth. In addition, policy environments in developing countries impose particular challenges for regulatory policy aiming to incentivize climate change mitigation and sustainable development. This chapter first discusses how climate policy could potentially interact with sustainable development and economic growth. It focuses, in particular, on the role of industrial sector development. The chapter then continues by discussing how effective policy could be designed, specifically taking developing country circumstances into account

To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?

We explore the individual and institutional conditions and the climate information used to underpin decision-making for adaptation to high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios in a land resource management context. HECC refers to extreme projections with global annual temperature increases of over 4 °C. We analyse whether HECC scenarios are used in the adaptation decision-making of stakeholders who will tackle the potential problem. We also explore whether the adaptation actions being considered are pertinent only to future climate change or whether other drivers and information types are used in decision-making (including non-climate drivers). We also address the role of knowledge uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. Decision-makers perceive HECC as having a low probability of occurrence and so they do not directly account for HECC within existing actions to address climate change. Such actions focus on incremental rather than transformative solutions in which non-climate drivers are at least as important, and in many cases more important, than climate change alone. This reflects the need to accommodate multiple concerns and low risk options (i.e. incremental change). Uncertainty in climate change information is not a significant barrier to decision-making and stakeholders indicated little need for more climate information in support of adaptation decision-making. There is, however, an identified need for more information about the implications of particular sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts under HECC scenarios. The outcomes of this study provide evidence to assist in contextualising climate change information by creating usable, cross-sectoral, decision-centred information