Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy.

In addition to quantitative assessment of economic growth using econometric models, business cycle analyses have been proved to be helpful to practitioners in order to assess current economic conditions or to anticipate upcoming fluctuations. In this paper, we focus on the acceleration cycle in the euro area, namely the peaks and troughs of the growth rate which delimitate the slowdown and acceleration phases of the economy. Our aim is twofold: First, we put forward a reference turning point chronology of this cycle on a monthly basis, based on gross domestic product and industrial production index. We consider both euro area aggregate level and country specific cycles for the six main countries of the zone. Second, we come up with a new turning point indicator, based on business surveys carefully watched by central banks and short-term analysts, in order to follow in real-time the fluctuations of the acceleration cycle. Classification-JEL : C22, C52, E32.Acceleration cycle, Euro area, Dating chronology, Turning point indicator, Business surveys.

L’indicateur synthétique mensuel d’activité (ISMA) : une révision.

L’ISMA est un des principaux outils de diagnostic conjoncturel de la Banque de France. Publié chaque mois, il estime la croissance du PIB français pour le prochain trimestre, en se basant sur les données d’enquêtes de la Banque de France.Analyse conjoncturelle, prévision du PIB, étalonnages, données d’enquête.

Pourquoi calculer un indicateur du climat des affaires dans les services ?

L’enquête mensuelle de conjoncture de la Banque de France présente chaque mois un indicateur du climat des affaires dans l’industrie. Un indicateur similaire a été construit pour les services, en appliquant une méthode analogue, à savoir l’extraction d’un facteur d’évolution qui est commun à l’ensemble des questions de l’enquête mensuelle dans les services.Analyse conjoncturelle, données d’enquête, services, interpolation, composantes principales.

Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?

This paper compares the GDP forecasting performance of alternative factor models based on monthly time series for the French economy. These models are based on static and dynamic principal components. The dynamic principal components are obtained using time and frequency domain methods. The forecasting accuracy is evaluated in two ways for GDP growth. First, we question whether it is more appropriate to use aggregate or disaggregate data (with three disaggregating levels) to extract the factors. Second, we focus on the determination of the number of factors obtained either from various criteria or from a fixed choice.GDP forecasting ; Factor models ; Data aggregation.

Deux indicateurs probabilistes de retournement cyclique pour l’économie française.

This paper proposes two new coincident probabilistic cyclical indicators developed by the Bank of France in order to follow, on a monthly basis, the French economic activity. The first one is an indicator which aims at detecting the turning points of the acceleration cycle while the second one is dedicated to the follow-up of recession phases in the industrial sector. Both indicators are based on the methodology of Markov-Switching models and use only for input the Bank of France monthly business survey. An historical validation since 1998 points out to the interest and the complementarity of both indicators for the short-term economic diagnosis. This kind of indicators provides with an original and additional conjonctural qualitative information by comparison with more classical quantitative tools aiming at estimating the GDP growth rate.Business cycle ; Acceleration cycle ; Probabilistic indicator ; Markov-Switching models ; Surveys.

Monthly forecasting of French GDP: A revised version of the OPTIM model.

This paper presents a revised version of the model OPTIM, proposed by Irac and Sédillot (2002), used at the Banque de France in order to predict French GDP quarterly growth rate, for the current and next quarters. The model is designed to be used on a monthly basis by integrating monthly economic information through bridge models, for both supply and demand sides of GDP. For each GDP component, bridge equations are specified by using a general-to-specific approach implemented in an automated way by Hoover and Perez (1999) and improved by Krolzig and Hendry (2001). This approach allows to select explanatory variables among a large data set of hard and soft data. The final choice of equations relies on a recursive forecast study, which also helps to assess the forecasting performance of the revised OPTIM model in the prediction of aggregated GDP. This study is based on pseudo real-time forecasts taking publication lags into account. It turns out that the model outperforms benchmark models.GDP forecasting ; Bridge models ; General-to-specific approach

OPTIM : un outil de prévision trimestrielle du PIB de la France.

Le modèle OPTIM permet de prévoir, chaque mois, les taux de croissance du PIB de la France et de ses principales composantes, pour le trimestre en cours et le trimestre suivant. Ce modèle mobilise un large éventail de données macro-économiques mensuelles et de données d’enquête, sélectionnées par une procédure statistique automatique.Prévision, taux de croissance du PIB, modèle d’étalonnage, approche “general-to-specific”.

Demographic transition and the real exchange rate in Australia: An empirical investigation

This article utilizes the empirical findings that age structure of the population affects saving, investment and capital flow and hypothesizes that age structure influences the real exchange rate. Based on this link, an empirical model is specified for Australia and estimated with annual data for the period 1970–2011. An autoregressive distributed lag model of cointegration indicates that Australia's real exchange rate is cointegrated with its productivity differential and the relative share of young dependents (0–14 years) in the population. Long-run estimates show that young cohort has an appreciating influence on the real exchange rate. Also, the short-run adjustment is substantial, with more than 65% of the disequilibrium corrected in a year

Why calculate a business sentiment indicator for services?.

Every month, the Banque de France’s Monthly Business Survey provides a business sentiment indicator for industry. A similar indicator has been constructed for services using a comparable method that consists in extracting a factor of change that is common to all the questions in the monthly survey on services.business conditions analysis, survey data, services, interpolation, principal components.

OPTIM: a quarterly forecasting tool for French GDP.

The OPTIM model helps to forecast each month the growth rate of French GDP and its main components for the coincident quarter and the quarter ahead. The model uses a wide range of monthly macroeconomic data and survey data, selected by an automatic statistical procedure.GDP forecasting, bridge model, general-to-specifi c approach (Gets).