To vaccinate or to isolate? Establishing which intervention leads to measurable mortality reduction during the COVID-19 Delta wave in Poland

BackgroundDuring the Delta variant COVID-19 wave in Poland there were serious regional differences in vaccination rates and discrepancies in the enforcement of pandemic preventive measures, which allowed us to assess the relative effectiveness of the policies implemented.MethodsCreating a model that would predict mortality based on vaccination rates among the most vulnerable groups and the timing of the wave peak enabled us to calculate to what extent flattening the curve reduced mortality. Subsequently, a model was created to assess which preventive measures delayed the peak of infection waves. Combining those two models allowed us to estimate the relative effectiveness of those measures.ResultsFlattening the infection curve worked: according to our model, each week of postponing the peak of the wave reduced excess deaths by 1.79%. Saving a single life during the Delta wave required one of the following: either the vaccination of 57 high-risk people, or 1,258 low-risk people to build herd immunity, or the isolation of 334 infected individuals for a cumulative period of 10.1 years, or finally quarantining 782 contacts for a cumulative period of 19.3 years.ConclusionsExcept for the most disciplined societies, vaccination of high-risk individuals followed by vaccinating low-risk groups should have been the top priority instead of relying on isolation and quarantine measures which can incur disproportionately higher social costs. Our study demonstrates that even in a country with uniform policies, implementation outcomes varied, highlighting the importance of fine-tuning policies to regional specificity

Effects of infant feeding with goat milk formula or cow milk formula on atopic dermatitis: protocol of the randomised controlled Goat Infant Formula Feeding and Eczema (GIraFFE) trial

Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic, inflammatory skin condition significantly affecting quality of life. A small randomised trial showed an approximately one-third lower incidence of AD in goat milk formula-fed compared with cow milk formula-fed infants. However, due to limited statistical power, AD incidence difference was not found to be significant. This study aims to explore a potential risk reduction of AD by feeding a formula based on whole goat milk (as a source of protein and fat) compared with a formula based on cow milk proteins and vegetable oils. Methods and analysis: This two-arm (1:1 allocation), parallel, randomised, double-blind, controlled nutritional trial shall enrol up to 2296 healthy term-born infants until 3 months of age, if parents choose to start formula feeding. Ten study centres in Spain and Poland are participating. Randomised infants receive investigational infant and follow-on formulas either based on whole goat milk or on cow milk until the age of 12 months. The goat milk formula has a whey:casein ratio of 20:80 and about 50% of the lipids are milk fat from whole goat milk, whereas the cow milk formula, used as control, has a whey:casein ratio of 60:40 and 100% of the lipids are from vegetable oils. The energy and nutrient levels in both goat and cow milk formulas are the same. The primary endpoint is the cumulative incidence of AD until the age of 12 months diagnosed by study personnel based on the UK Working Party Diagnostic Criteria. The secondary endpoints include reported AD diagnosis, measures of AD, blood and stool markers, child growth, sleep, nutrition and quality of life. Participating children are followed until the age of 5 years

Phenylketonuria Patients’ and Their Caregivers’ Perception of the Pandemic Lockdown: The Results of a National Online Survey

The first pandemic lockdown dramatically impacted many aspects of everyday life, including healthcare systems. The purpose of this study was to identify problems of patients with phenylketonuria (PKU) and their parents/caregivers during that time. We aimed to analyse potential differences in the self-reported compliance and characteristics of contacts with a doctor/dietitian before and during the pandemic lockdown and the perception of access to special food and opinions on remote contacts between a particular group of respondents. All participants (n = 614) were asked to complete an online questionnaire that consisted of 31 questions on pandemic-related events and circumstances which may have directly or indirectly impacted health and treatment. The people who completed the survey were divided into three groups: parents of PKU children (n = 403), parents of PKU adults (n = 58) and PKU patients older than 16 years (n = 153). The differences among the three analysed groups were found in the number of contacts, the way of contacting a doctor/dietitian during the pandemic and satisfaction with remote contact. Caregivers of children with PKU reported better therapy compliance, more frequent contacts with specialists and more satisfaction with remote visits than adult patients. We also observed a relationship between satisfaction from remote contact and self-reported frequency of contacts with a doctor/dietitian, as well as a relationship between satisfaction from remote contact and recommended blood Phe levels reported by both patients and caregivers. Travel time exceeding three hours from the respondents’ location to their doctor was associated with higher odds of their recognition of remote contact as a method of PKU treatment only in the group of caregivers. In the caregiver groups, the reported worse access to low-Phe products during the lockdown was linked to the perceived difficulty of maintaining the diet. However, such a relationship was not found among patients. In conclusion, significant differences in the perception of the pandemic lockdown and its impact on health and treatment-related issues were found

Exploring the paradoxical nature of cold temperature mortality in Europe

Abstract While low winter temperatures are associated with increased mortality, this phenomenon has been suggested to be most severe in regions with seemingly mild winters. The study aimed to establish a temperature-based formula that could elucidate the previously ambiguous regional differences in vulnerability to low temperature. European weekly mortality data (2000–2019) were matched with meteorological data to determine for each region vulnerability to temperature decrease and the optimal temperature with lowest mortality. Regression models were developed to generalize and explain these findings considering regional temperature characteristics. Optimal temperature could be predicted based on local average summer temperature (R2 = 85.6%). Regional vulnerability to temperature decrease could be explained by combination of winter and summer temperatures (R2 = 86.1%). Regions with warm winters and cold summers showed the highest vulnerability to decrease of temperature during winter. Contrary to theories about economic disparities Eastern Europe exhibited resistance comparable to Scandinavia. The southern edges of Europe demonstrated serious low temperature vulnerability to decreased temperatures, even if temperature was relatively high around 20 °C. This suggests that the observed connection primarily reflects the modulation of the length of respiratory virus infection seasons by climate conditions, counterbalanced by varying levels of acquired immunity and the presence of heatwaves eliminating the most frail individuals. Thus, relatively low vulnerability and a flat mortality cycle in countries with harsh climates paradoxically imply the presence of threats throughout the whole year

COVID-19 passport as a factor determining the success of national vaccination campaigns: does it work? The case of Lithuania vs. Poland

As the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic poses a global threat, it is of utmost importance that governments should find effective means of combating vaccine hesitancy and encouraging their citizens to vaccinate. In our article, we compare the vaccination outcomes in the past months in two neighbouring post-communist EU states, Lithuania and Poland. Both introduced COVID- 19 certificates, but only the former followed with gradual limitations for those who failed to get vaccinated, beginning with restricted access to restaurants, sports facilities and indoor events, and finally banning residents without a certificate from entering supermarkets or larger shops and using most services. By contrast, in Poland, the certificate remained a tool for international travel only. We show using statistical data that Lithuania’s strict policy, regardless of its social implications, led to markedly higher vaccination outcomes in all age groups than those in Poland at the time

More Time, Carrot-and-Stick, or Piling Coffins? Estimating the Role of Factors Overcoming COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy in Poland and Lithuania in the Years 2021–2022

In this study, motivation for late (from 2021-W22, i.e., 24 July 2021) uptake of the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine among adults in Poland and Lithuania is indirectly measured in order to avoid social-desirability bias or rationalisation in retrospect of prior decisions. Weekly vaccine uptake is modeled as if vaccine hesitant people were late adopters of a new product, with a fitted non-linear trend representing steadily decreasing interest. Before the analysed period, the vaccine uptake among Polish and Lithuanian adults was almost identical. Vaccination simply explainable by the trend was responsible for the vaccination of an additional 19.96% and 19.06% adults, respectively. The fear incurred by spikes in consecutive waves of infection motivated 3.20% and 3.89% more people, respectively, while the COVID-19 passport, introduced only in Lithuania, convinced an additional 13.98% of the overall population. The effect of the COVID passport was the biggest in the 18–24 age group, and the least visible among people aged 80 or more. In the latter group, other factors also had a limited impact, with merely 1.32% tempted by the one-time €100 payment offered to everybody aged 75 or more

Better Late Than Never: Predictors of Delayed COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake in Poland

In this study, regression models were created to explain the increase of COVID-19 vaccination rates in 378 Polish sub-regions. In order to trace the factors that could explain the willingness to delay vaccination, vaccination rates were compared for age groups of 20 years and more for 30 June 2020 and 31 January 2021. Initially high vaccination rates, rather than leading to the gradual exhaustion of the pool of those wishing to get vaccinated, were a very good predictor of the share of the remainder willing to do so, which increased the divergence between sub-regions in nominal vaccination rates. Support for Eurosceptic and anti-establishment parties was a strong predictor of persistent vaccine hesitancy. Ideological divergence from the mainstream appeared to reinforce vaccine hesitancy, and this relationship remained highly relevant even when controlling for possible time or spatial lag. Markers of social inclusion and social capital—voter turnout and employment rate—remained statistically significant even when controlling for time lag, thus implying clear relevance of trust in the public message. The share of the population with higher education remained a highly relevant factor as well, though in the 20–39 age bracket it predicted a higher vaccination rate, while in all older brackets it was a negative predictor—this implies that those people had already made up their minds. Delaying vaccination seems predominantly explainable by political views, as well as social exclusion and the historical specificity of sub-regions. On a regional level, there was actually a paradoxical Spearmans Rho correlation (0.641) between the share of population refusing mandatory vaccination for kids and the percentage of people receiving a COVID-19 vaccine, which further undermines the idea that overall observed vaccine hesitancy was in any meaningful way affected by anti-vaccine movements

Are We Facing a Tsunami of Vaccine Hesitancy or Outdated Pandemic Policy in Times of Omicron? Analyzing Changes of COVID-19 Vaccination Trends in Poland

In this study, we analyzed Polish COVID-19 vaccination data until January 2023 from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to understand individual decision making during the milder Omicron wave. Our findings show a general decline in subsequent vaccine uptake. As the number of government-provided doses increased, completion rates among certain low-risk groups dropped to less than 1%. Elderly individuals, especially those aged 70–79, showed greater adherence but also exhibited decreased interest in subsequent boosters. Healthcare workers exhibited a dramatic shift in their attitude, disregarding the recommended schedule. The overwhelming majority opted out of receiving the second boosters, while the remaining individuals adjusted their timing based on infection trends or the availability of updated boosters. Two factors positively influenced vaccination decisions: societal influence and the availability of updated boosters. Lower-risk individuals were more likely to postpone vaccination until updated boosters were available. Our findings highlight that while Polish policy aligns with international guidelines, it fails to garner significant adherence from the Polish population. Previous studies have shown that vaccinating low-risk groups resulted in more sick days due to adverse events following immunization than the days gained by preventing infection. Consequently, we advocate for the official abandonment of this policy, as its practical abandonment has already taken place, and persisting in pretending otherwise only serves to erode public trust. Therefore, we propose a shift toward treating COVID-19-like influenza with vaccination for vulnerable individuals and those who have close contact with them before the season

Caring for Children with Dravet Syndrome: Exploring the Daily Challenges of Family Caregivers

While Polish studies focus on the symptoms, causes and treatment of people suffering from Dravet syndrome (DS), much less is known about the situation of the family caregivers of DS children. This study was designed to explore the experiences, daily challenges and needs related to caring for DS children. An anonymous self-administered online questionnaire was developed. The survey was completed by 75 family caregivers affiliated with the Association for People with Severe Refractory Epilepsy DRAVET.PL on Facebook. Most caregivers felt burdened by their children’s reduced mobility (57.3%), mood swings (57.3%), lack of access to rehabilitation and medicine (56%) and healthcare expenses (50.7%). Caregivers also complained of a lack of time to themselves (76%) and work restrictions resulting from caregiving (72%). They consequently reported experiencing fatigue (84%), a deterioration of mental health (60%) and intimacy problems with their spouse/partner (53.4%). An important source of strain was a prolonged diagnostic odyssey and the constant struggle over the healthcare services for DS children. Since DS caregivers’ problems and needs are often overlooked, they may be described as the forgotten people in DS. Healthcare professionals should be educated about the challenges related to caring for DS child, psycho-social status and coping resources of DS caregivers, and should focus on identification, monitoring and supporting caregivers’ physical and mental well-being and needs

Parental experiences and needs of caring for a child with 22q11.2 deletion syndrome

Abstract Background For a variety of reasons, raising a child with 22q11.2DS has significant psychosocial and financial repercussions for the family caregivers. Our aim was to identify and explain the expectations and concerns of Polish parents of 22q11.2DS children. An online survey was developed consisting of four sections: demographics, emotions experienced by caregivers while performing their duties, attitudes of the respondents about providing care, and finally different aspects of the caregivers’ life satisfaction. The study was conducted with the support of the Polish 22q11 Association. Results Forty-four caregivers of Polish origin completed the survey, all but one of whom were mothers. Thirty-four per cent (n = 15/44) declared full-time employment. According to 73% (n = 32/44) of those surveyed, the child’s disease has not harmed their relationship with the partner. In spite of the fact that the median diagnosis time was 1.9 years (ranging from 0 to 12 years), the caregivers indicated that they had contacted on average 3.9 doctors before obtaining the right diagnosis (range 1–17). The Internet was the main source of information and knowledge about their child’s disease for 93% of respondents (n = 41/44), while for 54% (n = 24/44) it was the association for people with 22q11DS. Only 26% rated as very good or good the support for caregivers offered by the central and local government or its agendas. The physicians’ knowledge about 22q11DS was positively rated by 14% of respondents (n = 6/44). The most frequently chosen source of support for 66% of respondents (n = 29/44) turned out to be their families, and for 34% – a Facebook support group (n = 15/44). Asked how often they rated their quality of life (QoL) highly, none of our respondents chose the option “always”, although 64% (28/44) gave the answer “often”. Conclusion Our study is the first one in Poland to develop an online survey specifically for use with caregivers of paediatric patients with 22q11.2DS. Our respondents revealed that caring for 22q11.2 children entails a burden that extends far beyond clinical facets and has a significant impact on every dimension of the caregivers’ lives, including their mental health, everyday activities, families, professional career and social lives. At the same time, caregivers are de facto left alone with the bureaucracy of the healthcare system