UN IGME and IHME estimates of the annual rate of reduction for 1990–2010.

<p>UN IGME estimates are plotted against IHME estimates. Grey area illustrates absolute differences of up to 1%, 2%, and 3%, respectively (absolute difference). Red indicates that the difference is at least 2% and the conclusion as to whether the country is on track to meet MDG 4 (a 4.4% annual decline) differs between the IHME and the UN IGME.</p

Decomposition of differences in U5MR for 1990, 2000, and 2010 into differences due to data and differences due to use of GPR.

<p>The grey box represents differences up to ten deaths per 1,000 births. Countries for which the difference due to either factor is larger than ten deaths per 1,000 births are highlighted in red.</p

Comparison of global estimates of the U5MR and the number of under-five deaths, from 1990 to 2010.

<p>Estimates by the UN IGME (blue) and the IHME (red, with 95% uncertainty intervals represented by the shaded areas).</p

Comparison of U5MR estimates from 1990 to 2010 for examples of countries with different completeness of the databases used by the UN IGME and the IHME.

<p>Estimates by the UN IGME (blue line) and the IHME (red line, with 95% confidence intervals represented by the shaded areas). Data from the UN IGME 2011 database (IGME data) are added as blue dots.</p

Examples of U5MR estimates based on loess versus GPR fitting methods.

<p>For each country is shown (i) loess fit to the 2011 UN IGME database (IGME 2010*; data and fit in blue; dataset excludes data collected in 2010), (ii) loess fit to the 2010 IHME database (data in red; fit in black), and (iii) GPR fit to the 2010 IHME database (IHME 2010; data and fit in red).</p

Comparison of U5MR estimates from 1990 to 2010 for examples of countries with conflicts/natural disasters or dubious data quality.

<p>Estimates by the UN IGME (blue line) and the IHME (red line, with 95% confidence intervals represented by the shaded areas). Data from the UN IGME 2011 database (IGME data) are added as blue dots.</p

Comparison of U5MR estimates from 1990 to 2010 for examples of high HIV prevalence countries where the UN IGME carried out an adjusted estimation procedure.

<p>Estimates by the UN IGME (blue line) and the IHME (red line, with 95% confidence intervals represented by the shaded areas). Data from the UN IGME 2011 database (IGME data) are added as blue dots. Note that for South Africa, treatment of VR data also differs between the UN IGME and the IHME.</p

Decomposition of differences in under-five deaths for 1990, 2000, and 2010 into differences due to rates and differences due to estimation method.

<p>The grey box represents differences up to 20,000 deaths. Countries for which the difference due to either factor is larger than 20,000 deaths are highlighted in red.</p

Comparison of U5MR estimates from 1990 to 2010 for examples of countries with different treatment of vital registration data by the UN IGME and the IHME.

<p>Estimates by the UN IGME (blue line) and the IHME (red line, with 95% confidence intervals represented by the shaded areas). Data from the UN IGME 2011 database (IGME data) are added as blue dots.</p

The number of countries (proportion of countries) with a given absolute difference and relative difference in U5MR as estimated by the UN IGME and the IHME, in 1990, 2000, and 2010.

<p>The number of countries (proportion of countries) with a given absolute difference and relative difference in U5MR as estimated by the UN IGME and the IHME, in 1990, 2000, and 2010.</p