Real Output Costs of Financial Crises: A Loss Distribution Approach

We study cross-country GDP losses due to financial crises in terms of frequency (number of loss events per period) and severity (loss per occurrence). We perform the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) to estimate a multi-country aggregate GDP loss probability density function and the percentiles associated to extreme events due to financial crises. We find that output losses arising from financial crises are strongly heterogeneous and that currency crises lead to smaller output losses than debt and banking crises. Extreme global financial crises episodes, occurring with a one percent probability every five years, lead to losses between 2.95% and 4.54% of world GDP.Comment: 31 pages, 10 figure

Directly Measuring the Tensor Structure of the Scalar Coupling to Gauge Bosons

Kinematic distributions in the decays of the newly discovered resonance to four leptons can provide a direct measurement of the tensor structure of the particle's couplings to gauge bosons. Even if the particle is shown to be a parity even scalar, measuring this tensor structure is a necessary step in determining if this particle is responsible for giving mass to the Z. We consider a Standard Model like coupling as well as coupling via a dimension five operator to either ZZ or Z\gamma. We show that using full kinematic information from each event allows discrimination between renormalizable and higher dimensional coupling to ZZ at the 95% confidence level with O(50) signal events, and coupling to Z\gamma can be distinguished with as few as 20 signal events. This shows that these measurements can be useful even with this year's LHC data.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures; typos corrected, references adde

The Virtual Diphoton Excess

Interpreting the excesses around 750 GeV in the diphoton spectra to be the signal of a new heavy scalar decaying to photons, we point out the possibility of looking for correlated signals with virtual photons. In particular, we emphasize that the effective operator that generates the diphoton decay will also generate decays to two leptons and a photon, as well as to four leptons, independently of the new resonance couplings to $Z\gamma$ and $ZZ$. Depending on the relative sizes of these effective couplings, we show that the virtual diphoton component can make up a sizable, and sometimes dominant, contribution to the total $2\ell \gamma$ and $4\ell$ partial widths. We also discuss modifications to current experimental cuts in order to maximize the sensitivity to these virtual photon effects. Finally, we briefly comment on prospects for channels involving other Standard Model fermions as well as more exotic decay possibilities of the putative resonance.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures; v2 figure 2 and references adde

Fundamental Principles and Rights At Work: Value, Viability, Incidence and Importance as Elements For Economic Progress and Social Justice

Working Paper prepared for the ILO by Maria Luz Vega Ruiz and Daniel Martinez, focusing on the rights at work in Latin America and the Caribbean

Golden Probe of the Top Yukuwa

We perform a preliminary study of the ability of the Higgs decay to four leptons to shed light on the top quark Yukawa couplings. In particular we examine whether the $h\to 4\ell$ `golden channel' is sensitive to the $CP$ properties of the top quark couplings to the Higgs boson. We show that kinematic distributions are sensitive to interference of the next-to-leading order electroweak corrections with the tree level $ZZ$ contribution. This translates into a sensitivity to the top quark Yukawa couplings such that meaningful constraints on their $CP$ properties can begin to be obtained once $\sim 300$ fb$^{-1}$ of data has been collected at $\sim 14$ TeV, with significant improvements at higher luminosity or with a higher energy hadron collider. This makes the $h\to4\ell$ channel a useful probe of the top quark Yukawa couplings that is qualitatively different from already established searches in $h\to V\gamma$ two body decays, $tth$, and $gg\to h$. We also briefly discuss other potential possibilities for probing the top Yukawa $CP$ properties in $h\to2\ell\gamma$ and $\ell^+\ell^-\to h Z, h\gamma$.Comment: references and footnote adde

Star polymers rupture induced by constant forces

In this work, we study the breakage process of an unknotted three-arm star-shaped polymer when it is pulled from its free ends by a constant force. The star polymer configuration is described through an array of monomers coupled by anharmonic bonds, while the rupture process is tracked in three-dimensional space by means of Langevin Molecular Dynamics simulations. The interaction between monomers is described by a Morse potential, while a Weeks-Chandler-Anderson energetic contribution accounts for the excluded volume interaction. We explore the effect of the molecular architecture on the distributions of rupture times over a broad interval of pulling forces and star configurations. It was found that the rupture time distribution of the individual star arms is strongly affected by the star configuration imposed by the pulling forces and the length of the arms. We also observed that for large pulling forces the rupture time distributions resemble the dominant features observed for linear polymer chains. The model introduced here provides the basic ingredients to describe the effects of tensile forces on stress-induced degradation of branched macromolecules and polymer networks.Fil: García, Nicolás. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Física del Sur. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Física. Instituto de Física del Sur; ArgentinaFil: Febbo, Mariano. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Física del Sur. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Física. Instituto de Física del Sur; ArgentinaFil: Vega, Daniel Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Física del Sur. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Física. Instituto de Física del Sur; ArgentinaFil: Milchev, A.. Bulgarian Academy of Sciences; Bulgari