Consumption, Retirement, and Social Security: Evaluating the Efficiency of Reform with a Life-Cycle Model

This paper analyzes the effect of a potential reform to the Social Security system on individuals’ retirement and consumption choices. We first estimate the coefficients for a life-cycle model. We assume intratemporally nonseparable preference orderings and endogenous retirement. Our framework allows the possibility of disability. The specification predicts a change in consumption at retirement; we use the empirical magnitude of the change, together with desired retirement age, to identify key parameters such as the curvature of the utility function. We then qualitatively and quantitatively study the possible long-run effect of a Social Security reform in which individuals no longer face the OASI payroll tax after some specified age, and their subsequent earnings have no bearing on their Social Security benefits. Simulations indicate that retirement ages would rise by as much as one year, equivalent variations could average $5000 (1984 dollars) per household or more, and reform could generate$2500 or more additional income tax revenue per household.

Cognitive Ability and Retiree Health Care Expenditure

Prior research indicates that retirees with less cognitive ability are at greater financial risk because they have lower incomes yet higher medical expenditures. Linking HRS data to administrative records, we evaluate two hypotheses about why this group spends more on health: (1) they are in worse health; (2) they receive more expensive or less effective care for the same conditions. We find that the bulk, but not all, of the cross-sectional relationship can be attributed to the poorer health of those with lower cognitive functioning. Much of this relationship appears to be driven by coincident declines in cognitive ability and health. While, in this respect, the data have important limitations, we find no evidence of substantial differences in care, conditional on observable health.

How the use of language shapes which Islamic groupsWesterners support

The US faces a complicated foreign policy environment in the Middle East, with a number of Muslim groups and actors involved, some seeing US support, some working in opposition. In new research, Mujtaba Isani and Daniel Silverman examine how Islamic cues influence the opinion of those in the West towards such groups. They find that such cues – for example, Shari’a law being a policy goal – do matter, and that the degree to which is heavily influenced by citizens’ partisanship

StateSim: Lessons Learned from 20 Years of A Country Modeling and Simulation Toolset

A holy grail for military, diplomatic, and intelligence analysis is a valid set of software agent models that act as the desired ethno-political factions so that one can test the effects of alternative courses of action in different countries. This article explains StateSim, a country modeling approach that synthesizes best-of-breed theories from across the social sciences and that has helped numerous organizations over 20 years to study insurgents, gray zone actors, and other societal instabilities. The country modeling literature is summarized (Sect 1.1) and synthetic inquiry is contrasted with scientific inquiry (Sect. 1.2 and 2). Section 2 also explains many fielded StateSim applications and 100s of past acceptability tests and validity assessments. Section 3 then describes how users now construct and run ‘first pass’ country models within hours due to the StateSim Generator, while Section 4 offers two country analyses that illustrate this approach. The conclusions explain lessons learned

Reproductive Coercion and Relationship Abuse Among Adolescents and Young Women Seeking Care at School Health Centers.

ObjectiveTo investigate demographic differences and evaluate how reproductive coercion and relationship abuse influences young females' care-seeking and sexual health behaviors.MethodsWe conducted a secondary analysis of cross-sectional baseline survey data from sexually active female students (aged 14-19 years) who sought care from school health centers. Outcomes included recent (previous 3 months) reproductive coercion, physical or sexual adolescent relationship abuse, and nonpartner sexual violence victimization. Cluster-adjusted χ tests compared demographics and generalized linear mixed models estimated associations among reproductive coercion, adolescent relationship abuse (physical and sexual abuse in romantic relationships), and care-seeking and sexual health behaviors.ResultsOf 550 sexually active high school females, 12% reported recent reproductive coercion and 17% reported physical or sexual adolescent relationship abuse, with no significant demographic differences. Prevalence of recent nonpartner sexual violence was 17%. There were no observed significant differences in care-seeking behaviors among those with recent reproductive coercion compared with those without. Physical or sexual adolescent relationship abuse was associated with increased odds of seeking testing or treatment for sexually transmitted infections (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.08, 95% CI 1.05-4.13). Females exposed to both adolescent relationship abuse and reproductive coercion had higher odds of having a partner who was 5 or more years older (aOR 4.66, 95% CI 1.51-14.4), having two or more recent sexual partners (aOR 3.86, 95% CI 1.57-9.48), and using hormonal contraception only (aOR 3.77, 95% CI 1.09-13.1 vs hormonal methods with condoms).ConclusionAlmost one in eight females experienced recent reproductive coercion. We did not observe significant demographic differences in reproductive coercion. Partner age and number of sexual partners may elevate risk for abusive relationships. Relationship abuse is prevalent among high school students seeking care, with no clear pattern for case identification. By failing to identify factors associated with harmful partner behaviors, our results support universal assessment for reproductive coercion and relationship abuse among high school-aged adolescents, involving education, resources, and harm-reduction counseling to all patients.Clinical trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01678378