Reviewing Vietnam's Nationally Determined Contribution: A New Perspective Using the Marginal Cost of Abatement

The processes countries use to revise their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the UNFCCC's Paris Agreement will be key to ensure that their pledges lead to effective climate change policy. In many developing countries, the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is central to their NDCs. For this study, a marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve was used to review Vietnam's mitigation pledges pertaining to the AFOLU sector. We conclude that Vietnam has the potential to increase its NDC pledges, especially in the land use sector and through negative cost mitigation measures including water techniques for rice cultivation, agroforestry, and management of livestock diets and manure. While the MAC curve alone is insufficient to prioritize policy options, this study highlights the fundamental importance of continuous data improvement and refinement for monitoring NDC actions and ultimately achieving the goals set out in the Paris Agreement

Multiscale Interactions of climate variability and rainfall in the Sogamoso River Basin: Implications for the 1998–2000 and 2010–2012 multiyear La Niña events

In this research, we explored rainfall variability in the Sogamoso River Basin (SRB), its relationship with multiple scales of variability associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the implications for rainfall prolongation during multiyear La Niña events. First, we examined time-frequency rainfall variations in the SRB based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) from 1982 to 2019, using wavelet transform and principal component analysis (PCA). In addition, we applied wavelet analysis to investigate the links at different time scales between ENSO and the main mode of rainfall variability in the SRB. Finally, we explored the role that each scale of variability played in the prolongation and intensity of rainfall in the SRB during the 1998–2000 and 2010–2012 multiyear La Niña events. The results of the wavelet analyses revealed significant ENSO relationships affecting SRB rainfall at three different scales: quasi-biennial (2–3-years) between 1994 and 2002, as well as from 2008 to 2015; interannual (5–7 years) from 1995 to 2011; and quasidecadal (9–12 years) from 1994 to 2012. This indicates that multiyear events are a consequence of the interaction of several scales of variability rather than a unique scale. During the 1998–2000 event, El Niño conditions were observed during the first half of 1998; subsequently, a cooling of the central and eastern tropical Pacific (western tropical Pacific) on the quasi-biennial (interannual) scale was observed during 1999; in 2000, only La Niña conditions were observed on the interannual scale. Therefore, during this event, the quasi-biennial (interannual) scale promoted wet conditions in the Caribbean, the Andes, and the Colombian Pacific from June–August (JJA) 1998 to JJA 1999 (during 1999–2000). During the 2010–2012 La Niña event, the interbasin sea surface temperature gradient between the tropical Pacific and tropical North Atlantic contributed to strengthening (weakening) of the Choco jet (Caribbean low-level jet) on the quasi-biennial scale during 2010, and the interannual scale prolonged its intensification (weakening) during 2011–2012, acting to extend the rainy periods over most of the Colombian territory. Variations on quasi-decadal scales were modulated by the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), resulting in a further intensification of the 2010–2012 La Niña event, which developed under conditions of the cold PDO (CPDO) phase, whereas the 1998–2000 La Niña occurred during the transition from warm (WPDO, 1977–1998) to cold (CPDO, 2001–2015) conditions. These results indicate that the interaction of quasi-biennial to quasi-decadal scales of variability could play a differential role in the configuration and prolongation of rainfall events in the SRB

Cadenas sostenibles ante un clima cambiante: Análisis y Recomendaciones

El cumplimiento de las metas climáticas es un reto que actualmente asume la mayoría de los países a nivel mundial, incrementando sus exigencias de reducción de emisiones y adaptación para responder ante impactos cada vez más recurrentes del clima. Colombia se ha comprometido desde hace años con altos objetivos climáticos. Para ello, el programa ProNDC apoya al Gobierno colombiano en la coordinación efectiva de las medidas relevantes de mitigación y adaptación al cambio climático, en cooperación con actores públicos y privados, para la implementación de sus metas de cambio climático (NDC, por sus siglas en inglés). Esta serie de cinco publicaciones es el resultado del trabajo de investigación desarrollado por los especialistas del Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) en coordinación con el equipo ProNDC y sus contrapartes (Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible, Ministerio de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural y el Departamento Nacional de Planeación) para reunir la información de base sobre cinco cadenas de valor y su potencial en materia de adaptación al cambio climático y reducción de emisiones de gases efecto invernadero. Las cadenas seleccionadas por ProNDC y sus contrapartes fueron: cacao, maíz, papa y ganadería bovina tanto para carne como para leche. Para ello, el CIAT reunió y sistematizó la información existente para cada una de las cadenas mencionadas —desde sus eslabones más importantes, los actores involucrados, sus estructuras y experiencias de cooperación existentes—. A partir de ello, analizó tanto el riesgo climático, como la resiliencia y la capacidad adaptativa, así como las emisiones vinculadas y el potencial de reducción en las mismas en la producción, transformación y distribución de cada producto. El resultado ha sido el establecimiento de una línea de base sobre el potencial climático de cada cadena de valor. Esto permitirá a actores clave abordar las iniciativas de desarrollo productivo de manera sistémica y tomar decisiones en conjunto para lograr potenciar una producción más sostenible en materia climática. Para ser más concretos: con este análisis los actores encuentran las claves para cambiar su manera de producir, de transformar, de perfeccionar y de comercializar los productos con menos emisiones y aumentando la resiliencia de las culturas agrícolas y de las culturas humanas. Esta transformación no solamente permitiría mantener los empleos agropecuarios existentes, sino adicionalmente darles una perspectiva más amplia frente a un mercado que exige más y más productos sostenibles. Esta es una realidad que se ha hecho más urgente por una economía golpeada por la actual pandemia, y que requiere compromisos y acciones conjuntas cada vez más exigentes que permitan acelerar tanto los procesos de recuperación de la economía como una producción inteligente ante un clima cambiante

Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application

This paper presents a hydrological assessment of the 113,981 km2 Meta River basin in Colombia using 13 global climate models to predict water yield for 2050 under two CMIP6 scenarios, SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5. Despite mixed performance across subbasins, the model was notably effective in the upper Meta River subbasin. This study predicts an overall increase in the basin’s annual water yield due to increased precipitation, especially in flatter regions. Under the SSP 4.5, the Meta River basin’s water flow is expected to rise from 5141.6 m3/s to 6397.5 m3/s, and to 6101.5 m3/s under the SSP 8.5 scenario, marking 24% and 19% increases in water yield, respectively. Conversely, the upper Meta River subbasin may experience a slight decrease in water yield, while the upper Casanare River subbasin is predicted to see significant increases. The South Cravo River subbasin, however, is expected to face a considerable decline in water yield, indicating potential water scarcity. This study represents a pioneering large-scale application of the InVEST–AWY model in Colombia using CMIP6 global climate models with an integrated approach to produce predictions of future water yields

Reviewing Vietnam's Nationally Determined Contribution: A New Perspective Using the Marginal Cost of Abatement

The processes countries use to revise their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the UNFCCC's Paris Agreement will be key to ensure that their pledges lead to effective climate change policy. In many developing countries, the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is central to their NDCs. For this study, a marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve was used to review Vietnam's mitigation pledges pertaining to the AFOLU sector. We conclude that Vietnam has the potential to increase its NDC pledges, especially in the land use sector and through negative cost mitigation measures including water techniques for rice cultivation, agroforestry, and management of livestock diets and manure. While the MAC curve alone is insufficient to prioritize policy options, this study highlights the fundamental importance of continuous data improvement and refinement for monitoring NDC actions and ultimately achieving the goals set out in the Paris Agreement