Sum of observed and predicted Japanese encephalitis cases modeled with and without vaccination over the 10-year surveillance period.

1<p>Predicted JE cases are predictions where the vaccine regime was as observed.</p>2<p>Predicted JE cases with no vaccine assume no vaccine over the entire 10-years period.</p>3<p>Predicted JE cases with vaccine assume vaccine usage over the entire 10-years period.</p

Time series (A) and seasonality (B) of confirmed Japanese Encephalitis cases from Sarawak, Malaysia from April 1997 to December 2006.

<p>Time series (A) and seasonality (B) of confirmed Japanese Encephalitis cases from Sarawak, Malaysia from April 1997 to December 2006.</p

Observed versus predicted JE cases (A) without and (B) with vaccine coverage over the 10-year surveillance period:

<p>the vertical grey dotted line represents the introduction of the JE vaccine into the National Immunization program in Sarawak, Malaysia in July 2001. A–Predicted JE cases modelled without vaccine coverage over the 10-year period, minimum temperature at 6-months lag, rainfall at 1-month lag, SOI at 6-months lag and modelled seasonality. B– Predicted JE cases modelled with vaccine coverage throughout the 10-year surveillance period, minimum temperature at 6-months lag, rainfall at 1-month lag, SOI at 6-months lag and modelled seasonality).</p

Multivariable estimate of JE risk ratio for vaccine coverage year, controlling for seasonal periodicity using Poisson regression.

<p>RR = risk ratio;</p>a<p>Based on Wald chi-square test;</p>b<p>Risk Ratio;</p>c<p>Reference.</p>d<p>β-value.</p><p>Akaike information criterion = 317.398, Adjusted Pseudo-R² = 0.278. cos12 and sin12 models annual periodicity; cos6 and sin6 models biannual periodicity. Pseudo- R² is based on 1 minus the deviance ratio between the full model vs. the Intercept only model adjusting for the number of explanatory terms in a model (1 – (Full model _DEV/Intercept only model _DEV) * ((n-1)/(n-k-1))), where n is the sample size and k is the number of explanatory terms.</p

Japanese encephalitis risk reduction at different vaccine efficacies (VE) for the vaccine only model (vaccine, seasonality and no weather variables), and the observed climate and vaccine model (vaccine, seasonality, temperature, rainfall and SOI).

<p>Japanese encephalitis risk reduction at different vaccine efficacies (VE) for the vaccine only model (vaccine, seasonality and no weather variables), and the observed climate and vaccine model (vaccine, seasonality, temperature, rainfall and SOI).</p

Observed versus predicted JE cases for observed climate and vaccine model (vaccine, seasonality, temperature, rainfall and SOI):

<p>time series (A); the vertical grey dotted line represents the introduction of the JE vaccine into the National Immunization program in Sarawak, Malaysia in July 2001 and scatter plot (B) of predicted versus observed values of JE cases; diagonal line represent the trend through all data points during the non-vaccine and vaccine years. Model fitted using Poisson regression.</p

Multivariable estimate of the JE risk ratio for vaccine coverage year, different weather variables and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), controlling for seasonal periodicity using Poisson regression.

<p>RR = risk ratio;</p>a<p>Based on Wald chi-square test;</p>b<p>Risk Ratio;</p>c<p>Reference.</p>d<p>β-value.</p><p>Akaike information criterion = 300.196, Adjusted Pseudo-R² = 0.377. cos12 and sin12 models annual periodicity; cos6 and sin6 models biannual periodicity. Pseudo- R² is based on 1 minus the deviance ratio between the full model vs. the Intercept only model adjusting for the number of explanatory terms in a model (1 – (Full model _DEV/Intercept only model _DEV) * ((n-1)/(n-k-1))), where n is the sample size and k is the number of explanatory terms.</p