Using the Multivariate Data Analysis Techniques on the Insurance Market

In the present financial theory, we confront with complex economic phenomena and activities which cannot be studied or analyzed profoundly because of the plurality of existing variables, ratios and information. The economic, financial and social activity carried on under crisis or economic growth conditions registered year by year a development of the products and instruments in use. The complexity of the economic area may be simplified through techniques of multi-dimensional analysis. Such a method is the analysis of the principal components which allows the decreasing of the initial causal space dimension generated by the functional links which are established among the initial explanatory variables. The dimension of this space is determined by the number of explanatory variables identified as causes of the economic phenomenon and the higher their number, the more difficult it is to analyze the initial causal space because the information volume, the complexity of calculations, the risk not to identify the contribution of each variable to the creation of the initial causal space variability and the decrease in the initial variables significance in case they would be inter-correlated grow. The simplification of the initial causal space means the determination of a change which consists in transition from a space with a large number of variables to another one of fewer dimensions, equivalent but on the conditions of keeping maximum information from the initial space and maximizing the variability of the new space (called principal space). Variables from the principal space represent the principal components, they are un-correlated and the vectors which define them have a unitary length.original variables, covariance matrix, eigenvalue, eigenvector, principal components, total variance, generalized variance, factor matrix, factor loadings, factor scores, classification

An Assessment of the Bankruptcy Risk on the Romanian Capital Market

AbstractIn this article, we use statistical models, such as Principal Component Analysis, Cluster Analysis Discriminant Analysis and Altman model to asses the bankruptcy risk on the Romanian capital market. Working on the financial data for the fiscal year 2012, we identify 3 groups of companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, based on their associated bankruptcy risk. The obtained results can be used by professionals and investors to build appropiate investment strategies, adding new insights on the Romanian capital market. Also, the presented method can function as an early-warning mechanism, helping the authorities adjust their regulatory and supervising tools

Approaches on Correlation between Board of Directors and Risk Management in Resilient Economies

The recent financial crisis highlighted the need for a strong emphasis on the effectiveness of board risk oversight practices. Good corporate governance upholds effective risk management, which in turn ensures the flexibility to reply to unpredicted threats and take benefit of opportunities. Thus, risk management affords corporate resilience that engenders competitive advantage due to the capacity to circumvent, deter, defend, react, and adjust to any kind of disturbance, besides recovering quickly. Guaranteeing that the board is prepared and adequately resilient to deal with a crisis circumstance is a crucial part of good governance. By employing a data set of companies listed in Romania, this paper analyzes whether boards of directors influence risk management. We measure boards by means of size, independence, diversity, establishment of Consultative Committees, as well as CEO duality, gender, age, and tenure. Based on ten financial ratios, we develop two risk indicators regarding shareholders’ wealth and short-term risk, alongside a global business failure risk tool, by means of principal component analysis. Furthermore, the output of the multivariate regression analysis show that CEO gender, the size of the board, and Audit Committee negatively influence business failure risk

Substantiating the Incurred but not Reported Reserve

In order to handle past and future liability taken by insurance contracts concluded, any insurance company must constitute and maintain technical reserves. Substantiating technical reserves is done through actuarial methods and its over-evaluation or under-evaluation influence solvency and financial performance of the insurance companies, in the sense of reducing solvency through over-evaluating reserves and, respectively, influencing profit (hence of outstanding tax) through under-evaluating reserves. An important reserve for insurance companies is represented by the incurred but not reported reserve, as it allows the estimation of the liability the company may confront in the future, generated by events occurred in the past, which are not currently known in the present but will be reported in the future

VaR Methodology Application for Banking Currency Portfolios

VaR has become the standard measure that financial analysts use to quantify market risk. VaR measures can have many applications, such as in risk management, to evaluate the performance of risk takers and for regulatory requirements, and hence it is very important to develop methodologies that provide accurate estimates. In particular, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision at the Bank for International Settlements imposes to financial institutions such as banks and investment firms to meet capital requirements based on VaR estimates. In this paper we determine VaR for a banking currency portfolio and respect rules of National Bank of Romania regarding VaR report

Foreign Exchange Risk in International Transactions

Every international business is affected by the ever-changing value of the currencies implied in contracts. While many of us consider this unpredictability a nuisance, the volatility of currencies around the world can mean the difference between success and failure for many exporters/importers. Exchange rates between one currency and another can change dramatically in a short period of time, leaving the unprepared business exposed to potentially crippling losses. The efficient management of this risk is essential for the survival of a company and any business that is exposed to such a risk should ensure that it is fully prepared to manage it. Old standbys and recent breakthroughs in the area of financial risk management can remove much of the risk from currency rate movements. The range of such products is huge, with increasingly sophisticated techniques constantly being added. Among the most modern methods for managing exchange risk there are four major classes of derivative products like: forwards, futures, options, and swaps. Beyond the four main types of risk management instruments, there are a number of other products including "swaptions" (options on swaps); avenging options; yield curve swaps; futures on spreads; and options on portfolios. Sophisticated mathematical tools and high-speed computers are needed to calculate the price of these instruments and to determine their overall effect on the company. In this article we will focus on forward and futures contracts for managing foreign exchange risk. A forward is a contract to buy or sell currency at an agreed upon exchange rate at a specific date in the future. Futures are similar to forwards except that they’re traded on exchanges which specify settlement dates. Also we make some recommendations related to the foreign exchange risk-management practices that are useful for companies involved in international trade and for financial institutions interested in providing hedging products to these companies

Usage of Option Contracts for Foreign Exchange Risk Management

Today in Romania, in the context of the liberalization of the capital account and under a floating exchange rate (official is a managed floating currency regime established by National Bank of Romania) the foreign exchange rate is very volatile. In consequence the financial institutions, corporations and, especially, the importers and exporters have to deal with a big exposition of currency risk related with their activities. Financial institutions and corporations today must adopt new roles in order to compete successfully in the explosively evolving foreign exchange markets. The methods, instruments and techniques used to manage foreign exchange risk are more complex than ever before. The objective of our paper is to provide the techniques and insights needed to pinpoint opportunities and control risks. We will present the most modern practical methods for managing the currency risk: option strategies (spread, strangle, straddle, etc). Also we will present the advantage, the disadvantage and our opinions related with the use of currency derivatives instruments (especially currency strategies options), making a comparative analysis

VaR Methodology Application for Banking Currency Portfolios

VaR has become the standard measure that financial analysts use to quantify market risk. VaR measures can have many applications, such as in risk management, to evaluate the performance of risk takers and for regulatory requirements, and hence it is very important to develop methodologies that provide accurate estimates. In particular, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision at the Bank for International Settlements imposes to financial institutions such as banks and investment firms to meet capital requirements based on VaR estimates. In this paper we determine VaR for a banking currency portfolio and respect rules of National Bank of Romania regarding VaR report.Value at Risk (VaR); currency; bank; banking portfolio; foreign exchange risk.

Does Renewable Energy Drive Sustainable Economic Growth? Multivariate Panel Data Evidence for EU-28 Countries

Energy is crucial to economic progress, but the contemporary worldwide population increase that demands greater energy generated from conventional exhaustible resources, an energy price upsurge, and environmental concerns, imperils sustainable economic growth. Nevertheless, switching to renewable energy produced from naturally replenished resources promotes energy security, likewise addressing issues such as global warming and climate change. This paper aims at exploring the influence and causal relation between renewable energy, both overall and by type, and sustainable economic growth of European Union (EU)-28 countries for the period of 2003–2014. We notice that the mean share of renewable energy in the gross final energy consumption is 15%, while the mean share of renewable energy in transport fuel consumption is 3%, which are below the thresholds of 20% and 10%, respectively, as set by the EU Directive 2009/28/EC. By estimating panel data fixed-effects regression models, the results provide support for a positive influence of renewable energy overall, as well as by type, namely biomass, hydropower, geothermal energy, wind power, and solar energy on gross domestic product per capita. However, biomass energy shows the highest influence on economic growth among the rest of renewable energy types. In fact, a 1% increase of the primary production of solid biofuels increases GDP per capita by 0.16%. Besides, cointegrating regressions set on panel fully modified and dynamic ordinary least squares regressions confirm the positive influence related to the primary production of renewable energies on economic growth. A 1% increase in primary production of renewable energies increases GDP per capita by 0.05%–0.06%. However, the results of Granger causality based on panel vector error correction model indicate both in short-run and long-run a unidirectional causal relationship running from sustainable economic growth to the primary production of renewable energies, being supported the conservation hypothesis

A Cross-Country Empirical Study Towards the Impact of Following ISO Management System Standards on Euro-Area Economic Confidence

This study aims to examine the impact of following ISO management system standards on economic sentiment indicator (ESI) as proxy of economic agents’ general view concerning economic activity, for 21 European Union member states over 2005-2014. The empirical research comprises ISO standards with reference to management systems towards quality (ISO 9001, ISO 13485, ISO 16949), food safety (ISO 22000), environment (ISO 14001), and information security (ISO 27001). Panel data fixed effects regression models provide support for a positive impact of the quality management systems related to automotive industry, as well as information security management systems, on the ESI. Further, dynamic panel data approach by way of two-step system generalized method of moments emphasizes a positive influence of quality management systems standard for the medical device industry on Euro-area economic confidence, but a negative effect of food safety management systems. Also, ISO 9001, ISO 22000, and ISO 14001 Granger cause ESI