Crisis internacional. Impactos y respuestas de política económica en el Perú.

crisis económica internacional; política económica; Peru

Sobre el retraso cambiario y la repatriación de capitales en una economía dolarizada

There are two main positions to explain the exchange rate appreciation which occurred during President Fujimori's government. The first one state that this appreciation was caused by a restrictive monetary policy, while the second attributes it to a capital inflow originated by the fall of interest rates in U.S.A. The objective of this paper is to compare both hypotheses through a model which determines the nominal exchange rate and two domestic interest rates, one in domestic currency and the other in foreign currency, assuming imperfect capital mobility and the dollarization of the banking system.

Soirée théâtrale (5 octobre 1895)

Transcript of SOIRÉE THÉÂTRALE by Ernest Grenet-Dancourt, appearing in LE RAPPEL, 5 octobre 1895

El Perú desde 1990: El fin de la restricción externa

The main purpose of this paper is to emphasize the importance of the externa1 imbalances generated by the economic program of the Fujimori government, presenting the circumstances that explain why these imbalances have been accompanied, paradoxically, by a significative increase in foreign reserves. With this purpose in mind, two alternative explanations of exchange overvaluation and the implications of the dollarization of bank deposits are discussed. It is then argued that the "temporary withdrawal" of Peru from the Andean Group can be seen as another manifestation of the seriousness of the country's external imbalances, and, finally, the fiscal consequences of the way in which the commercial liberalization has been carried out are discussed.

Crisis internacional. Impactos y respuestas de política económica en el Perú.

crisis económica internacional; política económica; Peru

Flujos de capital, política monetaria y equilibrio externo

Unlike what happenned in most Latin American economies after the Mexican crisis, the Peruvian trade deficit kept on growing during 1995, in spite of the application of restrictive fiscal and monetary policies. In this paper, a model with free capital mobility, flexible exchange rates and a dollarized banking system is used to show a rather unusual result: that a restrictive monetary policy worsens the commercial deficit. In this institutional framework, capital controls are needed for the Central Bank to be able to regulate the total supply of domestic credit, which in time is a required condition for a restrictive monetary policy to improve the trade balance.

Los dos canales de transmisión de la política monetaria en una economía dolarizada

The purpose of this paper is to study the transmission mechanism of monetary policy under an institutional framework characterized by a dollarized banking system, a flexible exchange rate and free capital movements. The main result of this study is that a restrictive monetary policy can reactivate the economy if the share of their private debt in dollars is greater. Since a restrictive monetary policy increases the domestic interest rate and appreciates the exchange rate, the real burden of private debt can be reduced, and to increase the private expensive.

Fluctuaciones económicas y shocks externos, Perú 1950-1996

The main goal of this paper is to describe the characteristics of business cycle in Peru during 1950-1996, and to show the importance of external shocks for these economic fluctuations. The pattern of economic fluctuations in Peru, in particular the pattern of recessions, seems to be independent of the growth strategy followed (ISI or export of raw materials). The periods of recession are periods of accelerating inflation and of balance of payments crises. Five out of six of the identified recessions are associated with adverse external shocks.