An Error Correction Model for Forecasting Philippine Aggregate Electricity Consumption

This paper presents an error correction model for forecasting electricity consumption in the Philippines based on income, price, and temperature. The empirical evidence shows that there is a long-run positive and inelastic relationship between electricity consumption and income. We find that income, price, and temperature have significant short-run effects. Short-run demand is positive and inelastic with respect to income, negative and inelastic with respect to price, and positive and elastic with respect to temperature. Despite the small sample size, the model passes the standard diagnostic and parameter stability tests and performs well in within-sample and out-of-sample forecasting. It can be used not only for forecasting but also for analyzing, through simulations, the impacts on electricity consumption of changes in income, price, and temperature. The simulations confirm that, in the long run, electricity consumption is mainly driven by economic growth. Increasing GDP growth rate from 6% per year to 7% could increase electricity consumption at the end of 15 years by 10%. Although the effect of electricity price on electricity consumption is small (because of low price elasticity in absolute terms) and the effect of temperature change is also small (because annual average temperature change is small), their combined effects could add up and our simulation indicates that under very conservative assumptions, electricity consumption at the end of 15 years could rise further by 2%. Thus, it is important to include these variables in the simulations in order to account for their combined effects

Stalk Strenght and Sugar Content of 55 Dual-Purpose Sorghum Inbreds

In 2012, sorghum was approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as an “advanced” bioenergy feedstock in cases where both the grain and stover are both used for energy production (USEPA, 2012). It is desirable, therefore, to develop taller varieties of sorghum to increase biomass yields. However the taller the plant gets, the more susceptible it becomes to lodging, reducing grain yield in the end. Additionally the ability to characterize the storage stability of new sorghum varieties in terms of moisture content and free sugars content is advantageous. In this study, high throughput assays to characterize stalk strength based on rind penetrometer resistance (RPR) and sugar content based on an enzymatic assay of new varieties of sorghum were demonstrated. RPR measurements and estimates of glucose and sucrose contents of the leaves and the stalks were conducted on 40 dwarf grain sorghum inbreds and 15 photoperiod sensitive sorghum inbreds. Results showed stalk strengths of dwarf grain sorghum ranged from 2.43 to 7.72 kgf while those of photoperiod sensitive sorghum ranged from 2.72 to 10.50 kgf. Dwarf grain sorghum contained 0.1% to 6.9% and 0.3% to 3% glucose in stalks and leaves; 0 to 15% and 0 to 6.5% sucrose in stalks and leaves, respectively. Photoperiod sensitive sorghum contained 0.6% to 12% and 0.3 to 1.7% glucose in stalks and leaves, while sucrose levels in stalks and leaves were 0.3% to 17% and 0 to 3.1%, respectively. These results provide a framework for stalk quality assessment in selecting inbreds with stronger and higher free sugar content

An Error Correction Model for Forecasting Philippine Aggregate Electricity Consumption

This paper presents an error correction model for forecasting electricity consumption in the Philippines based on income, price, and temperature. The empirical evidence shows that there is a long-run positive and inelastic relationship between electricity consumption and income. We find that income, price, and temperature have significant short-run effects. Short-run demand is positive and inelastic with respect to income, negative and inelastic with respect to price, and positive and elastic with respect to temperature. Despite the small sample size, the model passes the standard diagnostic and parameter stability tests and performs well in within-sample and out-of-sample forecasting. It can be used not only for forecasting but also for analyzing, through simulations, the impacts on electricity consumption of changes in income, price, and temperature. The simulations confirm that, in the long run, electricity consumption is mainly driven by economic growth. Increasing GDP growth rate from 6% per year to 7% could increase electricity consumption at the end of 15 years by 10%. Although the effect of electricity price on electricity consumption is small (because of low price elasticity in absolute terms) and the effect of temperature change is also small (because annual average temperature change is small), their combined effects could add up and our simulation indicates that under very conservative assumptions, electricity consumption at the end of 15 years could rise further by 2%. Thus, it is important to include these variables in the simulations in order to account for their combined effects

FORMULATION AND EVALUATION OF CHRONOMODULATED PULSATILE THERAPEUTIC SYSTEM FOR EARLY MORNING SURGE IN BLOOD PRESSURE

Objective: The objective of this study was to design and developed a rupturable coating type of pulsatile press coated tablet, which releases drug early in the morning hours. This delivery system was helpful to control an early morning surge in Blood Pressure because cardiovascular events occur more frequently in the morning. This delivery system would be useful for the prevention of cardiovascular events in hypertensive patients.Methods: Initially core tablet was prepared by using Captopril HCl as a model drug, which is having Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibition activity and different concentration of cross carmellose sodium as a superdisintegrant by the direct compression method. Core tablet was press coated by using HPMC K4M and Ethyl Cellulose in different ratios as a press coating polymers.Results: Core tablet was evaluated for different evaluation parameters and the formulation which shows least disintegration time has been selected for further study. Dissolution profiles clearly indicate that Captopril released from the press-coated tablet depends on the amount of an HPMC/EC ratio used.Conclusion: From in-vitro dissolution study it was concluded that the lag time decreases with increase in concentration of HPMC K4M. When the concentration of hydrophilic polymer was increased, i.e. HPMC K4M, hydration property of the system increases, causing more rapid dissolution or rupturing of the external shell resulting in the reduction in lag time.Â

Evaluation of peroxyacetic acid, liquid buffered vinegar, and cultured dextrose fermentate as potential antimicrobial interventions for raw chicken livers

This study aimed to evaluate the use of peroxyacetic acid (PAA), buffered vinegar (BV), and cultured dextrose fermentate (CDF) to reduce Salmonella on artificially inoculated raw chicken livers, one of the most consumed offal around the world. Samples were inoculated with a 5-strain cocktail of poultry-borne Salmonella to obtain 106 CFU/g and immersed for 90 s with agitation in one of the following treatments: distilled water (control), 450 ppm PAA, 2.0% (w/v) BV, or 1.5% (w/v) CDF, prior to storing at 4oC. Salmonella was enumerated on XLD agar and monitored for 14 days. Data were analyzed using analysis of covariance. After immersion, there was a significant Salmonella reduction (p \u3c .05) with all treatments, including the control. PAA resulted in the greatest numerical reduction at 0.65 ± 0.12 log; however, there were no significant differences in the reductions among all other treatments (p \u3e .05). After 14 days, higher numerical reductions were observed for PAA, but only when compared to CDF. Although similar reductions (p \u3e .05) were noted after 14 days except for CDF, Salmonella counts were lowest in all timepoints when PAA was used. PAA and CDF inhibited the growth of aerobic bacteria until day 3 while BV inhibited the growth up to 7 days. Regarding objective color, chicken livers immersed in PAA became lighter, but the difference was not sustained over time. No differences were observed in redness or yellowness values across any treatments

Performance of two handheld NIR spectrometers to quantify crude protein of composite animal forage and feedstuff

Two handheld near infrared (NIR) spectrometers were used to quantify crude protein (CP) content of mixed forage and feedstuff composed of Sweet Bran, distiller’s grains, corn silage, and corn stalk. First was a transportable spectrometer, which measured in the visible and NIR ranges (320–2500 nm) with a spectral interval of 1 nm (H1). Second was a smartphone spectrometer, which measured from 900–1700 nm with a spectral interval of 4 nm (H2). Spectral data of 147 forage and feed samples were collected by both handheld instruments and split into calibration (n= 120) and validation (n= 27) sets. For H1, only absorbances in the NIR region (780–2500 nm) were used in the multivariate analyses, while for H2, absorbances in the second and third overtone regions (940–1660 nm) were used. Principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares (PLS) regression models were developed using mean-centered data that had been preprocessed using standard normal variate (SNV) or Savitzky-Golay first derivative (SG1) or second derivative (SG2) algorithm. PCA models showed two major groups—one with Sweet Bran and distillers grains, and the other with corn silage and corn stalk. Using H1 spectra, the PLS regression model that best predicted CP followed SG1 preprocessing. This model had low root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP= 2.22%) and high ratio of prediction to deviation (RPD= 5.24). With H2 spectra, the model best predicting CP was based on SG2 preprocessing, returning RMSEP= 2.05% and RPD= 5.74. These values were not practically different than those of H1, indicating similar performance of the two devices despite having absorbance measurements only in the second and third overtone regions with H2. The result of this study showed that both handheld NIR instruments can accurately measure forage and feed CP during screening, quality, and process control applications

Effects of high-pressure processing on cooked color and eating qualities of dark-cutting beef

High meat pH leads to an undercooked or an abnormal pink appearance in fully-cooked product. High-pressure processing (HPP) promotes protein denaturation. The objective was to evaluate the effects of HPP on cooked steak color and sensory attributes of dark-cutting beef. USDA Choice (mean pH = 5.5) and dark-cutting (mean pH = 6.3) strip loin sections were vacuum packaged and treated with 0 (no HPP), 300, 450, and 600 MPa of pressure for 90 s using chilled water. Steaks were randomly assigned to measure external cooked color, Warner- Bratzler shear force, and trained sensory panel. Applying 300 MPa of pressure improved ( P \u3c 0.05) redness of raw dark-cutting steaks compared with control. HPP treatments did not influence ( P \u3e 0.05) a∗ and chroma of the external cooked steak color. HPP treatments also did not affect ( P \u3e 0.05) initial juiciness, sustained juiciness, beef flavor intensity, or overall acceptability. However, 600 MPa made dark-cutting steaks tougher and lighter ( P \u3c 0.05) in appearance than all other treatments. In conclusion, low (300 MPa) and moderate (450 MPa) pressure levels improved raw steak redness without affecting the eating qualities of dark-cutting cooked steaks. HPP did not minimize the undercooked appearance commonly associated with high-pH beef

Methods of Alkaloids Synthesis

The investigation of plants used in traditional medicine in the early nineteenth century found alkaloids have developed into a group of natural products with exceptional structural and taxonomic diversity, as well as important chemical, biological, and medicinal importance. Since the early twentieth century, only a few routes have been thoroughly explored, and researchers have struggled to grasp their biogenesis and biosynthesis. Even for many pharmaceutically important alkaloids, there is still much to learn about how alkaloids are generated in nature, despite recent enzymatic efforts that have significantly advanced our understanding of this process. Certain aspects of empirically determined or speculated mechanistic routes of alkaloids creation are explored, with an emphasis on clinically relevant alkaloids

A Hybrid CFD-BEM Analysis of the Aerodynamic Performance of a Cut-Out Hollow Pipe Horizontal Axis Wind Turbine Blade

This study investigated the performance of a cut-out hollow pipe blade profile in small horizontal axis wind turbines (HAWT). Although this type of blade was expected to have losses in eff iciency, such blade prof ile can be easily manufactured locally, and could potentially have a lower cost compared to conventional blades with aerofoil prof iles. Numerical simulations using Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (URANS) were used to derive the aerodynamic characteristics of the cut-out hollow-pipe sections. The Blade Element Momentum (BEM) method was then used to investigate the performance of the HAWT’s rotor. Numerical results show that cut-out hollow-pipe sections have poor aerodynamic characteristics due to their simple geometry and crude design. BEM demonstrate that rotor with cut-out hollow pipe blades can still extract the kinetic energy of the wind but only at low tip speed ratios. Parametric studies show that the performance can be improved by altering the pitch of the blades and by adding additional blades to the rotor. Keywords