Tropical cyclone climatology, variability, and trends in the Tonga region, Southwest Pacific

The focus of several past tropical cyclone (TC) studies in the Southwest Pacific (SWP) had been primarily at the regional scale, with little or no attention to the local-scale TC activity (i.e., at the country level). With the growing coastal population in the South Pacific Island countries, as well as increasing threats from and exposure to climate extremes mostly affecting vulnerable communities, examining TC-related risks at the country level is more imperative now than before. This study catalogues for the first time the climatology, variability and trends of TCs affecting Nuku'alofa, the capital of Tonga using the Southwest Pacific Enhanced Archived for Tropical Cyclone (SPEArTC) dataset for the period between 1970 and 2019. The variability is examined in relation to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which is the major driver of the year-to-year variability of TC activity in the SWP. A total of 128 TC tracks affected the Tonga region over the study period, with a seasonal average of ∼2.6 TCs per year. Of these, about 50% occurred during the peak months of January and February, and ∼38.8% of the total were of hurricane intensity (Categories 3, 4 and 5). Although differences were found between the average number of TCs per year during El Niño, La Niña and ENSO-neutral events (∼2.9, ∼2.6 and ∼2.3, respectively), they were statistically insignificant. No significant long-term trends were found in the number of TCs, severe TCs, and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) over the period of study. The findings of this study will provide the information needed for disaster preparedness and TC predictions in Tonga

Clustering tropical cyclone genesis on ENSO timescales in the Southwest Pacific

Tropical cyclones (TCs) as a natural hazard pose a major threat and risk to the human population globally. This threat is expected to increase in a warming climate as the frequency of severe TCs is expected to increase. In this study, the influence of different monthly sea surface temperature (SST) patterns on the locations and frequency of tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) in the Southwest Pacific (SWP) region is investigated. Using principal component analysis and k-means clustering of monthly SST between 1970 and 2019, nine statistically different SST patterns are identified. Our findings show that the more prominent ENSO patterns such as the Modoki El Niño (i.e., Modoki I and Modoki II) and Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño impact the frequency and location of TCG significantly. Our results enhance the overall understanding of the TCG variability and the relationship between TCG and SST configurations in the SWP region. The results of this study may support early warning system in SWP by improving seasonal outlooks and quantification of the level of TC-related risks for the vulnerable Pacific Island communities.The first author is funded under the Pacific Excellence for Research and Innovation (PERSI) scholarship of the University of the South Pacific (USP)

Understanding ecosystem services for climate change resilience in coastal environments: a case study of low - canopy sub - tidal seagrass beds in Fiji

The Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are exposed to extreme wave conditions which are projected to be exacerbated by rising sea levels due to climate change, prompting the need for strategic planning of coastal communities and assets. Nature-based protection has been proposed as a sustainable solution to promote the resilience of coastal areas from physical impacts such as wave-induced erosion. In this study, we investigate the potential coastal protection service of shallow sub-tidal low-canopy seagrass beds, dominated by Halodule uninervis, on the rate of wave height and wave energy reduction on a barrier and fringing reefs. The data was collected using bottom-mounted pressure sensors to measure wave height and energy reduction as waves moved toward the shoreline across the seagrass beds. The results show that on average, the seagrass beds were able to reduce wave height by 30% and energy by 47% in both reef environments. These reduction rates are strongly influenced by water depth, seagrass characteristics and local reef conditions. Based on these results, seagrasses can strengthen the resilience of coastal shorelines to wave erosion, thus conserving healthy low-canopy seagrass habitats has measurable benefits for shoreline protection in Fiji and other PICs

Understanding ecosystem services for climate change resilience in coastal environments: a case study of low-canopy sub-tidal seagrass beds in Fiji

The Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are exposed to extreme wave conditions which are projected to be exacerbated by rising sea levels due to climate change, prompting the need for strategic planning of coastal communities and assets. Nature-based protection has been proposed as a sustainable solution to promote the resilience of coastal areas from physical impacts such as wave-induced erosion. In this study, we investigate the potential coastal protection service of shallow sub-tidal low-canopy seagrass beds, dominated by Halodule uninervis, on the rate of wave height and wave energy reduction on a barrier and fringing reefs. The data was collected using bottom-mounted pressure sensors to measure wave height and energy reduction as waves moved toward the shoreline across the seagrass beds. The results show that on average, the seagrass beds were able to reduce wave height by 30% and energy by 47% in both reef environments. These reduction rates are strongly influenced by water depth, seagrass characteristics and local reef conditions. Based on these results, seagrasses can strengthen the resilience of coastal shorelines to wave erosion, thus conserving healthy low-canopy seagrass habitats has measurable benefits for shoreline protection in Fiji and other PICs

Clustering tropical cyclone genesis on ENSO timescales in the Southwest Pacific

Tropical cyclones (TCs) as a natural hazard pose a major threat and risk to the human population globally. This threat is expected to increase in a warming climate as the frequency of severe TCs is expected to increase. In this study, the influence of different monthly sea surface temperature (SST) patterns on the locations and frequency of tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) in the Southwest Pacific (SWP) region is investigated. Using principal component analysis and k-means clustering of monthly SST between 1970 and 2019, nine statistically different SST patterns are identified. Our findings show that the more prominent ENSO patterns such as the Modoki El Niño (i.e., Modoki I and Modoki II) and Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño impact the frequency and location of TCG significantly. Our results enhance the overall understanding of the TCG variability and the relationship between TCG and SST configurations in the SWP region. The results of this study may support early warning system in SWP by improving seasonal outlooks and quantification of the level of TC-related risks for the vulnerable Pacific Island communities

Severe Flooding in the Atoll Nations of Tuvalu and Kiribati Triggered by a Distant Tropical Cyclone Pam

Tropical cyclone (TC) Pam formed in the central south Pacific in early March 2015. It reached a category 5 severity and made landfall or otherwise directly impacted several islands in Vanuatu, causing widespread damage and loss of life. It then moved along a southerly track between Fiji and New Caledonia, generating wind-waves of up to approximately 15 m, before exiting the region around March 15th. The resulting swell propagated throughout the central Pacific, causing flooding and damage to communities in Tuvalu, Kiribati and Wallis and Futuna, all over 1,000 km from TC Pam's track. The severity of these remote impacts was not anticipated and poorly forecasted. In this study, we use a total water level (TWL) approach to estimate the climatological conditions and factors contributing to recorded impacts at islands in Tuvalu and Kiribati. At many of the islands, the estimated TWL associated with Pam was the largest within the similar to 40-year period of available data, although not necessarily the largest in terms of estimated wave setup and runup; elevated regional sea-level also contributed to the TWL. The westerly wave direction likely contributed to the severity, as did the locally exceptional storm-swell event's long duration; the overall timing and duration of the event was modulated by astronomical tides. The findings of this study give impetus to the development, implementation and/or improvement of early warning systems capable of predicting such reef-island flooding. They also have direct implications for more accurate regional flood hazard analyses in the context of a changing climate, which is crucial for informing adaptation policies for the atolls of the central Pacific

Quantifying Mechanisms Responsible for Extreme Coastal Water Levels and Flooding during Severe Tropical Cyclone Harold in Tonga, Southwest Pacific

The South Pacific region is characterised by steep shelves and fringing coral reef islands. The lack of wide continental shelves that can dissipate waves makes Pacific Island countries vulnerable to large waves that can enhance extreme total water levels triggered by tropical cyclones (TCs). In this study, hindcasts of the waves and storm surge induced by severe TC Harold in 2020 on Tongatapu, Tonga’s capital island, were examined using the state-of-the-art hydrodynamic and wave models ADCIRC and SWAN. The contributions of winds, atmospheric pressure, waves, and wave-radiation-stress-induced setup to extreme total water levels were analysed by running the models separately and two-way coupled. The atmospheric pressure deficit contributed uniformly to the total water levels (~25%), while the wind surge was prominent over the shallow shelf (more than 75%). Wave setup became significant at locations with narrow fringing reefs on the western side (more than 75%). Tides were dominant on the leeward coasts of the island (50–75%). Storm surge obtained from the coupled run without tide was comparable with the observation. The wave contribution to extreme total water levels and inundation was analysed using XBEACH in non-hydrostatic mode. The model (XBEACH) was able to reproduce coastal inundation when compared to the observed satellite imagery after the event on a particular coastal segment severely impacted by coastal flooding induced by TC Harold. The coupled ADCIRC+SWAN underestimated total water levels nearshore on the reef flat and consequently inundation extent as infragravity waves and swash motion are not resolved by these models. The suite of models (ADCIRC+SWAN+XBEACH) used in this study can be used to support the Tonga Meteorological Service Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System

Distant-Source Swells Cause Coastal Inundation on Fiji's Coral Coast

Distant-source swells are known to regularly inundate low-lying Pacific Island communities. Here we examine extreme total water level (TWL) and inundation driven by a distant-source swell on Fiji's Coral Coast using observations and a phase-resolving wave model (XBeach). The objective of this study is to increase understanding of swell-driven hazards in fringing reef environments to identify the contribution of wave setup and infragravity waves to extreme TWL and to investigate coastal flooding during present and future sea levels. The maximum TWL near the shore was caused by compounding mechanisms, where tides, wave setup, infragravity waves, and waves in the sea swell frequencies contributed to the TWL. Waves and wave setup on the reef were modulated by offshore wave heights and tides with increased setup during low tide and increased wave heights during high tide. Numerical simulations were able to reproduce the mechanisms contributing to the extreme TWL and allowed an estimation of the inundation extent. Simulations of the same swell under the RCP8.5 sea-level rise scenario suggest the area of inundation would increase by 97% by 2100. A comparison between the numerical model, a multiple linear regression model, and two commonly used parametric models reveals that both XBeach and the linear regression model are better suited to reproduce the nearshore wave setup and TWL than the empirical equations. The results highlight the need for customized, site-specific coastal hazard assessments and inundation forecast systems in the South Pacific

Distant - source swells cause coastal inundation on Fiji’s Coral Coast

Distant-source swells are known to regularly inundate low-lying Pacific Island communities. Here we examine extreme total water level (TWL) and inundation, driven by a distant-source swell on Fiji’s Coral Coast using observations and a phase-resolving wave model (XBeach). The objective of this study is to increase understanding of swell-driven hazards in fringing reef environments, to identify the contribution of wave setup and infragravity waves to extreme TWL, and to investigate coastal flooding during present and future sea levels. The maximum TWL near the shore was caused by compounding mechanisms, where tides, wave setup, infragravity waves, and waves in the sea swell frequencies contributed to the TWL. Waves and wave setup on the reef were modulated by offshore wave heights and tides, with increased setup during low tide and increased wave heights during high tide. Numerical simulations were able to reproduce the mechanisms contributing to the extreme TWL and allowed an estimation of the inundation extent. Simulations of the same swell under the RCP8.5 sea-level rise scenario suggested the area of inundation would increase by 97% by 2100. A comparison between the numerical model, a multiple linear regression model, and two commonly used parametric models revealed that both XBeach and the linear regression model were better suited to reproduce the nearshore wave setup and TWL than the empirical equations. The results highlight the need for customized, site-specific coastal hazard assessments and inundation forecast systems in the South Pacific

Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Tropical Cyclones Affecting Tonga in the Southwest Pacific

The modulating influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on tropical cyclones (TCs) has been examined globally, regionally, and subregionally, but its impact on the island scale remains unclear. This study investigates how TC activity affecting the Tonga region is being modulated by the MJO, using the Southwest Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC) and the MJO index. In particular, this study investigates how the MJO modulates the frequency and intensity of TCs affecting the Tonga region relative to the entire study period (1970–2019; hereafter referred to as all years), as well as to different phases of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Results suggest that the MJO strongly modulates TC activity affecting the Tonga region. The frequency and intensity of TCs is enhanced during the active phases (phases six to eight) in all years, including El Niño and ENSO-neutral years. The MJO also strongly influences the climatological pattern of genesis of TCs affecting the Tonga region, where more (fewer) cyclones form in the active (inactive) phases of the MJO and more genesis points are clustered (scattered) near (away from) the Tonga region. There were three regression curves that best described the movement of TCs in the region matching the dominant steering mechanisms in the Southwest Pacific region. The findings of this study can provide climatological information for the Tonga Meteorological Service (TMS) and disaster managers to better understand the TC risk associated with the impact of the MJO on TCs affecting the Tonga region and support its TC early warning system