What Drives Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy with a Fixed Exchange Rate?

We decompose the Danish business cycle into ten structural shocks using an open-economy DSGE model with infrequent determination of prices and wages which we estimate with Bayesian techniques. Consistent with the Danish monetary policy regime, we formulate an imperfect peg on the foreign exchange rate and analyse the resulting monetary transmission mechanism. We find that the Danish business cycle is dominated by stochastic movements in the labour supply in the long term, while demand shocks play a major role in the short term. Remarkably, the role of technology is negligible, and foreign factors only contribute little to the Danish business cycle, especially in the long term. With respect to the estimation, we generally find believable estimates although the degree of price stickiness is remarkably high.open economy, peg, business cycles, Bayesian estimation

Assessing the Welfare Cost of a Fixed Exchange-Rate Policy

This paper performs a welfare analysis based on the hypothetical scenario that Denmark gave up its peg and started conducting monetary policy according to a Taylor rule. For this we rely on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy that was estimated on Danish data using Bayesian methods. We obtain the result that the gain in welfare is equivalent to a permanent increase of around 0.8 pct in the level of consumption. Examining a range of alternative scenarios does not change this conclusion, unless we assume a degree of policy errors under the Taylor rule that is substantially larger than those estimated by other studies.open economy; monetary policy; business cycles; welfare

Palynostratigraphy and palaeoenvironments of the Rævekløft, Gule Horn and Ostreaelv Formations (Lower–Middle Jurassic), Neill Klinter Group, Jameson Land, East Greenland

The Neill Klinter Group of Jameson Land, East Greenland contains rich and diverse palynomorph assemblages. Spores, pollen and freshwater algae dominate most of the samples, but dinoflagellate cysts and acritarchs also form important components. The ages suggested by the palynomorphs from the Rævekløft, Gule Horn and Ostreaelv Formations span the period from the Early Pliensbachian to the early Aalenian. The number of palynomorphs identified totals 136, including 83 miospore and 53 microplankton species; they are grouped into seven palynological assemblage zones. In general, there is good agreement between the palynological and sedimentological data, and the palynological data has refined the understanding of the depositional palaeoenvironments of the Neill Klinter Group. In some cases, the boundaries of the palynological assemblage zones are congruent with major sequence stratigraphic surfaces and the palynological data thus support the sequence stratigraphic interpretation. In other cases, however, regional correlation indicates that the zone boundaries cross important sequence stratigraphic surfaces, such as sequence boundaries; such behaviour is thought to reflect the facies-dependent nature of certain of the palynological assemblage zones. The pattern of palynological events in East Greenland has also been recognised on the mid-Norwegian shelf

Lithostratigraphy of the Cretaceous–Paleocene Nuussuaq Group, Nuussuaq Basin, West Greenland

The Nuussuaq Basin is the only exposed Cretaceous–Paleocene sedimentary basin in West Greenland and is one of a complex of linked rift basins stretching from the Labrador Sea to northern Baffin Bay. These basins developed along West Greenland as a result of the opening of the Labrador Sea in Late Mesozoic to Early Cenozoic times. The Nuussuaq Basin is exposed in West Greenland between 69°N and 72°N on Disko, Nuussuaq, Upernivik Ø, Qeqertarsuaq, Itsaku and Svartenhuk Halvø and has also been recorded in a number of shallow and deep wells in the region. The sediments are assigned to the more than 6 km thick Nuussuaq Group (new) which underlies the Palaeogene plateau basalts of the West Greenland Basalt Group. The sediment thickness is best estimated from seismic data; in the western part of the area, seismic and magnetic data suggest that the succession is at least 6 km and possibly as much as 10 km thick. The exposed Albian–Paleocene part of the succession testifies to two main episodes of regional rifting and basin development: an Early Cretaceous and a Late Cretaceous – Early Paleocene episode prior to the start of sea-floor spreading in mid-Paleocene time. This exposed section includes fan delta, fluviodeltaic, shelfal and deep marine deposits. The Nuussuaq Group is divided into ten formations, most of which have previously been only briefly described, with the exception of their macrofossil content. In ascending stratigraphic order, the formations are: the Kome Formation, the Slibestensfjeldet Formation (new), the Upernivik Næs Formation, the Atane Formation (including four new members – the Skansen, Ravn Kløft, Kingittoq and Qilakitsoq Members – and one new bed, the Itivnera Bed), the Itilli Formation (new, including four new members, the Anariartorfik, Umiivik, Kussinerujuk and Aaffarsuaq Members), the Kangilia Formation (including the redefined Annertuneq Conglomerate Member and the new Oyster–Ammonite Conglomerate Bed), the Quikavsak Formation (including three new members: the Tupaasat, Nuuk Qiterleq and Paatuutkløften Members), the Agatdal Formation, the Eqalulik Formation (new, including the Abraham Member), and the Atanikerluk Formation (including five members: the Naujât, Akunneq (new), Pingu (new), Umiussat and Assoq (new) Members)

A revised lithostratigraphy for the Palaeogene – lower Neogene of the Danish North Sea

Intense drilling activity following the discovery of the Siri Field in 1995 has resulted in an improved understanding of the siliciclastic Palaeogene succession in the Danish North Sea sector (Fig. 1). Many of the new wells were drilled in the search for oil reservoirs in sand bodies of Paleocene–Eocene age. The existing lithostratigraphy was based on data from a generation of wells that were drilled with deeper stratigraphic targets, with little or no interest in the overlying Palaeogene sediments, and thus did not adequately consider the significance of the Palaeogene sandstone units in the Danish sector. In order to improve the understanding of the distribution, morphology and age of the Palaeogene sediments, in particular the economically important sandstone bodies, a detailed study of this succession in the Danish North Sea has recently been undertaken. An important aim of the project was to update the lithostratigraphic framework on the basis of the new data. The project was carried out at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) with participants from the University of Aarhus, DONG E&P and Statoil Norway, and was supported by the Danish Energy Agency. Most scientific results cannot be released until September 2006, but a revised lithostratigraphic scheme may be published prior to that date. Formal definition of new units and revision of the lithostratigraphy are in preparation. All of the widespread Palaeogene mudstone units in the North Sea have previously been formally established in Norwegian or British wells, and no reference sections exist in the Danish sector. As the lithology of a stratigraphic unit may vary slightly from one area to another, Danish reference wells have been identified during the present project, and the lithological descriptions of the formations have been expanded to include the appearance of the units in the Danish sector. Many of the sandstone bodies recently discovered in the Danish sector have a limited spatial distribution and were sourced from other areas than their contemporaneous counterparts in the Norwegian and British sectors. These sandstone bodies are therefore defined as new lithostratigraphic units in the Danish sector, and are assigned Danish type and reference sections. There is a high degree of lithological similarity between the Palaeogene–Neogene mudstone succession from Danish offshore boreholes and that from onshore exposures and boreholes, and some of the mudstone units indeed seem identical. However, in order to acknowledge the traditional distinction between offshore and onshore stratigraphic nomenclature, the two sets of nomenclature are kept separate herein. In recent years oil companies operating in the North Sea have developed various in-house lithostratigraphic charts for the Paleocene–Eocene sand and mudstone successions in the Danish and Norwegian sectors. A number of informal lithostratigraphic units have been adopted and widely used. In the present project, these units have been formally defined and described, maintaining their original names whenever feasible, with the aim of providing an unequivocal nomenclature for the Palaeogene – lower Neogene succession in the Danish sector. It has not been the intention to establish a sequence stratigraphic model for this succession in the North Sea; the reader is referred to the comprehensive works of Michelsen (1993), Neal et al. (1994), Mudge & Bujak (1994, 1996a, b), Michelsen et al. (1995, 1998), Danielsen et al. (1997) and Rasmussen (2004)

Greenland Geothermal Heat Flow Database and Map (Version 1)

We compile and analyze all available geothermal heat flow measurements collected in and around Greenland into a new database of 419 sites and generate an accompanying spatial map. This database includes 290 sites previously reported by the International Heat Flow Commission (IHFC), for which we now standardize measurement and metadata quality. This database also includes 129 new sites, which have not been previously reported by the IHFC. These new sites consist of 88 offshore measurements and 41 onshore measurements, of which 24 are subglacial. We employ machine learning to synthesize these in situ measurements into a gridded geothermal heat flow model that is consistent across both continental and marine areas in and around Greenland. This model has a native horizontal resolution of 55ĝ€¯km. In comparison to five existing Greenland geothermal heat flow models, our model has the lowest mean geothermal heat flow for Greenland onshore areas. Our modeled heat flow in central North Greenland is highly sensitive to whether the NGRIP (North GReenland Ice core Project) elevated heat flow anomaly is included in the training dataset. Our model's most distinctive spatial feature is pronounced low geothermal heat flow (<ĝ€¯40ĝ€¯mWĝ€¯m-2) across the North Atlantic Craton of southern Greenland. Crucially, our model does not show an area of elevated heat flow that might be interpreted as remnant from the Icelandic plume track. Finally, we discuss the substantial influence of paleoclimatic and other corrections on geothermal heat flow measurements in Greenland. The in situ measurement database and gridded heat flow model, as well as other supporting materials, are freely available from the GEUS Dataverse (10.22008/FK2/F9P03L; Colgan and Wansing, 2021).publishedVersionPeer reviewe

The Jurassic of Denmark and Greenland: Palynostratigraphy and palaeoenvironments of the Rævekløft, Gule Horn and Ostreaelv Formations (Lower–Middle Jurassic), Neill Klinter Group, Jameson Land, East Greenland

The Neill Klinter Group of Jameson Land, East Greenland contains rich and diverse palynomorph assemblages. Spores, pollen and freshwater algae dominate most of the samples, but dinoflagellatecysts and acritarchs also form important components. The ages suggested by the palynomorphs from the Rævekløft, Gule Horn and Ostreaelv Formations span the period from the Early Pliensbachian to the early Aalenian. The number of palynomorphs identified totals 136,including 83 miospore and 53 microplankton species; they are grouped into seven palynological assemblage zones.In general, there is good agreement between the palynological and sedimentological data, and the palynological data has refined the understanding of the depositional palaeoenvironments ofthe Neill Klinter Group. In some cases, the boundaries of the palynological assemblage zones are congruent with major sequence stratigraphic surfaces and the palynological data thus supportthe sequence stratigraphic interpretation. In other cases, however, regional correlation indicates that the zone boundaries cross important sequence stratigraphic surfaces, such as sequenceboundaries; such behaviour is thought to reflect the facies-dependent nature of certain of the palynological assemblage zones. The pattern of palynological events in East Greenland has alsobeen recognised on the mid-Norwegian shelf