Use of a geographic information system to track smelter-related lead exposures in children: North Lake Macquarie, Australia, 1991–2002

BACKGROUND: To determine patterns of childhood lead exposure in a community living near a lead and zinc smelter in North Lake Macquarie, Australia between 1991 and 2002. METHODS: An analysis of serial blood lead levels (BLL) of children less than 13 years of age in North Lake Macquarie participating in voluntary blood lead screening. Distance to the smelter and soil lead concentration of the child's place of residence was calculated. Categorical analysis of BLL by residential distance from smelter, residential soil lead concentration, age and year of sample was calculated. Linear regression models were fit for blood lead levels against residential distance from smelter, the log of residential soil lead concentration, age and year of BLL sample. RESULTS: Geometric mean BLLs were statistically significantly higher for distances less than 1.5 kilometres from the smelter and for residential soil lead concentrations greater than 300 ppm. Yearly BLLs since 1995 were statistically significantly lower than for preceding years, with an average decrease of 0.575 μg/dL per year since 1991. BLLs are statistically significantly higher for children whose age is 1 to 3 years old. Linear regression modelling of BLL predicted a statistically significant decrease in BLL of 3.0831 μg/dL per kilometre from the smelter and a statistically significant increase in BLL of 0.25 μg/dL per log of lead in residential soil. The model explained 28.2% of the variation in BLL. CONCLUSION: Residential distance to the smelter, log of residential soil lead concentration, child's age and year of BLL sample are statistically significant factors for predicting elevated BLLs in children living near a North Lake Macquarie lead smelter

Estimating the Disease Burden of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Virus Infection in Hunter New England, Northern New South Wales, Australia, 2009

Introduction: On May 26, 2009, the first confirmed case of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus (pH1N1) infection in Hunter New England (HNE), New South Wales (NSW), Australia (population 866,000) was identified. We used local surveillance data to estimate pH1N1-associated disease burden during the first wave of pH1N1 circulation in HNE. Methods: Surveillance was established during June 1-August 30, 2009, for: 1) laboratory detection of pH1N1 at HNE and NSW laboratories, 2) pH1N1 community influenza-like illness (ILI) using an internet survey of HNE residents, and 3) pH1N1-associated hospitalizations and deaths using respiratory illness International Classification of Diseases 10 codes at 35 HNE hospitals and mandatory reporting of confirmed pH1N1-associated hospitalizations and deaths to the public health service. The proportion of pH1N1 positive specimens was applied to estimates of ILI, hospitalizations, and deaths to estimate disease burden. Results: Of 34,177 specimens tested at NSW laboratories, 4,094 (12%) were pH1N1 positive. Of 1,881 specimens from patients evaluated in emergency departments and/or hospitalized, 524 (26%) were pH1N1 positive. The estimated number of persons with pH1N1-associated ILI in the HNE region was 53,383 (range 37,828–70,597) suggesting a 6.2% attack rate (range 4.4–8.2%). An estimated 509 pH1N1-associated hospitalizations (range 388–630) occurred (reported: 184), and up to 10 pH1N1-associated deaths (range 8–13) occurred (reported: 5). The estimated case hospitalization ratio was 1% and case fatality ratio was 0.02%. Discussion: The first wave of pH1N1 activity in HNE resulted in symptomatic infection in a small proportion of the population, and the number of HNE pH1N1-associated hospitalizations and deaths is likely higher than officially reported

A structured framework for improving outbreak investigation audits

Outbreak investigation is a core function of public health agencies. Suboptimal outbreak investigation endangers both public health and agency reputations. While audits of clinical medical and nursing practice are conducted as part of continuous quality improvement, public health agencies rarely make systematic use of structured audits to ensure best practice for outbreak responses, and there is limited guidance or policy to guide outbreak audit. A framework for prioritising which outbreak investigations to audit, an approach for conducting a successful audit, and a template for audit trigger questions was developed and trialled in four foodborne outbreaks and a respiratory disease outbreak in Australia. The following issues were identified across several structured audits: the need for clear definitions of roles and responsibilities both within and between agencies, improved communication between agencies and with external stakeholders involved in outbreaks, and the need for development of performance standards in outbreak investigations - particularly in relation to timeliness of response. Participants considered the audit process and methodology to be clear, useful, and non-threatening. Most audits can be conducted within two to three hours, however, some participants felt this limited the scope of the audit. The framework was acceptable to participants, provided an opportunity for clarifying perceptions and enhancing partnership approaches, and provided useful recommendations for approaching future outbreaks. Future challenges include incorporating feedback from broader stakeholder groups, for example those of affected cases, institutions and businesses; assessing the quality of a specific audit; developing training for both participants and facilitators; and building a central capacity to support jurisdictions embarking on an audit. The incorporation of measurable performance criteria or sharing of benchmark performance criteria will assist in the standardisation of outbreak investigation audit and further quality improvement

The Adolescent Cardio-Renal Intervention Trial (AdDIT): retinal vascular geometry and renal function in adolescents with type 1 diabetes

Aims/hypothesis We examined the hypothesis that elevation in urinary albumin creatinine ratio (ACR) in adolescents with type 1 diabetes is associated with abnormal retinal vascular geometry (RVG) phenotypes. Methods A cross-sectional study at baseline of the relationship between ACR within the normoalbuminuric range and RVG in 963 adolescents aged 14.4 ± 1.6 years with type 1 diabetes (median duration 6.5 years) screened for participation in AdDIT. A validated algorithm was used to categorise log10 ACR into tertiles: upper tertile ACR was defined as ‘high-risk’ for future albuminuria and the lower two tertiles were deemed ‘low-risk’. RVG analysis, using a semi-automated computer program, determined retinal vascular calibres (standard and extended zones) and tortuosity. RVG measures were analysed continuously and categorically (in quintiles: Q1–Q5) for associations with log10 ACR and ACR risk groups. Results Greater log10 ACR was associated with narrower vessel calibres and greater tortuosity. The high-risk group was more likely to have extended zone vessel calibres in the lowest quintile (arteriolar Q1 vs Q2–Q5: OR 1.67 [95% CI 1.17, 2.38] and venular OR 1.39 [0.98, 1.99]) and tortuosity in the highest quintile (Q5 vs Q1–Q4: arteriolar OR 2.05 [1.44, 2.92] and venular OR 2.38 [1.67, 3.40]). The effects of retinal vascular calibres and tortuosity were additive such that the participants with the narrowest and most tortuous vessels were more likely to be in the high-risk group (OR 3.32 [1.84, 5.96]). These effects were independent of duration, blood pressure, BMI and blood glucose control. Conclusions/interpretation Higher ACR in adolescents is associated with narrower and more tortuous retinal vessels. Therefore, RVG phenotypes may serve to identify populations at high risk of diabetes complications during adolescence and well before onset of clinical diabetes complications.This work was supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (NHMRC 632521), JDRF (08-2007-902), Diabetes UK (DUK PO NO 2177 BDA:RD06/003341) and the British Heart Foundation

Cardiac autonomic dysfunction is associated with high-risk albumin-to-creatinine ratio in young adolescents with type 1 diabetes in AdDIT (adolescent type 1 diabetes cardio-renal interventional trial).

OBJECTIVE: This study examined the association between cardiac autonomic dysfunction and high albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) in adolescents with type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Adolescents recruited as part of a multicenter screening study (n = 445, 49% female, aged 10-17 years, mean duration 6.9 years; mean HbA1c 8.4%, 68 mmol/mol) underwent a 10-min continuous electrocardiogram recording for heart rate variability analysis. Time-domain heart rate variability measures included baseline heart rate, SD of the R-R interval (SDNN), and root mean squared difference of successive R-R intervals (RMSSD). Spectral analysis included sympathetic (low-frequency) and parasympathetic (high-frequency) components. Standardized ACR were calculated from six early morning urine collections using an established algorithm, reflecting age, sex, and duration, and stratified into ACR tertiles, where the upper tertile reflects higher nephropathy risk. RESULTS: The upper-tertile ACR group had a faster heart rate (76 vs. 73 bpm; P < 0.01) and less heart rate variability (SDNN 68 vs. 76 ms, P = 0.02; RMSSD 63 vs. 71 ms, P = 0.04). HbA1c was 8.5% (69 mmol/mmol) in the upper tertile vs. 8.3% (67 mmol/mol) in the lower tertiles (P = 0.07). In multivariable analysis, upper-tertile ACR was associated with faster heart rate (β = 2.5, 95% CI 0.2-4.8, P = 0.03) and lower RMSSD (β = -9.5, 95% CI -18.2 to -0.8, P = 0.03), independent of age and HbA1c. CONCLUSIONS: Adolescents at potentially higher risk for nephropathy show an adverse cardiac autonomic profile, indicating sympathetic overdrive, compared with the lower-risk group. Longitudinal follow-up of this cohort will further characterize the relationship between autonomic and renal dysfunction and the effect of interventions in this population.National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia (NHMRC) 632521, Australasian Paediatric Endocrine Group (APEG), Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation, British Heart Foundation, Diabetes UK.This is the accepted manuscript. The final version is available at http://care.diabetesjournals.org/content/early/2015/01/01/dc14-1848

Voting for Direct Democracy: Evidence from a Unique Popular Initiative in Bavaria

We analyze a constitutional change in the German State of Bavaria where citizens, not politicians, granted themselves more say in politics at the local level through a constitutional initiative at the state level. This institutional setting allows us to focus on revealed preferences for direct democracy and to identify factors which explain this preference. Empirical results suggests support for direct democracy is rather related to dissatisfaction with representative democracy in general than with an elected governing party

COVID-19 in Multiple Sclerosis: Clinically reported outcomes from the UK Multiple Sclerosis Register

Background: In March 2020, the United Kingdom Multiple Sclerosis Register (UKMSR) established an electronic case return form, designed collaboratively by MS neurologists, to record data about COVID-19 infections in people with MS (pwMS). Objectives: Examine how hospital admission and mortality are affected by disability, age and disease modifying treatments (DMTs) in people with Multiple Sclerosis with COVID-19. Methods: Anonymised data were submitted by clinical teams. Regression models were tested for predictors of hospitalisation and mortality outcomes. Separate analyses compared the first and second ‘waves’ of the pandemic. Results: Univariable analysis found hospitalisation and mortality were associated with increasing age, male gender, comorbidities, severe disability, and progressive MS; severe disability showed the highest magnitude of association. Being on a DMT was associated with a small, lower risk. Multivariable analysis found only age and male gender were significant. Post hoc analysis demonstrated that factors were significant for hospitalisation but not mortality. In the second wave, hospitalisation and mortality were lower. Separate models of the first and second wave using age and gender found they had a more important role in the second wave. Conclusions: Features associated with poor outcome in COVID-19 are similar to other populations and being on a DMT was not found to be associated with adverse outcomes, consistent with smaller studies. Once in hospital, no factors were predictive of mortality. Reassuringly, mortality appears lower in the second wave