The Effect of Shill Bidding upon Prices: Experimental Evidence

This paper explores, through a series of experiments, the effect of shill bidding upon revenues and prices in auctions. We study the practice of shill bidding in a common value framework. Our findings are consistent with the theoretical prediction that, if bidders are aware of the possibility of seller participation in an auction, shill bidding lowers profits on average. Shill bidding can alleviate the problem of the winner's curse by lowering the price and it can, thus, provide benefits to the bidders. Finally, even though there were too many bidders that submitted bids in these auctions, the number of entrants was not affected by the possibility of seller participation, which is also consistent with the theory.Auctions, Experiment, Shill Bidding, Entry

Geographic concentration and firm survival

If localization economies are present, firms within denser industry concentrations should exhibit higher levels of performance than more isolated firms. Nevertheless, research in industrial organization that has focused on the influences on firm survival has largely ignored the potential effects from agglomeration. Recent studies in urban and regional economics suggests that agglomeration effects may be very localized. Analyses of industry concentration at the MSA or county-level may fail to detect important elements of intra-industry firm interaction that occur at the sub-MSA level. Using a highly detailed dataset on firm locations and characteristics for Texas, this paper analyses agglomeration effects on firm survival over geographic areas as small as a single mile radius. We find that greater firm density within very close proximity (within 1 mile) of firms in the same industry increases mortality rates while greater concentration over larger distances reduces mortality rates.Firm Survival, Agglomeration, Localization, and Knowledge Externalities

Research universities and regional high-tech firm start-ups and exit

If localized knowledge spillovers are present in the university setting, higher rates of both start-ups and/or survival than in the broader economy would be observed in areas that are geographically proximate to the university. Using a fully-disclosed Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages for Texas for the years 1999:3-2006:2, this paper analyzes start-ups and exit rates for high-tech firms in Texas. We find that there is evidence that the presence of a research institution will affect the likelihood of technology start-ups. However, results suggest that geographic proximity to knowledge centers does not reduce hazard rates.Entry and Survival, R & D, Regional, Urban, and Rural Analyses

The Effect of Information on the Bidding and Survival of Entrants in Procurement Auctions

In government procurement auctions of construction contracts, entrants are typically less informed and bid more aggressively than incumbent firms. This bidding behavior makes them more susceptible to losses a¤ecting their prospect of survival. In April of 2000, the Oklahoma Department of Transportation started releasing the internal cost estimates to complete highway construction projects. Using newly developed quantile regression approaches, this paper examines the impact of the policy change on aggressive entrants. First, we find that the information release eliminates the bidding differential between entrants and incumbents attributed to informational asymmetries. Second, we argue that the policy change a¤ects the prospects of survival of entrants in the market. We find that those who used to exit the market relatively soon are now staying 37 percent longer, while at the median level bidding duration increased by roughly 68 percent. The policy has the potential to encourage entry in government procurement auctions and thus increase competition.Entry; Survival; Information Release; Procurement Auctions

What blows in with the wind?

The shift toward renewable forms of energy for electricity generation in the electricity generation industry has clear implications for the spatial distribution of generating plant. Traditional forms of generation are typically located close to the load or population centers, while wind and solar-powered generation must be located where the energy source is found. In the case of wind, this has meant significant new investment in wind plant in primarily rural areas that have been in secular economic decline. This paper investigates the localized economic impacts of the rapid increase in wind power capacity at the county level in Texas. Unlike Input-Output impact analysis that relies primarily on levels of inputs to estimate gross impacts, we use traditional econometric methods to estimate net localized impacts in terms of employment, personal income, and property tax base. While we find evidence that both direct and indirect employment impacts are modest, significant increases in per capita income accompany wind power development. County and school property tax rolls also realize important benefits from the local siting of utility scale wind power

Disadvantaged business enterprise goals in government procurement contracting: an analysis of bidding behavior and costs

Programs that encourage the participation of disadvantaged business enterprises (DBE) as subcontractors have been a part of government procurement auctions for over three decades. In this paper, we examine the impact of a program that requires prime contractors to subcontract out a portion of a highway procurement project to DBE firms. We study how DBE subcontracting requirements affect bidding behavior in federally funded projects. Within a symmetric independent private value framework, we use the equilibrium bidding function to obtain the cost distribution of firms undertaking projects either with or without subcontracting goals. We then use nonparametric estimation methodsto uncover and compare the cost of firms bidding on a class of asphalt projects related to surface treatment in Texas. The analysis shows little differences in the cost structure between auctions that have subcontracting goals and those that do not.Auctions ; Government purchasing

The impact of timing on bidding behavior in procurement auctions of contracts with private costs

We provide a comparison of bidding behavior between multi-round and single-round auctions considering bid lettings for asphalt construction contracts. Using a reduced-form difference-in-difference approach as well as the nonparametric estimation technique proposed by Racine and Li (2004) we find that, bidding is more aggressive in a sequential multi-round setting than in a simultaneous single-round format. We explore potential causes for the bidding difference across formats related to synergies and level of bidder participation.Multi-unit auctions, Procurement auctions

Project modifications and bidding in highway procurement auctions

This paper examines bidding behavior in a setting where post-bid-letting project modifications occur. These modifications change both the costs and payouts to the winning contractor, making the contract incomplete. Recent empirical research shows that bidders incorporate the likelihood of such changes in contracts into their bidding strategies. In particular, contractors may adjust bids to compensate for renegotiation, resequencing of tasks, and other costs associated with project modifications. This paper extends this literature by examining bidding behavior and project modifications in Texas, where there has been a significant shift in change order policy. Specifically, Texas sharply reduced its spending on change orders starting in the mid-2000s. In the period before the change in policy, we estimate that project modifications raised bidder costs by 4 percent to 6 percent. In the period after the change in policy, the impact of project modifications on bidder costs is estimated to be closer to 1 percent

Entry and exit patterns of "toxic" firms

We pair an establishment-level dataset from Texas with public information available in the Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) to evaluate the standing of dirty industries in Texas census tracts with a focus on environmental justice concerns. The share of nonwhite residents in a tract is positively correlated with the number of TRI-reporting firms and an inverse-U-shaped relationship characterizes the number of TRI-reporting firms and a tract's median income. Even after controlling for factor prices and other covariates which might drive firm location decisions, entrants that report to the TRI are more likely to locate in areas with a higher share of nonwhite residents. Firms that report to the TRI are also more likely to enter areas with a low share college graduates. In contrast, the number of entrants from industries which do not have TRI reporters is negatively related to the percent of nonwhite residents in a tract. Firms in these non-reporting industries are also more likely to enter areas with a high share of college graduates. Polluters appear to agglomerate, raising concerns about both chemical releases being concentrated in certain tracts and also affecting nonwhite-dense areas disproportionately. The strength of these effects often depend on an urban/rural classification, with rural areas experiencing the most pronounced concerns. Moreover, TRI-reporting firms are less likely to exit the market relative to their peers which operate in the same industry but do not need to file TRI reports, suggesting releases may affect a region in the long-run

Research universities and regional high-tech firm start-ups and exit

If localized knowledge spillovers are present in the university setting, higher rates of both start-ups and/or survival than in the broader economy would be observed in areas that are geographically proximate to the university. Using a fully-disclosed Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages for Texas for the years 1999:3-2006:2, this paper analyzes start-ups and exit rates for high-tech firms in Texas. We find that there is evidence that the presence of a research institution will affect the likelihood of technology start-ups. However, results suggest that geographic proximity to knowledge centers does not reduce hazard rates