Predictive Safety Management System Development

Safety management systems are used to systematically manage safety risks. The paper describes and explains safety management systems in the field of aviation. Three aviation safety management methodologies are presented in the paper: reactive, proactive, and predictive. The aim is to show how safety management systems operate in each of the three methodologies. The focus of the paper is on predictive safety management methodology, its advantages, and potential uses. An overview of predictive methods used in the aviation industry is also provided. The research collected information on each safety management methodology, and revealed correlations between them, improving our understanding of safety management systems in general. Based on research described in the paper, the author proposes the development of a more advanced safety management system, i.e. a predictive safety management system which would entail the development of an expanded and well-organised safety database, as well as the use of predictive (forecasting) methods to identify potential and emerging hazards, trends and behaviour patterns

Simulating Behavior Pattern of Key Performance Indicators to Improve Organization’s Safety Performance in Maritime Transport

Safety performance management is at the core of safety management system (SMS) in any organization. Managing organization\u27s safety performance in maritime transport is achieved through the identification of key performance indicators (KPIs), which are used to monitor and measure safety performance. Aim of this paper is to determine how behavior pattern of key performance indicators (KPIs) in the organization, can be simulated. Methods used for this research include methods of gathering, describing, and analyzing key performance indicators data of sample organization, as well as statistics, causal modeling, and simulation. Results show behavior pattern of key performance indicators (KPIs) in the organization due to causal impact of certain key performance indicator. In conclusion, the simulation showed how causal modeling techniques can be useful to simulate behavior pattern of key performance indicators (KPIs) in the organization in order to improve organization’s safety performance

Concept of the Decision-Making Model for Establishment of Dry Port on The Sample of Rijeka Seaport

Nowadays, seaports face many problems. One of the major problems is the increase in container traffic, and due to this there are problems such as the lack of space at the seaport terminals, and the congestion on routes serving those terminals, i.e. increase of bottlenecks in land transport systems serving the seaports. For some seaports, the weakest links in their transport chains are exit gates where congested roads and inadequate rail links cause delays and increase transport costs. Strategic solution would be the implementation of railways and/or improved land-based intermodal terminals, i.e. dry ports serving seaports. This paper presents a decision-making model on the necessity to establish a dry port for serving seaport in order to increase the capacity or space of the seaport, accelerate the technological process and reduce the rush on the routes

The Influence of Dry Port Establishment on Regional Development Through Regional Development Index

The goal of the Regional Development Policy of the Republic of Croatia is to contribute to the identification of priority activities that would strengthen the development potential of all Croatian regions, reduce regional disparities, strengthen and build the development potential of less developed parts of the country. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the effect of establishment of a new dry port on regional development through increased development index. Details of regional development index calculation are presented in the paper, and an example of the calculation containing the actual data for the regions/counties of the Republic of Croatia is given. A simulation of regional development index calculation in case of establishment of a new dry port was run and presented. The simulation of development index increase as a result of dry port establishment in the town of Vinkovci in the Vukovar-Srijem County was conducted. Vinkovci was chosen primarily owing to its favourable geographic position in the TEN-T network connecting Croatia with various destinations through the Orient East-Med Corridor or Rhine-Danube Corridor, existing infrastructure that can be used for new dry port terminal, and the fact that Vukovar-Srijem is one of the most undeveloped regions (counties) in Croatia. The results have shown that the regional development index would increase in the region/ county of dry port establishment. The contribution of this research is that the paper proves the influence of dry port establishment on regional development, with emphasis on the number of newly employed persons and the effect thereof on regional development index indicators

Simulation Analysis of Seaport Rijeka Operations with Established Dry Port

Seaport Rijeka is the largest seaport in Croatia. It specializes in transport of cargo, with the primary activities of loading, unloading, storage and transport of general cargo, timber, bulk cargo, livestock, containers, and other cargo at five specialized terminals. It is focused on increasing the quality of services and the competitiveness of the transport routes in Croatia. Due to its favourable position on the TEN-T network, Seaport Rijeka provides the shortest maritime connection between the countries of Central and Eastern Europe as well as the overseas countries. In the past 20 years Seaport Rijeka keeps record of continuous growth in container traffic. Due to increasing demand in container traffic, it seeks for the solutions to expand. One of the possible solutions that would satisfy the increasing demand in container traffic is establishing a dry port. Dry port is an inland intermodal terminal which has direct connection to the seaport by road or rail and its main purpose is to provide logistic activities and transport to inland destinations. Dry ports have many advantages, faster transport of cargo from seaports, use of more efficient modes of transport, providing facilities for the storage and consolidation of goods, the maintenance of road or rail freight carriers, customs services, etc. In the case of container transport, dry ports can be used to outsource the logistic activities of transport process, away from congested area of seaports. Due to the fact that Seaport Rijeka is reaching the limits of its capacity, one of possible solutions of its expansion is establishing a dry port. The focus of this paper is to prove that establishing a dry port would speed up the transport process of containers between Seaport Rijeka and its destinations. Due to this hypothesis, four simulations were made. First simulation shows the transport process in the existing set-up of the Seaport Rijeka. Second, third and fourth simulation shows the transport process in the future possible set-up of the Seaport Rijeka with established dry port in Miklavlje, Zagreb or Vinkovci

Methods to detect and prevent fatigue in ageing aircraft structures

Rad je usmjeren na metode koje mogu otkriti i spriječiti zamor materijala i starenje zrakoplovnih struktura. Cilj rada je analizirati zamor materijala i njegov utjecaj na strukture zrakoplova. Utjecaj i značaj zamora je istaknut u opisima nesreća koje su uzrokovane izravno zamorom materijala zrakoplovnih struktura. Najvažnije i najčešće korištene metode za otkrivanje i sprječavanje zamora materijala u strukturama zrakoplova su metode koncepta beskonačnog životnog vijeka, metode koncepta konačnog životnog vijeka, ne-destruktivne metode ispitivanja, metode hladne ekspanzije, metode testiranja ugrađenom opremom, metode praćenja stanja zrakoplovne strukture i metode otkrivanja korozije koja uzrokuje zamor materijala.The paper is focused on the methods which detect and prevent material fatigue in ageing aircraft structures. The goal is to analyse material fatigue and its impact on aircraft structures. The significance and impact of fatigue is given in description of accidents that were caused directly by material fatigue of the aircraft structures. The most important and most commonly used methods to detect and prevent fatigue in aircraft structures are infinite lifetime concept methods, finite lifetime concept methods, non-destructive testing methods, cold expansion methods, built-in testing equipment, structural health monitoring methods and methods to detect corrosion fatigue

Determining Optimal Dry Port Location for Seaport Rijeka Using AHP Decision-Making Methodology

Seaport Rijeka is located and connected to the strategic EU TEN-T transport routes (Mediterranean and Baltic–Adriatic Corridor). Seaport Rijeka represents the shortest connection between Central and Central-Eastern Europe, and overseas destinations, by land and sea, and is in an excellent position to take advantage of its location. Being the largest and busiest seaport in Croatia, with constant increase in cargo traffic, especially container traffic, with inadequate and incomplete transport infrastructure that creates congestion, Seaport Rijeka will soon reach its capacity limits. One of the possible solutions that would satisfy the increasing demand and mitigate existing problems is establishing a dry port. Establishing a dry port serving Seaport Rijeka on the EU transport routes would greatly contribute to the strategic and operational plans of the EU and Croatia. The focus of this paper is to determine the optimal dry port location for Seaport Rijeka. The AHP methodology was used to determine the optimal dry port location of the Seaport Rijeka, by analyzing a large set of influential factors. The analysis was performed for three groups of possible dry port locations (close, medium distance and distant). Results suggest that optimal dry port locations for Seaport Rijeka are in Miklavlje, Velika Gorica and Vinkovci

Conceptual Model of Predictive Safety Management Methodology in Aviation

Due to the continuous growth of air traffic and the development of aviation systems, the current safety management methodologies should be improved and upgraded. Safety management systems help aviation organizations to manage, maintain and increase safety efficiently. The focus of the research is on the development of the predictive safety management methodology to upgrade current reactive and proactive safety management methodologies and to improve the overall safety level in aviation organizations. Predictive methods are used in various aviation sectors (air navigation services, airport operations, airline operations) for planning purposes but not in the segment of safety management. Available examples of predictive methods were tested and analyzed. Time series decomposition methods were selected as most suited for implementation in aviation safety management. The paper explicitly emphasizes correlations between safety management methodologies in the sample aviation organization. The paper also shows how causal links among organizational and safety performance indicators can be detected, by developing causal models of mutual influences using causal modeling methods, on the sample organization. This research defined steps and tools of the conceptual model of predictive safety management methodology, which enables an organization to identify and mitigate future adverse events

Razvoj metodologije prediktivnoga upravljanja sigurnošću u zrakoplovstvu

The implementation and maintaining of effective safety management system (SMS) is regulated on global, regional, and national level. SMS is regulatory obligation for every aviation organisation. Three safety management methodologies have been defined: reactive, proactive and predictive. Most aviation organisations apply reactive or proactive methodology; hence the improvement of safety management can be found in predictive methodology. Therefore, the research is focused on the development of predictive safety management methodology. Targeted analyses is performed regarding safety management methodologies, sources of hazard identification, safety performance indicators and the links between them are revealed. Based on the research, a conceptual model of predictive safety management is developed, which identifies future threats, and ensures possibility of earlier response and mitigation measures, with the purpose of improving overall organisation’s safety performance.Implementacija i održavanje učinkovitog sustava upravljanja sigurnošću (SMS-a) regulirana je na globalnoj, regionalnoj i nacionalnoj razini. SMS je regulatorna obveza svake zrakoplovne organizacije. U radu je definiran problem istraživanja, svrha i ciljevi istraživanja uz pregled dosadašnjih istraživanja vezanih uz problematiku metodologija upravljanja sigurnošću u zrakoplovstvu. Istraživanje uključuje analizu upravljanja sigurnošću u zrakoplovstvu, uključujući povijesni razvoj, funkcije i elemente upravljanja sigurnošću u zrakoplovstvu, sa sveobuhvatnim pregledom sustava upravljanja sigurnošću u zrakoplovstvu. Posebno je obrađen segment upravljanja sigurnosnim performansama, koji uključuje sustave prikupljanja i obrade sigurnosnih podataka, analizu sigurnosnih podataka (deskriptivna, inferencijalna, prediktivna, kombinirana), donošenje odluka na temelju podataka te sigurnosne ciljeve, pokazatelje sigurnosnih performansi, ciljeve sigurnosnih performansi i sigurnosne „okidače“. Rad detaljno analizira metodologije i primjenjive metode upravljanja sigurnošću u zrakoplovstvu. Definirane su tri metodologije upravljanja sigurnošću: reaktivna, proaktivna i prediktivna. Većina zrakoplovnih organizacija primjenjuje reaktivnu ili proaktivnu metodologiju, a prostor za poboljšanje upravljanja sigurnošću nalazi se u prediktivnoj metodologiji. Na temelju analize primjenjivih metoda izrađena je selekcija prikladnih metoda te je prikazan pregled prediktivnih metoda primjenjivih u upravljanju sigurnošću u zrakoplovstvu. Stoga, istraživanje je usmjereno na razvoj prediktivne metodologije upravljanja sigurnošću. Ciljano su analizirane metodologije, izvori identifikacije opasnosti, sigurnosni pokazatelji te su otkrivene korelacije između njih. Utvrđeno je kako proaktivna metodologija predstavlja nadgradnju reaktivne, dok prediktivna metodologija predstavlja nadgradnju proaktivne metodologije. Uporabom prediktivnih metoda i kauzalnog modeliranja izrađena je prediktivna analiza i kauzalni model pokazatelja organizacijskih i sigurnosnih performansi provedenih na uzorku zrakoplovne organizacije, što dokazuje da postoje odnosi među pokazateljima organizacijskih i sigurnosnih performansi u organizaciji, te otkrivanjem istih otvora se mogućnost saznanja koje pokazatelje povećati ili smanjiti kako bi se postigla željena razina sigurnosnih performansi u organizaciji. Na temelju istraživanja, razvijen je konceptualni model prediktivnoga upravljanja sigurnošću, koji omogućuje identifikaciju potencijalnih opasnosti, te posljedično mogućnost ranijeg reagiranja i definiranja mjera za ublažavanje, u svrhu poboljšanja sveukupnih sigurnosnih performansi organizacije. Validacija i verifikacija konceptualnog modela prediktivnoga upravljanja sigurnošću provedena je na uzorku Zračne luke Split, te je prikazan sažetak rezultata i prijedlog mjera za ublažavanje za Zračnu luku Split. Novo razvijeni konceptualni model prediktivnoga upravljanja sigurnošću predstavlja nadgradnju postojećih reaktivnih i proaktivnih metodologija upravljanja sigurnošću u zrakoplovstvu

Predictive Safety Management System Development

Safety management systems are used to systematically manage safety risks. The paper describes and explains safety management systems in the field of aviation. Three aviation safety management methodologies are presented in the paper: reactive, proactive, and predictive. The aim is to show how safety management systems operate in each of the three methodologies. The focus of the paper is on predictive safety management methodology, its advantages, and potential uses. An overview of predictive methods used in the aviation industry is also provided. The research collected information on each safety management methodology, and revealed correlations between them, improving our understanding of safety management systems in general. Based on research described in the paper, the author proposes the development of a more advanced safety management system, i.e. a predictive safety management system which would entail the development of an expanded and well-organised safety database, as well as the use of predictive (forecasting) methods to identify potential and emerging hazards, trends and behaviour patterns