Managing risks of capital mobility

Inherent in pursuing openness to international capital flows is an awareness that it brings both benefits and risks. Much of the current debate is about how best to balance them. Major benefits for developing countries include access to a broader menu of investment sources, options, and instruments, as well as enhanced efficiency of domestic financial institutions and the discipline of capital markets in conducting domestic macroeconomic policy. By easing financing constraints, the greater availability of international finance can extend the period for implementing needed adjustments. From the perspective of emerging market economies, the author highlights two sources of risk: the host governments'policy of liberalizing capital controls before having established the macroeconomic, regulatory, and institutional foundations required for capital openness. A shift in foreign leaders'and investors'sentiments and confidence, not necessarily related to a particular country's long-term creditworthiness. Risk management demands judicious strategies for both corporate and financial institutions and national policy. At the institutional level, with the advances in technology and communications, financial risk management practice has improved significantly in recent years through the use of statistical models, such as value at risk, computer simulation, and stress testing. At the national level, with the worldwide trend toward democracy, the author argues that managing the risks of financial openness will require developing national mechanisms through which to provide insurance to citizens-through the marketplace or through redistributive policy-and thus to avert political pressure for capital controls. To succeed, open democratic societies have to balance the threat of capital exit, made easier by the opening of capital markets, with the political voice of citizens-demanding protection through redistribution, social safety nets, and other insurance-like measures. These insurance measures have been critical increasing the tension between politics and financial openness in OECD countries. Indeed, cross-country empirical analysis confirms that countries that spend a large share of their GDP on social needs (education, health, and transfer payments) are more open to free international capital flows, and also score high on measures of political and civil liberty.Capital Markets and Capital Flows,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Intermediation,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Economics,Settlement of Investment Disputes

Financial openness, democracy, and redistributive policy

The debate about the relationship between democratic forms of government and the free movement of capital across borders dates to the 18th century. It has regained prominence as capital on a massive scale has become increasingly mobile and as free economies experience continuous pressure from rapidly changing technology, market integration, changing consumer preferences, and intensified competition. These changes imply greater uncertainty about citizens'future income positions, which could prompt them to seek insurance through the marketplace or through constitutionally arranged income redistribution. As more countries move toward democracy, the availability of such insurance mechanisms to citizens is key if political pressure for capital controls is to be averted and if public support for an open, liberal international financial order is to be maintained. The author briefly reviews how today's international financial system evolved from one of mostly closed capital accounts immediately after World War II to today's enormous, largely free-flowing market. Drawing on insights from the literature on public choice and constitutional political economy, the author develops an analytical framework for a welfare cost-benefit analysis of financial openness to international capital flows. The main welfare benefits of financial openness derive from greater economic efficiency and increased opportunities for risk diversification. The welfare costs relate to the cost of insurance used as a mechanism for coping with the risks of financial volatility. These insurance costs are the economic losses associated with redistribution, including moral hazard, rent-seeking, and rent-avoidance. A cross-sectional analysis of a large sample of developed and developing countries shows the positive correlation between democracy (as defined by political and civil liberty) and financial openness. More rigorous econometric investigation using logit analysis and controlling for level of income also shows that redistributive social policies are key in determining the likelihood that countries can successfully combine an openness to international capital mobility with democratic forms of government.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Banks&Banking Reform,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Macroeconomic Management,Financial Intermediation

IMPLEMENTATION OF A LEARNING MODEL WHICH IS HELPED BY COMICS BASED ON A REALISTIC MATHEMATICALAPPROACHMENT TO IMPROVE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL STUDENTS' PROBLEM SOLVING ABILITY

This research's purpose is to know the ability of problem solving in fifth grade students of SDN 010015 Sei Serindan, Sub-district Sei Kepayang Barat, Asahan regency with comics media teaching materials based on Realistic Mathematics Approachment Learning Year 2018/2019. The experimental design is based on the Pretest-Posttest control Group Design which involves two groups of students who are a group of experimenters who get learners assisted by comic media and a control group who get a tutorial with a conventional strategy. This research involved the two types of instruments, they are test and non-test. Instruments in the form of tests were used to extend the ability of mathematical problem solving and question solving. While the non-test instruments consisted of students' learning sheets, student learning activities and teacher opinion questionnaires. The results of the research showed that the ability to solve mathematical problems of students who got learning from comic media with the PMR approach was better than students who received ordinary learning. This can be seen tcount = 3,92 > t table = 1,9. Students with PMR approaching has a better increase in mathematical understanding than students who follows ordinary learning. This can be seen in tcount 6.30 >_ ttable = 1.99. Attitudes of students towards learning are positive. Student activities are more positive in learning and more able to solve given problems Keyword:  Comics media, Problem Solving Abilities, Attitude

KEEFEKTIPAN PENERAPAN MEDIA DARING DALAM PROSES PEMBELAJARAN MAHASISWA FKIP UNIVERSITAS ASAHAN

ABSTRACT This study aims to determine the online learning process that was applied at the time of the Covid-19 outbreak. At first the online learning process was only carried out in a few universities, but nowadays almost all activities, especially the world of education, use online media. Like the rules made by the Chancellor of Asahan University. Since mid-March 2020, the Faculty of Teacher Training and Education at Asahan University has implemented an online learning system. The purpose of implementing online learning is so that students can still carry out the learning process at home in order to avoid the Covid-19 outbreak. With the application of online media, it is hoped that the Teaching and Education Faculty students can prepare themselves to compete in the digital era. The online learning process is felt to be more relaxed, students can do their assignments according to the predetermined time. Good cooperation between lecturers and students and parties related to certain universities, in this case especially for Asahan University. The process of implementing online lectures is a determining factor for more effective learning. Keywords:Effectiveness; Online Media; Learning proces

Government support to private infrastructure projects in emerging markets

Driven by fiscal austerity and disenchantment with the performance of state-provided infrastructure services, many governments have turned to the private sector to build, operate, finance, or own infrastructure in power, gas, water, transport, and telecommunications sectors. Private capital flows to developing countries are increasing rapidly; 15 percent of infrastructure investment is now funded by private capital in emerging markets. But relative to needs, such private investment is progressing slowly. Governments are reluctant to raise consumer prices to cost-covering levels, while investors, mindful of experience, fear that governments may renege on promises to maintain adequate prices over the long haul. So investors ask for government support in the form of grants, preferential tax treatment, debt or equity contributions, or guarantees. These subsidies differ in how they allocate risk between private investors and government. Efficiency gains are greatest when private parties assume the risks that they can manage better than the public sector. When governments establish good policies--especially cost-covering prices and credible commitments to stick to them--investors are willing to invest without special government support. Privatizing assets without government guarantees or other financial support is possible, even where governments are politically unable to raise prices, because investors can achieve the returns they demand by discounting the value of the assets they are purchasing. But this is not possible for new investments (greenfield projects). If prices have been set too low and the government is not willing to raise them, it must give the investor financial support, such as guarantees and other forms of subsidy, to facilitate worthwhile projects that would not otherwise proceed. But guarantees shift costs from consumers to taxpayers, who subsidize users of infrastructure services. Much of that subsidy is hidden, since the government does not record the guarantee in its fiscal accounts. And taxpayers provide unremunerated credit insurance, as the government borrows based on its ability to tax citizens if the project fails, not on the strength of the project itself.Payment Systems&Infrastructure,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Banks&Banking Reform,Municipal Financial Management,Banks&Banking Reform,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Municipal Financial Management,Environmental Economics&Policies,Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring

The emerging project bond market - covenant provisions and credit spreads

The emergence in the 1990s of a nascent project bond market to fund long-term infrastructure projects in developing countries merits attention. The authors compile detailed information on a sample of 105 bonds issued between January 1993 and March 2002 for financing infrastructure projects in developing countries, document their contractual covenants, and analyze their pricing determinants. They find that on average, project bonds are issued at approximately 300 basis points above U.S. Treasury securities, have a surprisingly high issue size of US$278 million, a maturity of slightly under 12 years, and are rated slightly below investment grade. In terms of geographic origin, projects in Asia and Latin America have issued more bonds than those located in other regions. Much of the recent work relating to the role of contractual covenants to the determination of bond prices has focused on the U.S. corporate bond market with its unique bankruptcy code - Chapter 11 - and well developed legal framework, recognizing the bond contract as the sole instrument of defining the rights and duties of various parties. In circumstances in which the underpinning legal and institutional frameworks governing contract formation and enforcement are not well developed, the link between bond pricing and legal framework becomes important. This finding is confirmed by the authors'econometric analysis of project bond pricing model. So, investors take into account the quality of the host country's legal framework and reward projects located in countries that adhere to the rule of law with tighter credit spreads and lower funding costs.Banks&Banking Reform,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Financial Intermediation,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Banks&Banking Reform,Housing Finance,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Intermediation

The new multi-polar international monetary system

Backed by rapid economic growth, growing financial clout, and a newfound sense of assertiveness in recent years, the BRIC countries - Brazil, Russia, India, and China - are a driving force behind an incipient transformation of the world economy away from a US-dominated system toward a multipolar one in which developing countries will have a major say. It is, however, in the international monetary arena that the notion of multipolarity - more than two dominant poles - commands renewed attention and vigorous debate. For much of its history, the quintessential structural feature of the international monetary system has been unipolarity - as American hegemony of initiatives and power as well as its capacity to promote a market-based, liberal order came to define and shape international monetary relations. As other currencies become potential substitutes for the US dollar in international reserves and in cross-border claims, exchange rate volatility may become more severe. There are also risks that the rivalry among the three economic blocs may spill over into something more if not kept in check by a strong global governance structure. While the transition will be difficult and drawn out, governments should take immediate steps to prevent financial volatility by enhancing cooperation on monetary policies, currency market intervention and financial regulation.Currencies and Exchange Rates,Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Economic Theory&Research

Infrastructure project finance and capital flows : a new perspective

The success with which middle-income indebted developing countries have gained access to private international finance in the 1990s is a tribute to their own domestic economic performance, international policy in dealing with the debt crisis of the 1980s, and innovation in international financial markets. Emphasizing the role of private infrastructure investment as a vehicle for attracting foreign capital to developing countries in the 1990s, the authors develop an analysis model to examine what determines the credit-risk premium on infrastructure projects in the country-risk environment of developing countries. They also provide tentative quantitative evidence of the importance of macroeconomic and project-specific attributes of project risk. Their key finding is that the market seems to impose a high-risk premium on loans to countries with high inflation and to projects in the road sector.Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Environmental Economics&Policies,Financial Intermediation,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Banks&Banking Reform

Contract risks and credit spread determinants in the international project bond market

International bond markets have become an increasingly important source of long-term capital for infrastructure projects in emerging market economies over the past decade. The Ras Laffan Liquified Natural Gas (Ras Gas) project represents a milestone in this respect: its $1.2 billion bond offering, completed in December 1996, has been the largest for any international project. The Ras Gas project has the right to extract, process, and sell liquefied natural gas (LNG) from a field off the shore of Qatar. The principal off-taker is the Korea Gas Corporation (Kogas), which resells most of the LNG to the Korea Electric Power Corporation (Kepco) for electricity generation. In this clinical study the authors analyze the determinants of credit spreads for the Ras Gas project in terms of its contractual structure, with a view to better understanding the role of contract design in facilitating access to the global project bond market. Market risk perceptions have long been recognized to be a function of firm-specific variables, particularly asset value as embodied in contracts. The authors therefore study the impact of three interlocking contracts on the credit spreads of the project's actively traded global bonds: the 25-year output sales and purchase agreement with Kogas-Kepco, the international bond covenant, and an output price-contingent debt service guarantee by Mobil to debt holders. Using a sample of daily data from January 1997 to March 2000, the authors find that the quality of the off-taker's credit-and, more important, the market's assessment of the off-taker's economic prospects-drive project bond credit spreads and pricing. In addition, seemingly unrelated events in emerging debt markets spill over to project bond markets and affect risk perceptions and prices in this segment. Judicious use of an output price-contingent debt service guarantee by shareholders can significantly reduce project risks, and markets reward issuers through tighter credit spreads. Bondholders and shareholders share residual risks over time, despite covenants meant to preempt risk shifting. This type of risk shifting originates from incomplete contracts and the nonrecourse nature of project finance. It does not necessarily result from a deliberate attempt by management to increase shareholder value at the expense of debt holders by pursuing high-risk, low-value activities, although project managers and shareholders could still exploit their informational advantages by leaving output supply contracts incomplete in ways beneficial to their private interests. The results hold important lessons for global project finance. Projects incorporating certain design features can reap significant financial gains through lower borrowing costs and longer debt maturities: Judicious guarantees by parents that enjoy a particular hedging advantage enhance a project's appeal, as reflected in favorable pricing. Pledging receivables rather than physical assets as collateral and administering investor cash flows through an off-shore account offers additional security to debt holders. Projects should use their liability structure to create an implicit option on future private debt financing that matches the real option of a project expansion. The finding that bondholders bear residual risks means that shareholders can reduce their risks arising from bilateral monopolies and buy insurance against unforeseen and unforeseeable events.Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Housing Finance

Measures of investor and consumer confidence and policy actions in the current crisis

The current financial crisis has highlighted the danger that declines in confidence can have a self-fulfilling effect on economic activity. In this paper, the authors consider ways of measuring investor and consumer confidence, and try to explain the evolution of confidence using measures of financial volatility, investment performance, macroeconomic outcomes, and policy actions. They identify a link between investor and consumer confidence. Finally, they show that liquidity provision and easing of interest rates had only a limited effect on financial market spreads during the crisis, arguing for additional measures to address the loss of confidence. The paper focuses on the need for financial regulatory reform, and shows how the incentives to cooperate in this area are stimulated by a common shock to confidence.Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Banks&Banking Reform