186 research outputs found

    Selecting Forecasting Methods

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    I examined six ways of selecting forecasting methods: Convenience, “what’s easy,” is inexpensive, but risky. Market popularity, “what others do,” sounds appealing but is unlikely to be of value because popularity and success may not be related and because it overlooks some methods. Structured judgment, “what experts advise,” which is to rate methods against prespecified criteria, is promising. Statistical criteria, “what should work,” are widely used and valuable, but risky if applied narrowly. Relative track records, “what has worked in this situation,” are expensive because they depend on conducting evaluation studies. Guidelines from prior research, “what works in this type of situation,” relies on published research and offers a low-cost, effective approach to selection. Using a systematic review of prior research, I developed a flow chart to guide forecasters in selecting among ten forecasting methods. Some key findings: Given enough data, quantitative methods are more accurate than judgmental methods. When large changes are expected, causal methods are more accurate than naive methods. Simple methods are preferable to complex methods; they are easier to understand, less expensive, and seldom less accurate. To select a judgmental method, determine whether there are large changes, frequent forecasts, conflicts among decision makers, and policy considerations. To select a quantitative method, consider the level of knowledge about relationships, the amount of change involved, the type of data, the need for policy analysis, and the extent of domain knowledge. When selection is difficult, combine forecasts from different methods

    Transcriptome Kinetics Is Governed by a Genome-Wide Coupling of mRNA Production and Degradation: A Role for RNA Pol II

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    Transcriptome dynamics is governed by two opposing processes, mRNA production and degradation. Recent studies found that changes in these processes are frequently coordinated and that the relationship between them shapes transcriptome kinetics. Specifically, when transcription changes are counter-acted with changes in mRNA stability, transient fast-relaxing transcriptome kinetics is observed. A possible molecular mechanism underlying such coordinated regulation might lay in two RNA polymerase (Pol II) subunits, Rpb4 and Rpb7, which are recruited to mRNAs during transcription and later affect their degradation in the cytoplasm. Here we used a yeast strain carrying a mutant Pol II which poorly recruits these subunits. We show that this mutant strain is impaired in its ability to modulate mRNA stability in response to stress. The normal negative coordinated regulation is lost in the mutant, resulting in abnormal transcriptome profiles both with respect to magnitude and kinetics of responses. These results reveal an important role for Pol II, in regulation of both mRNA synthesis and degradation, and also in coordinating between them. We propose a simple model for production-degradation coupling that accounts for our observations. The model shows how a simple manipulation of the rates of co-transcriptional mRNA imprinting by Pol II may govern genome-wide transcriptome kinetics in response to environmental changes

    Biological characteristics and treatment outcomes of metastatic or recurrent neuroendocrine tumors: tumor grade and metastatic site are important for treatment strategy

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Studies about the biology, treatment pattern, and treatment outcome of metastatic/recurrent neuroendocrine tumor (NET) have been few.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We enrolled patients with metastatic/recurrent NET diagnosed between January 1996 and July 2007 and retrospectively analyzed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 103 patients were evaluated. Twenty-six patients (25.2%) had pancreatic NET, 27 (26.2%) had gastrointestinal NET, 2 (1.9%) had lung NET, 28 (27.2%) had NET from other sites, and 20 (19.4%) had NET from unknown origin. The liver was the most common metastatic site (68.9%). Thirty-four patients had grade 1 disease, 1 (1.0%) had grade 2 disease, 15 (14.6%) had grade 3 disease, 9 (8.7%) had large cell disease, and 7 (6.8%) had small cell disease.</p> <p>Sixty-six patients received systemic treatment (interferon, somatostatin analogues or chemotherapy), 64 patients received local treatment (TACE, radiofrequency ablation, metastasectomy, etc.). Thirty-six patients received both systemic and local treatments.</p> <p>Median overall survival (OS) was 29.0 months (95% confidence interval, 25.0-33.0) in the103 patients. OS was significantly influenced by grade (<it>p </it>= .001). OS was 43.0, 23.0, and 29.0 months in patients who received local treatment only, systemic treatment only, and both treatments, respectively (<it>p </it>= .245). The median time-to-progression (TTP) was 6.0 months. Overall response rate was 34.0% and disease-control rate was 64.2%. TTP was influenced by the presence of liver metastasis (<it>p </it>= .011).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>OS of metastatic/recurrent NET was different according to tumor grade. TTP was different according to metastasis site. Therefore, development of optimal treatment strategy based on the characteristics of NET is warranted.</p

    Induction cisplatin–irinotecan followed by concurrent cisplatin–irinotecan and radiotherapy without surgery in oesophageal cancer: multicenter phase II FFCD trial

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    A recent phase I study showed that weekly cisplatin, irinotecan and concurrent radiotherapy can be administered with moderate toxicity in patients with oesophageal cancer. Patients with no prior treatment and oesophageal cancer stage I to III, performance status <3, caloric intake >1500 kcal day−1 were included. Chemotherapy, with cisplatin 30 mg m−2 and irinotecan 60 mg m−2, was administered at days 1, 8, 22, 29, and concurrently with radiotherapy at days 43, 50, 64 and 71. Radiotherapy was delivered with 50 or 50.4 Gy in 25 fractions/5 weeks. Forty-three patients were included, 10 stage I, 19 stage II and 14 stage III. Mean age was 59.2 years (range 44–79). A total of 30 out of 43 (69.8%) patients underwent all planned treatment. During induction chemotherapy, 14 severe toxicities of grade 3 or 4 in 10 patients (23.3%) were reported with 57.1% due to haematoxicity. During chemoradiotherapy, 31 severe toxicities of grade 3 or 4 with 64.5% due to haematotoxicity were reported in 18 patients. One toxic death occurred (diarrhoea grade 4). The complete clinical response rate was 58.1% (95% CI: 43.4–72.8%). Overall survival rate at 1 and 2 years was 62.8%, (95% CI, 58.3–77.3%) and 27.9% (95% CI, 13.4–41.3%), respectively. In conclusion, cisplatin–irinotecan–radiotherapy is an active and well-tolerated regimen feasible in out-patients

    Differential Pharmacological Actions of Methadone and Buprenorphine in Human Embryonic Kidney 293 Cells Coexpressing Human μ-Opioid and Opioid Receptor-Like 1 Receptors

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    Methadone and buprenorphine are used in maintenance therapy for heroin addicts. In this study, we compared their effects on adenylate cyclase (AC) activity in human embryonic kidney (HEK) 293 cells stably overexpressing human μ-opioid receptor (MOR) and nociceptin/opioid receptor-like 1 receptor (ORL1) simultaneously. After acute exposure, methadone inhibited AC activity; however, buprenorphine induced compromised AC inhibition. When naloxone was introduced after 30 min incubation with methadone, the AC activity was enhanced. This was not observed in the case of buprenorphine. Enhancement of the AC activity was more significant when the incubation lasted for 4 h, and prolonged exposure to buprenorphine elevated the AC activity as well. The removal of methadone and buprenorphine by washing also obtained similar AC superactivation as that revealed by naloxone challenge. The study demonstrated that methadone and buprenorphine exert initially different yet eventually convergent adaptive changes of AC activity in cells coexpressing human MOR and ORL1 receptors

    Detection of oncogenic virus genomes and gene products in lung carcinoma

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    We investigated a series of 122 cases of small cell lung carcinomas and non-small cell lung carcinomas for the presence of several viruses that are known to be oncogenic in humans. Thus, viral genomes (DNA) and/or RNA transcripts and/or proteins of human papillomaviruses (HPV) 16, 18, 31, 33, 51, Epstein–Barr virus (EBV), human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8), human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) and simian virus 40 (SV40) were investigated on tissue sections (prepared in tissue microarrays) with different techniques of immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridisation. None of the cases displayed a single positive tumour cell for all the viruses tested whatever the technique applied. Of note, in five cases of tumours with lymphoid infiltrates, we detected scattered EBV (EBER)-positive bystander lymphocytes. In three cases, a faint nuclear staining was found with the anti-latent nuclear antigen/LANA1 (HHV-8) antibody. These cases were checked by PCR with two sets of primers (orf 26 and orf 75) and remained negative for this latter virus. Taken together, our data strongly suggest that the conventional human oncogenic viruses (HPV, EBV, HCMV, HHV-8 and SV40) are unlikely to play some role in the development of lung carcinomas

    The Hemorrhagic Coli Pilus (HCP) of Escherichia coli O157:H7 Is an Inducer of Proinflammatory Cytokine Secretion in Intestinal Epithelial Cells

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    Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) O157:H7, the causative agent of hemorrhagic colitis and the hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS), produces long bundles of type IV pili (TFP) called hemorrhagic coli pili (HCP). HCP are capable of mediating several phenomena associated with pathogenicity: i) adherence to human and bovine epithelial cells; ii) invasion of epithelial cells; iii) hemagglutination of rabbit erythrocytes; iv) biofilm formation; v) twitching motility; and vi) specific binding to laminin and fibronectin. HCP are composed of a 19 kDa pilin subunit (HcpA) encoded by the hcpA chromosomal gene (called prepilin peptidase-dependent gene [ppdD] in E. coli K-12).In this study we investigated the potential role of HCP of E. coli O157:H7 strain EDL933 in activating the release of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines from a variety of host epithelial cells. We found that purified HCP and a recombinant HcpA protein induced significant release of IL-8 and TNF-alpha, from cultured polarized intestinal cells (T84 and HT-29 cells) and non-intestinal HeLa cells. Levels of proinflammatory IL-8 and TNF-alpha, but not IL-2, IL6, or IL-10 cytokines, were increased in the presence of HCP and recombinant HcpA after 6 h of incubation with >or=50 ng/ml of protein, suggesting that stimulation of IL-8 and TNF-alpha are dose and time-dependent. In addition, we also demonstrated that flagella are potent inducers of cytokine production. Furthermore, MAPK activation kinetics studies showed that EHEC induces p38 phosphorylation under HCP-producing conditions, and ERK1/2 and JNK activation was detectable after 3 h of EHEC infection. HT-29 cells were stimulated with epidermal growth factor stimulation of HT-29 cells for 30 min leading to activation of three MAPKs.The HcpA pilin monomer of the HCP produced by EHEC O157:H7 is a potent inducer of IL-8 and TNF-alpha release, an event which could play a significant role in the pathogenesis of hemorrhagic colitis caused by this pathogen

    Targeted therapies in colorectal cancer: an integrative view by PPPM

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    In developed countries, colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common malignancy, but it is the second most frequent cause of cancer-related death. Clinicians are still faced with numerous challenges in the treatment of this disease, and future approaches which target the molecular features of the disorder will be critical for success in this disease setting. Genetic analyses of many solid tumours have shown that up to 100 protein-encoding genes are mutated. Within CRC, numerous genetic alterations have been identified in a number of pathways. Therefore, understanding the molecular pathology of CRC may present information on potential routes for treatment and may also provide valuable prognostic information. This will be particularly pertinent for molecularly targeted treatments, such as anti-vascular endothelial growth factor therapies and anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) monoclonal antibody therapy. KRAS and BRAF mutations have been shown to predict response to anti-EGFR therapy. As EGFR can also signal via the phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K) kinase pathway, there is considerable interest in the potential roles of members of this pathway (such as PI3K and PTEN) in predicting treatment response. Therefore, a combined approach of new techniques that allow identification of these biomarkers alongside interdisciplinary approaches to the treatment of advanced CRC will aid in the treatment decision-making process and may also serve to guide future therapeutic approaches

    The Human Phenotype Ontology in 2024: phenotypes around the world

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    \ua9 The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research. The Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO) is a widely used resource that comprehensively organizes and defines the phenotypic features of human disease, enabling computational inference and supporting genomic and phenotypic analyses through semantic similarity and machine learning algorithms. The HPO has widespread applications in clinical diagnostics and translational research, including genomic diagnostics, gene-disease discovery, and cohort analytics. In recent years, groups around the world have developed translations of the HPO from English to other languages, and the HPO browser has been internationalized, allowing users to view HPO term labels and in many cases synonyms and definitions in ten languages in addition to English. Since our last report, a total of 2239 new HPO terms and 49235 new HPO annotations were developed, many in collaboration with external groups in the fields of psychiatry, arthrogryposis, immunology and cardiology. The Medical Action Ontology (MAxO) is a new effort to model treatments and other measures taken for clinical management. Finally, the HPO consortium is contributing to efforts to integrate the HPO and the GA4GH Phenopacket Schema into electronic health records (EHRs) with the goal of more standardized and computable integration of rare disease data in EHRs
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