Renewable energy sources generation forecasting in aggregated energy system level

Renewable Energy Sources (RES) generation forecasting is an approach to handle the stochasticity of RES. This concept is very crucial to transform RES plants into dispatchable and integrated them for contemporary energy markets. The majority of the literature focuses on individual plants. The data are collected in a site and used as inputs in the forecasting model. The present paper is centered on aggregated energy system level. The total capacities of Photovoltaics (PV) and Wind Turbine (WT) power of a country are regarded. A scenarios-based approach is followed in order to investigate how the number and types of inputs influence the forecasting performance. While most studies of the literature focus on individual systems, the paper contributes on the RES forecasting literature through the consideration of the total PV and WT generation capacity on aggregated power system level. © 2021 IEE

Strategic appraisal of flood risk management options over extended timescales: combining scenario analysis with optimization

Strategic flood risk management seeks to identify portfolios of flood risk management options that can be implemented in a staged and adaptive way. This raises substantial challenges from the point of view of risk analysis, two of which are addressed in this paper. First we examine the problem of dealing with scenarios of long term change and in particular socio-economic and climate changes. We build substantially on the scenarios approach adopted in the UK Foresight project and subsequent studies by introducing a quantified high resolution coupled econometric and land use simulator. This is used in an assessment of the combined effects of land use and climate change. Again against the background of climate change, we go on to address the complexity of constructing and analysing portfolios of intervention flood risk management systems. Specifically, we illustrate how a genetic algorithm can be used to search the very high dimensional option space of flood defence management options and sequences. This new integrated approach of scenario analysis and optimization is illustrated with examples from the Thames Estuary in the UK