On the Truth Values of Definite Descriptions: Examining the Russell-Strawson Dialectic

A well-known critique of Russell’s Theory of Descriptions, offered by P.F. Strawson, is that a central tenet of Russell’s theory, the claim that any particular utterance of a sentence with a non-referring definite description will be either true or false, is mistaken. Strawson provides a similarly well-known argument in support of this claim which at least in part rests on an analysis of such utterances as implying or presupposing, rather than asserting, parts of the logically existential proposition that Russell takes such sentences to be. For Strawson, propositions such as ‘the x is p’ instead presuppose ‘there is an x’ rather than commit to the truth of that proposition. And fulfilling this presupposition is a necessary condition for any such proposition to have a truth value at all. In this paper, I aim to challenge Strawson’s analysis and will argue that (i) we ought to take such utterances to really be asserting the logically existential proposition Russell analyzes them as, and thus that (ii) the utterances of sentences with a non-referring definite description do have truth values. I argue that taking these sentences to be presupposing certain propositions, rather than asserting them, better takes into account certain principles about which utterances ought to be declared false by an agent given their knowledge of other propositions

A Phenomenological Approach to the Bayesian Grue Problem

It is a common intuition in scientific practice that positive instances confirm. This confirmation, at least purely based on syntactic considerations, is what Nelson Goodman’s ‘Grue Problem’, and more generally the ‘New Riddle’ of Induction, attempt to defeat. One treatment of the Grue Problem has been made along Bayesian lines, wherein the riddle reduces to a question of probability assignments. In this paper, I consider this so-called Bayesian Grue Problem and evaluate how one might proffer a solution to this problem utilizing what I call a phenomenological approach. I argue that this approach to the problem can be successful on the Bayesian framework

A Phenomenological Approach to the Bayesian Grue Problem

It is a common intuition in scientific practice that positive instances confirm. This confirmation, at least based purely on syntactic considerations, is what Nelson Goodman’s ‘Grue Problem’, and more generally the ‘New Riddle’ of Induction, attempt to defeat. One treatment of the Grue Problem has been made along Bayesian lines, wherein the riddle reduces to a question of probability assignments. In this paper, I consider this so-called Bayesian Grue Problem and evaluate how one might proffer a solution to this problem utilizing what I call a phenomenological approach. I argue that this approach to the problem can be successful on the Bayesian framework

Properties, Collections, and the Successive Addition Argument

The Successive Addition Argument (SAA) is one of the key arguments espoused by William Lane Craig for the thesis that the universe began to exist. Recently, Alex Malpass (2021) has developed a challenge to the SAA by way of constructing a counterexample that originates in the work of Fred Dretske. In this paper, I show that the Malpass-Dretske counterexample is in fact no counterexample to the argument. Utilizing a distinction between properties of members and properties of collections, I argue that Malpass’ counterexample has no bearing on the soundness of the SAA. I also develop a novel parity argument against Malpass’ argument that I demonstrate can only be resolved by way of the aforementioned analysis

Towards WSN-aided Navigation for Vehicles in Smart Cities: An Application Case Study.

International audienceWith the emergence of Smart City concept, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) become one of the key technologies for instrumenting the city, and thus providing its inhabitants with various services meant to improve their daily life. One of the identified applications is Smart Street Lightning, where the lamps are in a mesh network for remote control and maintenance purposes. This paper proposes Ubiquitous Navigation System (UNS), a WSN-based navigation system, which takes benefit from the Smart Street Lightning system to provide a local navigation service. The positioning part of the system uses Angle of Arrival (AoA) measurements to estimate the vehicle position on the map. Based on a realistic network scenario, extracted from a city map using Google Maps, we study the performance of Triangulation using AoA in a smart urban environment that exhibits topology related constraints. Simulations results show that such constraints lead to particular spatial distribution of the anchor nodes that affects both positioning accuracy and beacon packets reception rate. We also propose and evaluate the use of the network communication range as a technique to mitigate the effect of geometric dilution of precision (GDOP). The simulation results show that this technique successfully detected GDOP-affected positions and thus significantly enhanced the positioning accuracy

The Predictive Power of Oil and Commodity Prices for Equity Markets

Using a seven-variable Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and a rolling window approach, this paper investigates causality between oil price changes and the aggregate stock market returns of France, Italy, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. We provide strong empirical evidence that oil price changes cause aggregate stock returns for the two oil-exporting Arab countries starting in 2014. Since the post-2014 period is one of declining oil prices, our findings may suggest that causality depends on the prevailing oil price regime. Our findings also suggest that copper price changes are, to a lesser extent, useful predictors of the equity returns of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates

Oil price dynamics and energy transitions in the Middle East and North Africa: Economic implications and structural reforms

There is a widespread consensus that the sharp fall in the price of oil between 2014 and 2016 has had adverse effects on economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The consequences of the precipitous decline in the price of oil were particularly pronounced for the oil exporters. Because the price of oil and the government expenditures of the oil-exporting countries move in tandem, the drop in the price of oil weighed on the fiscal space of oil-exporters (International Monetary Fund, 2019a). The oil-exporting countries with limited fiscal buffers were particularly prone to the negative repercussions of the oil price shock of 2014 (International Monetary Fund, 2019b). Oil-importers in the MENA also did not reap the benefits of the drop in the price of oil due to lower remittances as well as to a slowdown in regional growth. In sum, the oil price shock proved to be a drag on the output growth of MENA’s oil exporting and importing economies (World Bank, 2016; International Monetary Fund, 2015a)

Advancing Evidence-Based Policy in Crisis Management: The Case of Lebanon

This study offers an evidence-based assessment of the cross-sectoral effects of Lebanon’s protracted economic crisis on the employment, incomes, energy poverty, livelihood and food-based coping strategies, and attitudes towards immigration in seven economic sectors. The study’s findings are based on the field survey responses of 931 households earning a livelihood from the agriculture, construction, education, food and beverage, health, manufacturing, and retail sectors drawn from all of Lebanon’s governorates. The statistical analysis is complemented, sharpened, and enhanced using the input of high-profile experts who participated in five group Key Informant Interviews. The findings suggest that Lebanon’s economic crisis had pervasive and profound effects on the livelihoods and employment conditions of the respondents across the seven sectors. First, the findings bring to light the extreme energy burden that households face amid the severe rationing of the power supply. More than two thirds of households, across the seven sectors, spend more than 50 percent of their income on energy. The findings also uncover the harsh livelihood and food-based coping strategies that were adopted by the respondents. The bulk of households across the seven sectors have reduced the quantity of basic food staples such milk, fruits, vegetables, and bread and switched to cheaper alternatives for basic food items. In addition, with the exception of respondents from the manufacturing and food and beverage sectors, 30 percent or more of the respondents across sectors report having to skip a meal during the week, while 32.87 percent of the households across sectors are not able to afford a meal with chicken, fish or meat at least once a week

“Advancing Evidence-based Policy in Crisis Management: Field Survey Findings

This report presents preliminary findings from the field surveys conducted as part of the project led by AUB and funded by the National Endowment for Democracy: “Advancing Evidence-Based Policy in Crisis Management.” The project aims to monitor the impact of the multi-dimensional crises Lebanon is facing, on multiple economic sectors, and subsequently advance evidence-based policy reforms that respond to citizens’ priorities. For this purpose, the assessment carried out had two main objectives: (i) gathering information about the socio-economic impacts of the crisis, and (ii) data on coping mechanisms. This preliminary report will be followed by a more detailed final report containing analysis of qualitative and quantitative data collected through surveys and interviews. Studies have found that collecting more information (qualitative and quantitative) on households’ vulnerability to poverty could help inform policy. The final report will present a more comprehensive analysis and make some policy recommendations