Does Financial Performance Influence Credit Ratings? An analysis of Korean KRX Firms

Credit rating agencies offer information about default risk. Previous literature suggests that firm’s credit ratings are influenced by various metrics, specifically, numerous risk considerations such as size, leverage and growth. However, there is limited evidence to support the relationship between credit ratings and financial performance. Our research is motivated by this caveat. The purpose of this paper is to discover if financial performance measures can be included as an indicator for default risk since the relation between financial performance and default risk/credit rating is a question left unanswered in a South Korean context. In this paper, we empirically test if financial performance measures can provide additional information about credit ratings and credit rating changes. We perform a battery of tests to establish if the following financial performance measures: EPS, CPS, ROA, ROE, and ROS have any explanatory power in explaining credit ratings levels and credit rating changes. Using a sample from 2002 to 2013, we find that EPS and CPS has a statistically positive relation to credit ratings, suggesting that firms with higher credit ratings have higher levels of EPS and CPS compared to firms with lower credit ratings. Moreover, we find that firms with positive performance measured by EPS and CPS in period t have the potential to experience a credit ratings change in period t+1. However, in South Korea, the majority of firms do not experience a credit ratings change. When we estimate the financial performance of the firms that do not experience a credit ratings change, we find a statistically significant relation between credit rating and financial performance for EPS and CPS. The results suggest that credit ratings for firms with positive financial performance remain stable Finally, we examine the relation between performance in period t and credit ratings increase and decrease in period t+1. The results suggest that the credit ratings of firms with high level of financial performances increase or remain the same. We do not find a relation between financial performance and credit rating decreases; this result may be due to our small sample size. The previous literature has largely ignored the association between credit ratings and performance. Taken together, our results suggests that EPS and CPS can be used as financial performance measures by investors, government agencies and debt issuers as additional information about a firms credit rating levels, and subsequent changes. We contribute to the literature by providing empirical evidence of a relationship between performance metrics and credit ratings, specifically the link between EPS

Do firms engage in earnings management to improve credit ratings?: Evidence from KRX bond issuers

In this paper, we examine the relationship between credit ratings, credit ratings changes and earnings management. Since the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, many listed firms collapsed, leading investors to suffer losses. As a result, credit ratings have become a very important indicators of firms’ financial stability for investors, government agencies and debt issuers and other stakeholders. Firms with a similar credit rating are grouped together as firms of similar credit quality (Kisgen 2006) because credit ratings provide an ‘economically meaningful role’ (Boot et al. 2006). Numerous studies find that managers care deeply about their credit ratings (Graham and Harvey 2001; Kisgen 2009; Hovakimian at al. 2009). Firms that borrow equity in the form of bonds may have incentives to increase credit ratings with opportunistic earnings management. A change in a firm’s credit ratings has a direct impact on a firm’s profitability. Firm’s benefit from better terms from suppliers, enjoy better investment opportunities and have lower cost of capital when their credit risk is lower. Firms incur a higher cost of debt and experience additional costs when their credit risk is higher. American studies find that firms use earnings management to influence credit ratings (Ali and Zhang 2008; Jung et al. 2013; Alissa et al 2013). Credit rating agencies have stated they assume financial statements to be reasonable and accurate (Securities and Exchange Commission, 2003; Standard and Poor’s, 2006) and they do not consider themselves to be auditors. They take the information in the financial statements as accurate. Therefore, there is a potential for managers to engage in earnings management to influence credit ratings. In South Korea, there have been numerous experiments with auditor legislation because of financial collapses due to earnings management in the 2000s. Therefore, a decomposition of the relation between opportunistic earnings management and credit ratings is an important consideration for Korean accounting academia. Previous Korean studies have examined whether credit ratings in period t are significantly related to level of earnings management in the same period; however, those studies fail to find the consistent results. It is widely known that credit rating agencies allow one year credit watch period to assess default risk before credit rating decision. Firms with an incentive to increase their credit ratings through earnings management will only realize if earnings management positively influences credit ratings in the following year. Therefore, we focus on establishing a relationship between the levels of earnings management at time t and credit ratings / changes at time t+1. Our study provides a more robust analysis by establishing if both accrual based and real earnings management in period t influences credit ratings and credit rating changes in period t+1. Using a sample of 1,717 Korean KRX firm-years from 2002 to 2013, we find a negative relation between earnings management in period t and credit ratings in period t+1, suggesting that firms with higher credit ratings have lower levels of earnings management. Moreover, we find that firms that experience a credit ratings change in period t+1 are less likely to engage in opportunistic earnings management in period t, suggesting that firms do not have the potential to increase credit ratings. We also find that firms that experience a credit rating increase in period t+1 have a negative association with opportunistic earnings management for accruals measures. Moreover, when we split our sample into firms that experience 1) a credit rating increase, 2) decrease and 3) remaining the same, we find that firms that engage in earnings management are more likely to remain unchanged or experience a credit rating decrease. Thus, taken together, we find no evidence of relationship between opportunistic earnings management and an increase in credit ratings in the South Korean public debt market. Our results may be of interest to regulators, credit rating agencies, market participants and firms that question whether level of earnings management in current year influences credit ratings in the subsequent period

Does conditional conservatism affect credit ratings? An analysis of Korean KRX bond issuers

We examine whether there is a relationship between conditional conservatism and credit ratings. Credit rating levels are the ‘opinion‘ of credit rating agencies about a firm’s default risk based on financial statements data and corporate governance information. In South Korea, credit rating levels are issued by National Information & Credit Evaluation (NICE), Korea Investor Services (KIS), Korea Ratings (KR) and Seoul Credit Rating & Information (SCI), and are used by bond investors, debt issuers, and governmental officials for decision making and legislative purposes. Accounting practices such as conditional conservatism have the potential to signal low default risk and financial stability. Accounting conservatism reflects a manager’s tendency to recognize “bad news” in a timelier manner than “good news” (Basu, 1997). The academic community continues to debate the merits of conservatism. However, the majority of studies suggest that conditional conservatism is an accounting practice with the potential to increase accounting quality (Watts, 2003; Roychowdhury and Watts, 2007; Ball and Kothari, 2008). In the U. S., numerous studies find an association between level of conservatism and credit ratings (Ahmed et al., 2002; Moerman (2006); Nikolaev (2007); Bauwhede (2007): Zhang, 2008; Peek 2010). Therefore, in the U.S., there is evidence to suggest that credit ratings agencies care about conditional conservatism as an accounting practice with the potential to influence default risk. In South Korea, there is evidence of a positive relation between accounting conservatism levels and credit ratings (Park et al., 2011). However, the association between credit rating changes and financial conservatism is a question left unanswered. Our motivation is to address this caveat. To our knowledge, our study is the first to analyze the association between conditional conservatism and credit ratings and credit rating changes using the two most popular conditional conservatism measures. We contribute to the literature by providing an evidence that conditional conservatism may influence a credit rating agency’s perception of default risk. We examine if conditional conservatism is associated with credit ratings based on the following; conditional conservatism is an accounting practice associated with reducing a manager‘s ability to 'inflate' net income; hence, constraining dividend has the potential to reduce a credit rating agency’s perception of risk. Credit rating agencies issue higher credit ratings to firms with lower default risk. Thus, because firms care deeply about maintaining or increasing their credit ratings, conservative reporting should have a positive a relation with credit rating levels / credit ratings changes. We perform numerous tests to establish the relation between conditional conservatism and credit ratings / credit rating changes. We investigate the relationship between a firm's credit ratings / credit ratings changes and conditional conservatism using a KRX firm sample of 1,310 firm-years from 2002 to 2013. First, we establish the levels of conditional conservatism using the accruals based Ball and Shivakumar (2005) and the market based Basu (1997) models. The results suggest that firms borrow equity in the form of public debt are conservative, consistent with previous studies. Next, we use a dummy variable approach to examine the relationship between conservatism and credit ratings for investment / non-investment grade firms. We find that investment and non-investment grade firms have statistically insignificantly different levels of financial conservatism. Thirdly, we test if conditional conservatism has a statistically significant relation with credit rating changes. We find that firms that experience an increase or a decrease in their credit rating levels from period t to t+1 are marginally more conservative compared to firms with consistent credit rating levels. Next, we test the relation between conditional conservatism and credit rating increases. Firms with higher levels of conservatism may benefit from a credit rating increase because an increase in conservatism indicates lower risk. We use a dummy variable approach to capture if conservatism in period t has the potential to influence a credit rating period in t+1. We do not find a statistically significant relation between conservatism and credit ratings for our entire sample. However, we find that there is a positive relation between conservatism in period t and a credit rating increase in period t+1 for investment grade firms. Credit ratings have significant implications for a firm’s access to capital. Firms below the investment grade level (BBB+ and below) are expected to face higher capital costs and face limited access to investor equity because of legislative restrictions compared to firms with investment grade bonds (A- to AAA). Credit ratings agencies may reward financially conservative firms above the investment grade threshold with a credit rating’s increase because conditional conservatism is considered an important risk metric for firms above the investment grade. Other metrics may be more critical to firms below the investment grade cut-off. Finally, we perform robustness checks for our main hypothesis. We find that firms that experience a credit rating increase in period t+1 have statistically significantly higher levels of conservatism in period t compared to firms experience a credit rating decrease or remain constant in period t+1, supporting our previous findings. Taken together, our results suggest that credit ratings agencies consider conditional conservatism when issuing credit ratings. Firms with higher credit ratings are generally more conservative. Moreover, conditionally conservative firms above the investment grade threshold can be rewarded with a credit rating increase

Do credit ratings influence the demand/supply of audit effort?

© 2020, Emerald Publishing Limited. Purpose: Firm management has an incentive to improve credit ratings to enjoy the reputational and financial benefits associated with higher credit ratings. In this study, the authors question whether audit effort in hours can be considered incrementally increasing with credit ratings. Based on legitimacy theory, the authors conjecture that firms with higher credit ratings will demand higher levels of audit effort to signal audit and financial quality compared to firms with higher levels of credit risk. Design/methodology/approach: The authors conduct empirical tests using a sample of Korean-listed firms using a sample period covering 2001–2015. Findings: The results show that firms with higher credit ratings demand higher audit effort in hours compared to client firms with lower credit ratings. The authors interpret that firms with higher ratings (lower risk) demand higher levels of audit effort in hours to reduce information asymmetry and to demonstrate that financial reporting systems are robust based on audit effort signaling audit quality. The authors also interpret that firms with lower credit ratings do not have incentives to signal similar audit quality. The authors also capture the “Big4 auditor expertise” effect by demonstrating that client firms audited by nonBig4 auditors demand additional audit effort with increasing credit rating compared to Big4 clients. Research limitations/implications: Audit effort is considered a signal of firm risk in the literature. This study’s results show evidence that audit effort is inversely related to firm risk. Practical implications: The results show that audit hour information is informative and likely managed by firm stakeholders. Internationally, it is not possible to capture the audit demand of clients because listing audit hours on financial statements is not a rule. Given that audit hours can be considered informative, the authors believe that legislators could consider implementing a policy to mandate that audit hours be recorded on international annual reports to enhance transparency. Originality/value: South Korea is one of few countries to list audit effort on annual reports. Therefore, the link between audit effort and credit ratings is unique in South Korea because it is one of few countries in which market participants likely monitor audit effort

The influence of firm efficiency on agency credit ratings

This paper examines the relationship between relative efficiency and credit ratings using a sample of Korean listed firms and finds a positive relationship in the subsequent period after adjusting for absolute efficiency. The results suggest that credit rating agencies consider relative efficiency as a variable that influences a firm’s ability to survive a business cycle. Interestingly, when we divide our samples into investment- grade and non-investment-grade firms, we find a different relationship. While we continue to find consistent results for the investment-grade group, we find a negative relationship between relative efficiency and credit ratings for non-investment-grade firms. We suggest “higher” levels of efficiency by non-investment-grade firms can be considered opportunistic or a form of distress, and potentially be the result of ineffective decision making. We conjecture that credit rating agencies have the ability to impose penalties of lower credit ratings on firms that engage in such behavior

Does the productivity of labour influence credit risk? New evidence from South Korea

Using a sample of 1,666 Korean KRX listed firm observations, we find a positive relation between the productivity of labor in period t and credit ratings in period t + 1, suggesting that firms that use the least amount of input (labor) to achieve output (sales) are considered to have decreasing levels of default risk. After we divide our sample into investment grade and non-investment grade firm samples, the relation changes. We find a consistent relation for the investment grade sample. However, the relation is negative for the non-investment grade suggesting that market participants capture NIG firm’s potential detrimental behavior

Mandatory audit firm rotation and Big4 effect on audit quality: evidence from South Korea

In South Korea, due to concurrent financial scandals, Korean legislators implemented two major audit policies in the 2000s; the mandatory audit “partner” rotation policy in 2000 and the mandatory audit “firm” rotation policy in 2006. The mandatory audit “firm” rotation policy was introduced as a mean to improve audit quality based on the auditor entrenchment hypothesis. In this paper, we compare the audit quality of firms subjected to mandatory audit “firm” rotation with two benchmark groups, a sample that adopted the policy voluntarily; the second group consists of the mandatory “firm” rotation sample in years prior, a period firms were subject to mandatory audit “partner” rotation. Using accrual-based measures as proxies for audit quality, we find evidence that audit quality of the mandatory rotation firm sample is lower compared to firms that voluntarily adopted the policy. Furthermore, we find evidence that audit quality of the mandatory rotation firm sample is lower compared to the mandatory audit partner firm sample. Additionally, we also find evidence that the mandatory audit firms rotation sample whose auditors were rotated from Non-Big4 to Big4 are generally associated with lower levels of abnormal accruals consistent with the argument that the audit quality of Big4 accounting firms is superior to Non-Big4 firms. Finally, longer audit tenure and switches to Big4 audit firms generally have a positive effect upon audit quality. These findings suggest that extended audit tenure improves audit quality due to accounting firm’s accumulated client specific knowledge. Thus, our evidence suggests that the mandatory audit firm rotation policy did not have the desired effect in a Korean context

An analysis of audit effort demand based on shareholder ownership power

PurposeAudit hour reporting is rare internationally. Thus, to what extent shareholders have the power to influence audit effort/hour demand is a question left unanswered. This study aims to use unique South Korean data to determine whether the increasing power of the largest foreign/domestic shareholders and blockholders can influence audit hour demand.Design/methodology/approachIn this study ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis is conducted using a sample of Korean listed firms over the 2004–2018 sample period.FindingsThe results show: as the percentage equity holding of the largest foreign shareholder and blockholder (>5%) increases, audit hour demand increases. As the shareholding of the largest domestic shareholder increases, audit hour demanded decreases. The association between audit fees/hours is not qualitatively indifferent, after controlling for the audit fee premium effect. Furthermore, the largest foreign shareholder is shown to demand increasingly higher levels of audit hours from Big4 auditors, relative to NonBig4. All results are consistent with audit demand theory.Originality/valueWhilst previous studies offer audit fee/risk interpretations, this study extends the literature by developing a framework to explain why audit hour demands differ for specific groups. Because audit hour information is rare internationally, the study has important policy implications

Conservative reporting and the incremental effect of mandatory audit firm rotation policy: a comparative analysis of audit partner rotation vs audit firm rotation in South Korea

In this paper, we take advantage of Korea's unique experiment with mandatory audit firm rotation (MAFR) and mandatory audit partner rotation (MAPR) to ascertain their influence on audit quality, proxied by conditional conservatism. Overall, we find that the implementation of MAFR did not have the desired effect. Firms that adopted MAFR demonstrate higher levels of conservatism in previous periods under MAPR (or compared to voluntary adopters). Furthermore, we find that audit tenure increases conservatism levels consistent with the auditor expertise hypothesis. However, whilst evidence suggests MAFR decreases audit quality on the whole, we find that firms that switch from non‐Big 4 to Big 4 auditors demonstrate higher conservatism because Big 4 auditors are more likely to demand conservative accounting practices, consistent with Big 4 audit firm knowledge superiority. Overall, the results suggest that MAFR's negative effect on audit quality can be mitigated by Big 4 auditor supervision